Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 281029
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
329 AM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WEST TEXAS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOWLAND AREAS WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH 50S MOST
AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER WINTER STORM WILL BRING
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A RAIN SNOW MIX TO THE LOWLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY UNDER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTY WILL HAVE PATCHES OF FREEZING FOG
THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING WITH ALL OTHER AREAS BEING MOSTLY SUNNY
TODAY. A COLD AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MOST
LOWLAND AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY OVERNIGHT BUT NOT QUITE
AS COLD.

MONDAY WILL SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES NEARER TO NORMAL AS A WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGS IN A WARMER AIR MASS. THIS WARMING WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER ON TUESDAY.

A STRENGTHENING WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN TURN EAST AND HEAD INTO WESTERN
ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING EASTERN PACIFIC
MOISTURE AS IT MOVES INLAND WITH DECENT RAIN AND SNOW POTENTIAL.
MODELS VARY ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WE COULD EXPECT FROM THIS
SYSTEM. A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WOULD LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.

UNCERTAINTY ASIDE...THE REGION SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AND A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR
THE LOWLANDS OF A LESSER AMOUNT. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR PRECIP WILL
OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MOUNTAIN
ZONES CAN EXPECT 3 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. SNOW FOR THE LOWLANDS WILL
BE MORE VARIABLE. THE SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A WARM WEDGE OF AIR OUT
AHEAD OF IT THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX FOR THE LAS CRUCES AND
EL PASO METRO AREAS WITH LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION. OUTLYING AREAS
THAT ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN ELEVATION LIKE T OR C MAY SEE MORE
SNOW THAN RAIN WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
FORECAST WILL BECOME MORE REFINED AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER.

THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION BY LATE
FRIDAY WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/12Z- 29/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT250. AREAS OF
FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY WITH
VSBY 1-3SM BR TIL 16Z. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFT 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONE MORE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE A QUICK WARM UP
OCCURS FOR MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OUT OF
THE WEST BEFORE A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
EAST TUESDAY. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON WESTERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL SNOW
IS EXPECTED FOR MOUNTAIN ZONES WITH A MIX POSSIBLE AT VALLEY
LOCATIONS. EXACT TIMING AND PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE STILL
QUESTIONABLE...BUT IT WILL GET COOLER WITH AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP FOR MOST ZONES THURSDAY THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 46  29  55  32  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           44  28  54  27  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              45  25  52  27  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              45  24  52  26  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              31  21  37  16  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   45  25  51  25  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             40  24  46  25  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  46  22  54  23  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               44  23  51  24  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      45  32  55  33  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               47  24  57  24  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            48  26  57  28  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              40  29  51  29  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  46  26  56  27  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            46  25  54  26  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          45  29  52  30  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           46  19  52  19  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   46  23  54  24  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                45  28  52  28  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               44  26  52  27  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 40  25  46  20  34 /   0   0   0   0  10
MESCALERO               38  23  44  18  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                37  23  41  22  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 42  22  47  22  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               43  25  50  25  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               46  20  52  20  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            39  22  46  23  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  42  24  49  24  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   44  21  49  22  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              42  15  49  17  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 41  26  49  26  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  48  24  54  26  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 46  21  54  22  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          48  22  56  23  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              46  24  53  28  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN




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