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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 160948
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
347 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS NOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA BUT IS ALREADY
PUSHING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO THE
BORDERLAND THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY TODAY WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING. THE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AS ODILE APPROACHES ARIZONA. BY THURSDAY EVENING THE
REMAINS OF ODILE SHOULD BE OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND ALLOW THE
HEAVIEST OF RAINFALL TO TAPER OFF. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY DRIER BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND COOL TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE JUST BELOW NORMAL
BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE FRONT COULD ALSO INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM ODILE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA AND CONTINUES TO
DRIFT NORTH-NORTHWEST. SOME OF ITS BANDS OF SHOWERS BEGAN ROTATING
UP TO THE CWA LAST NIGHT AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.
RIGHT NOW RAIN IS MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT IS SHOULD INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS PVA AND DIFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASE
WITH ODILE APPROACHING. THOUGH THE WEST MAY END UP WITH HEAVIER RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT...WENT AHEAD AND MODIFIED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL
AREAS TO BEGIN THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE SACS.

THE REMAINS OF ODILE WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A DEPRESSION AND THEN GO POST-TROPICAL AS IT REACHES
WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING. THE HEAVY RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
POINT...FINALLY TAPERING OFF SOME TIME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH EX ODILE PASSES TO OUR EAST. FROM NOW
TIL THEN CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIST. PW`S OF UP TO 1.6"
ARE PROGGED (THAT IS APPROACHING 200% OF NORMAL) THROUGH THE PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY UNSTABLE FOR
A TROPICAL INFLUENCE. MUCAPES OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG TODAY INCREASE
TO 500-1000 J/KG AS MID LEVEL TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOL AND DON`T BECOME
WARMER TIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SO EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...BEST GUESS AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IS WIDESPREAD .50-1.50" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP
TO 3" WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHER TERRAIN EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST COULD RECEIVE 5" OR MORE WITH THE HELP OF UPSLOPE.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THOUGH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS LONG GONE...PW`S OF AROUND .9"-1.2" REMAIN...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT RIDGE TO CAP MOST CONVECTION BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL GOOD BET BOTH DAYS WITH WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THOUGH GFS BRINGS PACIFIC TROUGH TO ARIZONA BOTH DAYS WHILE
ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW MUCH FURTHER WEST. GFS SOLUTION ALLOWS BACK DOOR
FRONT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS COULD INITIALLY
INCREASE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT BUT GFS SHOWS AIRMASS
BECOMING FAIRLY STABLE LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 16/12Z - 17/12Z...
WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC100 LAYERS 350. SCATTERED -SHRA BKN-OVC070 WITH
ISOLD 3-5SM -SHRA BR CIGS AOB 020. ADDITIONALLY...EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY AFT 17Z...WITH A FEW AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
SFC WINDS EAST 10-15 KTS. GUSTS TO 30 KTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
GENERALLY LIGHT TURBC OUTSIDE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HURRICANE ODILE WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET WEATHER TO
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LIKELY PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF
ONE-HALF TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCH WITH A FEW AREAS RECEIVING UP TO 3
INCHES. SOUTH AND EAST EXPOSED TERRAIN COULD SEE RAINFALL UP TO 5
INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY...
ESPECIALLY OVER AND AROUND THE BURN SCARS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE
EXTENDED LATER TODAY TO COVER THURSDAY. MIN RH`S FOR THE LOWLANDS
WILL REMAIN FROM 48-58% THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE MIN RH`S FOR THE
MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL REMAIN FROM 65-80% THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 78  67  80  68  82 /  70  70  50  70  60
SIERRA BLANCA           72  63  75  63  78 /  50  70  40  60  60
LAS CRUCES              77  65  79  65  80 /  70  70  50  70  60
ALAMOGORDO              78  66  80  64  81 /  50  60  80  60  60
CLOUDCROFT              60  51  58  49  61 /  70  70  80  70  70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   77  63  79  64  81 /  60  60  80  70  60
SILVER CITY             74  59  75  60  75 /  70  80  80  70  70
DEMING                  77  63  80  64  82 /  70  80  50  70  60
LORDSBURG               78  64  80  65  80 /  70  80  50  70  60
WEST EL PASO METRO      78  67  79  68  82 /  70  70  50  70  60
DELL CITY               79  65  79  65  82 /  50  70  50  60  60
FORT HANCOCK            79  64  80  67  84 /  50  70  50  80  60
LOMA LINDA              74  62  74  62  75 /  60  60  50  70  60
FABENS                  79  67  80  66  82 /  70  70  50  90  60
SANTA TERESA            78  65  79  66  81 /  70  70  50  70  60
WHITE SANDS HQ          76  65  77  65  80 /  70  70  50  70  60
JORNADA RANGE           77  61  79  62  81 /  70  70  70  70  60
HATCH                   76  63  77  64  80 /  70  70  70  70  60
COLUMBUS                78  67  79  65  82 /  70  80  50  70  60
OROGRANDE               76  66  77  66  79 /  70  60  50  70  60
MAYHILL                 67  55  67  54  69 /  70  70  80  70  70
MESCALERO               69  56  68  55  71 /  70  70  70  70  70
TIMBERON                67  54  66  52  68 /  70  70  80  70  70
WINSTON                 71  56  71  55  72 /  60  60  80  60  80
HILLSBORO               73  60  75  59  75 /  70  70  80  70  60
SPACEPORT               77  62  77  63  80 /  70  70  80  70  60
LAKE ROBERTS            73  56  74  55  75 /  70  80  80  70  80
HURLEY                  74  61  77  61  77 /  70  80  80  70  60
CLIFF                   75  55  77  54  78 /  70  80  80  70  80
MULE CREEK              72  52  76  51  76 /  60  80  60  70  80
FAYWOOD                 74  60  76  61  76 /  70  80  80  70  60
ANIMAS                  78  65  78  66  82 /  70  80  50  70  60
HACHITA                 78  61  80  62  82 /  70  80  50  70  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          77  61  79  62  83 /  70  80  50  70  60
CLOVERDALE              76  59  78  59  79 /  70  80  50  70  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

17 HEFNER







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