Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 261009
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
409 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR PUSHED INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY`S
HIGHS. BUT THE COOLER WEATHER WON`T LAST...WE`LL BE WARMER ON
FRIDAY AND EVEN WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN...BUT WE`LL RETURN TO
WARM...DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS ARRIVED AND WE WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM
OUR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS...BUT THE WINDS WILL SLOW BY THIS
AFTERNOON. OUR COOLER TEMPERATURES WON`T LAST LONG AS UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND FOR THE WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO
8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...A FEW LOWLAND LOCATIONS MAY EVEN FLIRT
WITH 90 FOR A HIGH ON SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT A QUICK MOVING
SHORT WAVE WILL UNDER CUT THE TROUGH. THE TWO MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH (DRIER)
THAN THE GFS (WETTER)...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE GIVING US AT LEAST
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING SO BY
TUESDAY WE WILL BE BACK INTO OUR DRY WEATHER PATTERN. FOR THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL GIVE US SOME BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 26/12Z-27/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. EAST WINDS MOVED IN OVERNIGHT
BEHIND A DECENT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THEY WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTIANS...BUT
WILL SLACKEN OFF AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNLIMITED EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME LOW CLOUDS IN
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTANS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT THE FRONT
WAS BASIC DRY ONLY BRINGING A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. WE WILL SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY
BUT WE WILL WARM BACK UP FOR THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND GIVE MOST THE AREA A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN. THAT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFF AND WE
WILL SEE MORE SUNNY...WARM WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END PART OF
NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT WILL SLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. NOT REALLY ANY PROBLEMS
WITH WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE MORE BREEZY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON
BUT RIGHT NOW STILL NO BIG WIND EVENTS ON THE HORIZON. TODAY WE
WILL SEE MIN RH`S UP A BIT DUE TO THE COOLER AIR...BUT BY THE
WEEKEND WE WILL SEE SINGLE DIGIT MIN RH`S IN THE LOWLANDS. ON
MONDAY WE WILL SEE ANOTHER SHORT UP TICK IN THE MIN RH`S BEFORE
WE DRY BACK OUT BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 67  42  77  51  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           63  38  73  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              67  39  76  46  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              66  38  76  46  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              48  32  57  41  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  39  76  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             63  37  71  45  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  69  38  77  45  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               69  38  77  46  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      68  44  76  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               66  38  78  47  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            68  40  78  49  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              61  41  71  50  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  67  39  77  49  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            67  40  76  49  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          66  41  75  50  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           68  36  76  44  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   68  38  77  46  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                67  39  75  47  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               66  40  75  49  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 54  34  67  44  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               55  33  65  42  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                55  34  64  43  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 61  34  70  42  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               65  39  74  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               68  37  76  45  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            63  34  70  42  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  64  36  73  45  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   71  36  78  44  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              69  31  76  38  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 64  37  72  46  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  70  39  78  47  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 69  37  77  45  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          70  36  78  44  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              68  38  76  46  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15/15




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