Area Forecast Discussion
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880
FXUS64 KEPZ 222015
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
215 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper level disturbance with a cold front will move
across New Mexico and west Texas on Thursday bringing windy
conditions with blowing dust on Thursday along with cooler near
normal temperatures Thursday and Friday. Another passing
disturbance will produce breezy to marginally windy conditions
along with seasonally warm dry weather Saturday and Sunday. More warm
dry weather with lighter winds are expected on Monday before
another disturbance possibly produces stronger winds again Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
More active zonal progressive weather pattern expected over the
next seven days. High amplitude upper wave now off the west coast
will further intensify as it moves east. By 18z Thursday a closed
low will be located over Utah with trailing trough extending into
Arizona. In addition a Pacific cold front will be entering
western New Mexico late Thursday morning. Approach of upper system
will also support lee cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado with
deepening lee trough trailing into eastern New Mexico. Low and mid
levels gradients will thus tighten with 90 kt mid level speed max
extending across the CWA. Inflow of warm dry air mass will also
cause dry lapse rates from the surface to a very high 500 mb level
allowing for stronger flow to mix downward. Thus windy conditions
are forecasted all locations on Thursday. Expect highest winds in
the east due to downslope affects plus the east will be subject
to more prolonged heating and deeper mixing as cold air advection
behind front will not occur until the afternoon. While moisture
inflow will be minimal strong dynamic forcing ahead of trough plus
uplift along front may produce mainly light rain over a few
locations with the rain possibly mixing with light snow higher
terrain.

Trough and front will be east of the CWA by late Thursday evening
with cool air advection lowering Friday high temperatures to near
normal. Low and mid level gradients will remain strong enough for
breezy to marginally windy conditions as both deep upper trough
and surface low will be located over the southern high plains.
Another weaker upper trough will then move across the southern
Rockies Saturday and early Sunday producing breezy to marginally
windy dry weather with temperatures a little above normal. Upper
ridge passing overhead will sustain warm dry weather into Monday.

GFS and ECMWF showing major timing and movement differences
concerning the next upper low entering the region from the west
after Monday. Will thus stay with ensemble superblend which
indicates breezy to windy conditions...isolated rain showers and
near normal temperatures later periods.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 23/00Z-24/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT150 SCT-BKN250 with W to SW winds decreasing to AOB
12KTS by 03Z. After 10Z increasing clouds of SCT-BKN050-060 with
isold -SHRA mainly N and W of a KALM-KDMN line.  Winds will be
increasing after 15Z out of the W to SW at 20-35G45KTS with blowing
dust reducing visibilities to 1-3SM.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A very active weather pattern setting up for the next week or two
with several upper level lows/troughs moving across the Rockies.
Breezy to windy days will be the norm through the upcoming week with
the strongest winds coming tomorrow with Red Flag Warning in effect
for eastern lowland zones.  A few rain showers are possible in the
mountains and west of the river. Temperatures will cool down for the
upcoming week with each of these troughs bringing near average
temperature air with them. Near red flag conditions are likely
Friday through Sunday before some low level moisture finally moves
into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 59  79  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           59  83  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              51  72  43  72 /   0  10   0   0
Alamogordo              56  77  44  72 /   0  20   0   0
Cloudcroft              41  54  28  49 /   0  30   0   0
Truth or Consequences   54  70  45  74 /   0  20   0   0
Silver City             46  60  37  62 /   0  40   0   0
Deming                  49  70  40  71 /   0  20   0   0
Lordsburg               45  67  38  68 /   0  30   0   0
West El Paso Metro      60  77  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               50  83  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            58  86  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              59  74  47  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  56  82  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            54  75  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          59  75  49  73 /   0  10   0   0
Jornada Range           48  73  39  73 /   0  10   0   0
Hatch                   51  72  43  74 /   0  20   0   0
Columbus                53  74  45  73 /   0  20   0   0
Orogrande               58  77  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 46  68  34  61 /   0  20   0   0
Mescalero               44  65  32  59 /   0  30   0   0
Timberon                44  63  32  56 /   0  20   0   0
Winston                 40  62  31  65 /   0  30   0   0
Hillsboro               48  67  39  71 /   0  30   0   0
Spaceport               50  71  42  73 /   0  20   0   0
Lake Roberts            34  59  27  64 /   0  40   0   0
Hurley                  44  63  35  64 /   0  40   0   0
Cliff                   40  65  33  71 /   0  40   0   0
Mule Creek              43  61  35  66 /   0  30   0   0
Faywood                 49  65  39  66 /   0  30   0   0
Animas                  48  69  40  70 /   0  30   0   0
Hachita                 46  71  39  70 /   0  20   0   0
Antelope Wells          48  69  40  72 /   0  20   0   0
Cloverdale              47  63  39  66 /   0  30   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from noon Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday
     night for NMZ413>417.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ112.

     Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ401>412.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110-111.

TX...High Wind Warning from noon Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday
     night for TXZ419>424.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for TXZ055-056.

     Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for TXZ418.

&&

$$

05 Rogash/26 Grzywacz



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