Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 300837
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
237 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Yesterday`s storm packed a bit more punch than expected as more
rain and snow than anticipated developed across the Borderland as
the system passed. Temperatures dropped as expected with Saturday
highs 20 degrees cooler than Friday`s. Today the storm has left
the region with drier air and warming conditions returning.
Temperatures will warm about 10 degrees today and the region will
see a return to the typical spring sunshine. Winds will continue
somewhat breezy but be lighter than we`ve seen in a week. For the
week ahead, drier and warmer through Wednesday. A bit of a cool
down for Thursday with a dry cool front passage. Next weekend
could bring our next rains as a strong Pacific storm system looks
to arrive

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Nil and benign weather conditions expected for most of this
forecast package as we generally sit near or under upper level
high pressure ridging for most of the next seven days. Yesterday`s
storm system has moved out into the plains overnight and is
pulling yesterday`s moisture gains out of our region with it. As
it exits Pacific ridging is developing off the west coast of the
U.S. This places our area under a deep NW flow pattern. A dry
continental fetch will keep our region dry and clear of most
clouds and any precipitation as we work through the upcoming work
week.

After this mornings unseasonably cool lows, today will begin
reversal of yesterday`s stark cool down as winds turn back WSW and
help to add heat to our atmosphere. H850 temps gain about 7-9C
and thus we should see about a 10 degree jump this afternoon on
area temps. PW`s will be crashing to about .25" and lower with a
dry vertical profile top to bottom. This will result in clearing
skies with sunny days and clear nights. For the first several days
of the forecast afternoons will be marginally breezy but well
below the wind speed magnitudes we`ve seen this past week.

Our feature of interest for this 7-day cycle is a passing upper
trough just to our NE on WED/THU. The high amplitude ridge to our
west should keep this upper level system to our east with most,
and maybe all moisture staying out of our forecast area. However
it will brush our region, and with a backdoor cold front pushing
in late WED/early THU we could see some clouds and a few showers
over the SACs during this period. The rest of the region should
remain dry. With the cool front push into the region THU will be
the cool day for this package with a drop of about 8 degrees.

More ridging aloft to rebound over the area late THU and FRI.
Warmer FRI with lighter winds both days.

Next weekend looks quite interesting, as a DEEP Pacific storm
system is shown to gain strength in several models as a blocking
ridge persists over the central U.S. The current solutions bring
this storm into the western U.S. for the weekend to introduce
unsettled weather (rain/storms/wind) to the region...and LINGER
into the next week as the blocking ridge hold it over the region
for an extended period. We`ll certainly be watching this!

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 30/12Z-01/12Z...
VFR conditions expected for all terminals through the PD. P6SM
VSBY. SKIES becoming SKC. By 18Z expect all areas to become W to
NW at 10-20KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
After an unseasonably cool and somewhat wet Spring day Saturday,
temperatures will start a quick rebound today and through mid
week,next week. Yesterday`s storm system is rapidly moving away to
the east with dry air quickly returning from the west. Dewpoints
will crash, with relative humidities falling back into the single
digits to lower teens. Winds will be lighter than those we`ve seen
over the past week, but continue to be breezy most afternoons for
much of the next 5 days. However speeds should remain just below
critical thresholds. Trends temporarily reverse late WED/early THU
as backdoor cool front moves in from the east to bring east winds
and slightly cooler weather Thursday. Vent rates will continue to
be in the very good to excellent categories as deep northwest
flow and deep mixing continues over region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 75  53  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           71  50  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              71  47  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              68  46  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              45  34  58  40 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   71  45  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             66  43  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  73  45  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               74  45  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      74  53  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               74  46  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            76  51  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              66  50  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  76  52  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            74  50  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          70  50  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           71  43  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   74  45  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                77  49  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               70  49  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 55  37  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               54  36  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                53  38  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 62  36  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               69  44  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               71  42  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            65  34  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  68  42  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   72  39  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              70  40  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 68  44  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  76  45  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 75  44  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          78  45  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              73  45  80  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14-Bird



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