Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 011130
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
430 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL BE COOLER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE AND BRING WITH IT SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE
LOWLANDS. WE WILL SEE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE COMING
WEEK. CURRENTLY THE SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD GIVE US WARM AND PLEASANT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. TO
OUR WEST AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONALLY A SHORT WAVE/TROUGH WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW AND TRY AND GIVE US SOME
PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST (AND STRONGEST) OF THESE TROUGHS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...FIRST OUT WEST MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SPREADING
ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS STILL LOOK PRETTY
HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...RIGHT NOW ITS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SNOW WILL BE ABOVE 8K. THE TROUGH IS ABLE TO GRAB SOME
MOISTURE OUT OF THE PACIFIC...SO IT WILL HAVE SOMETHING TO WORK
WITH. I`M STILL NOT THINKING WE WILL SEE MUCH SNOW OR RAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT WE WILL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET. ON WEDNESDAY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WE WILL SEE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL DROP OUR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THEN ON THURSDAY THINGS GET
INTERESTING.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THAT AT THE SURFACE LATE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WILL SEE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE
REGION. BUT AT THE SAME TIME ALOFT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS SECOND SYSTEM DOESN`T HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT WHAT IS THERE IT MAKES GOOD USE OF.
BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME LOWLAND SNOW SHOWERS
BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW I`VE LEFT THE FORECAST SAYING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR EL PASO...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE SAYING IT COULD BE
ALL SNOW. FOR NOW IT IS TO EARLY TO BE TALKING ABOUT OFFICIAL SNOW
AMOUNTS...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE SAYING 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY BE
POSSIBLE. WE STILL HAVE SEVERAL DAYS TO GO. MY GUESS IS THAT AS WE
GET CLOSER THE COLD AIR WILL BE A PRETTY GOOD BET...BUT THE LACK
OF MOISTURE MAY KEEP MUCH FROM HAPPENING. BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WE WILL SEE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/12Z-02/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. WE WILL BE WARMER WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. WE MAY OCCASIONALLY SEE A HIGH LEVEL CEILING
THIS AFTERNOON OF SCT-BKN250. THEN LATER TONIGHT AFTER 06Z WE WILL
SEE LOWER CEILINGS ARRIVE OF BKN100. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM
180-240 AT AROUND 10 KTS. WE MAY SEE SOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE STRONGER WINDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE US
LOWER MIN RH`S AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. ON MONDAY WE WILL
BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ON
MONDAY SHOULD PICK UP BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. ON
TUESDAY WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. WE WILL AGAIN SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKE MONDAY WINDS WILL STAY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
COOLER...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. THEN ON THURSDAY
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR MOUNTAINS
SNOWS OR LOWLAND RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. NEXT
WEEKEND WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK TOWARD NORMAL WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  51  72  51  65 /   0   0  20  40  20
SIERRA BLANCA           71  48  71  51  64 /   0   0  10  30  20
LAS CRUCES              70  47  68  43  62 /   0   0  20  40  20
ALAMOGORDO              68  46  67  45  62 /   0   0  20  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              49  34  48  30  43 /   0  10  30  60  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   64  44  64  42  61 /   0   0  20  30  20
SILVER CITY             56  41  57  34  50 /  20  20  40  60  30
DEMING                  67  43  66  41  63 /   0   0  30  40  20
LORDSBURG               64  42  65  38  58 /   0  10  30  50  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  52  71  50  64 /   0   0  20  40  20
DELL CITY               71  43  71  46  66 /   0   0  20  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            75  50  75  53  68 /   0   0  20  30  20
LOMA LINDA              65  48  66  47  59 /   0   0  20  30  30
FABENS                  75  49  73  51  66 /   0   0  20  40  20
SANTA TERESA            71  49  70  47  64 /   0   0  20  40  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          68  49  68  48  63 /   0   0  20  40  20
JORNADA RANGE           67  41  67  41  63 /   0   0  20  40  20
HATCH                   68  45  68  44  64 /   0   0  20  30  20
COLUMBUS                67  48  67  45  63 /   0   0  20  30  20
OROGRANDE               70  49  70  48  65 /   0   0  20  40  20
MAYHILL                 57  38  57  36  52 /   0  10  30  60  30
MESCALERO               56  35  56  33  51 /   0  10  30  60  40
TIMBERON                56  39  57  37  50 /   0  10  30  60  30
WINSTON                 56  40  58  35  53 /  10  10  40  50  20
HILLSBORO               61  44  62  40  56 /   0   0  30  40  20
SPACEPORT               67  42  66  40  63 /   0   0  20  30  20
LAKE ROBERTS            55  38  55  33  50 /  20  20  50  60  30
HURLEY                  59  41  60  36  54 /   0  10  40  50  20
CLIFF                   62  40  62  35  57 /  20  10  40  50  30
MULE CREEK              58  35  58  29  52 /  20  20  40  50  30
FAYWOOD                 59  44  61  38  55 /   0   0  30  40  20
ANIMAS                  65  45  67  40  61 /   0  10  30  60  30
HACHITA                 67  44  68  40  62 /   0   0  30  40  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  45  68  42  62 /   0  10  30  60  30
CLOVERDALE              63  45  65  39  57 /   0  10  30  60  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE





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