Area Forecast Discussion
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487
FXUS64 KEPZ 281010
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
410 AM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A wet pattern will continue the next few days...though west of
the Rio Grande storms will be less numerous than the last couple
of days. Locally heavy rainfall will continue to be a threat. Then
toward next weekend moisture levels will drop somewhat as
westerly flow attempts to take over, which will significantly
reduce thunderstorm activity and allow temperatures to warm to a
little above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another active thunderstorm day should be in store as a weak upper
low continues to drift toward New Mexico from the west. It ever so
slowly weakens before leaving a weakness aloft over the area.
Drier air tries to penetrate from the west but deep moisture
should remain intact along and east of the Rio Grande through
midweek if not longer. The western portion could see a slight
decrease in thunderstorms the next two days and more so beyond
then. Meanwhile the eastern half will again deal with locally
heavy rainfall and flash flooding in spots.

The models continue to advertise drier westerly flow overtaking
the area toward next weekend, but it seems to be pushed back with
each model run --- forever stuck in days 5 to 7! As we get into
September it`s bound to happen so went along with the models and
greatly reduced thunderstorm activity after Thursday, though with
low confidence. Began increasing temps from a little below normal
to slightly above by then as well.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 28/12Z-29/12Z. P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-
BKN150-200 thru pd with sct to nmrs mountain and sct lowland 1-3SM
TSRA BKN040-060 mainly after 17Z. Wind gusts to 40kts with
thunderstorms...otherwise E to SE winds AOB 12kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A moderate low level easterly flow will be developing over the
region over the next couple of days which will keep deep moisture in
place. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
through midweek with temperatures dropping to slightly below normal
due to the precipitation and expected cloud cover. Winds out of the
east may occasionally be gusty over 20 mph but relative humidities
will remain high...generally above 30 percent during this period.
Vent rates however will be fair to good due to weak winds aloft.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 88  66  84  67 /  40  50  60  50
Sierra Blanca           86  64  83  63 /  50  40  60  40
Las Cruces              85  62  82  63 /  50  40  60  50
Alamogordo              87  63  84  62 /  50  40  50  50
Cloudcroft              67  47  64  47 /  70  60  90  70
Truth or Consequences   86  61  82  61 /  50  30  50  50
Silver City             81  56  78  57 /  60  40  60  40
Deming                  87  62  83  63 /  40  30  50  40
Lordsburg               90  62  86  63 /  40  30  50  30
West El Paso Metro      88  67  83  67 /  40  50  60  50
Dell City               87  64  84  62 /  50  30  50  50
Fort Hancock            89  67  86  66 /  50  30  50  40
Loma Linda              82  61  79  61 /  50  40  60  50
Fabens                  89  65  84  65 /  40  40  50  50
Santa Teresa            87  65  83  65 /  40  50  60  50
White Sands HQ          85  64  82  64 /  50  50  60  50
Jornada Range           85  61  82  61 /  50  40  60  50
Hatch                   86  63  84  63 /  50  40  50  50
Columbus                88  64  84  64 /  40  40  50  50
Orogrande               85  64  82  64 /  40  40  60  50
Mayhill                 73  51  69  50 /  70  60  80  70
Mescalero               76  52  72  52 /  70  60  80  70
Timberon                73  51  69  50 /  70  60  80  70
Winston                 79  51  76  51 /  70  40  60  50
Hillsboro               83  57  81  57 /  60  40  60  50
Spaceport               84  60  81  61 /  50  40  60  50
Lake Roberts            82  51  79  52 /  70  50  70  50
Hurley                  82  56  79  57 /  60  40  60  40
Cliff                   89  57  86  58 /  50  40  60  40
Mule Creek              85  53  83  54 /  50  30  60  40
Faywood                 84  57  81  58 /  60  40  60  50
Animas                  89  60  85  61 /  40  40  40  30
Hachita                 88  60  84  61 /  40  40  50  40
Antelope Wells          87  60  84  61 /  50  50  40  40
Cloverdale              83  58  79  59 /  50  50  40  30

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

01 Fausett



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