Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 011057
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
357 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA WHICH BROUGHT THE LOWLAND
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ON SATURDAY...CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
AND TAKE ANY REMAINING MOISTURE WITH IT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL BEFORE WARMING
BACK TO NORMAL MONDAY. TUESDAY AND BEYOND...TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINTER STORM SYSTEM ABOUT OVER. DOUBLE LOW FROM YESTERDAY HAS
DEVOLVED INTO SINGLE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA AS NORTHERN LOW FROM
SATURDAY FILLED IN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. IN CONCERT WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH NOW OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
REMAINING MOISTURE WILL SHEAR OUT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. WOULDN`T
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES YET THIS MORNING BUT LEFT POPS OUT OF THE
ZONES OTHER THAN EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE BOOTHEEL...CLOSEST TO
THE UPPER LOW. DENSE FOG WAS A CONCERN AS LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
DEVELOPED MOST AREAS WITH THE WET GROUND. HRRR ALSO SHOWED THE LOW
DEPRESSIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 11Z...BUT IN THE END FIGURED
WITH CLOUDS STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WOULD JUST
MENTION FOG IN THE ZONES/GRIDS. ONE OTHER NOTE...MODERATE RAINFALL
OVER THE GILA REGION ON SATURDAY PRODUCED DECENT RISES IN THE GILA
RIVER. THE GILA RIVER AT VIRDEN ACTUALLY BRIEFLY TOPPED ACTION STAGE
BUT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY DROP TODAY. ALL OTHER GILA RIVER GAGES
REMAINED BELOW ACTION STAGE.

OTHERWISE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY
AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWER CLOUDS OUT ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES
OF HIGHER CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH...ESPECIALLY WITH OLD WEAKENED
PACIFIC FRONT ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. WEAK BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH RUNS DOWN THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. NOT MUCH COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS BUT ENOUGH TO
STUNT THE WARMING FOR A DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL
MONDAY AND THEN TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THE REST OF THE WEEK. BY NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOWLAND TEMPS COULD TOP 70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/12Z-02/12Z...
CONDITIONS MOSTLY VFR NOW WITH SCT/BKN100 WITH FEW LAYERS TO 250.
EXPECT PATCHY IFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME...WITH VISIBILITIES OF
ONE-QUARTER TO ONE MILE. CONDITIONS DISSIPATING AFTER 17Z. CLOUDS
DECREASING AFTER 20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS
OFF TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THROUGH
MID MORNING. MIN RH`S TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND DECREASING TO THE
40S BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS LOOKS VERY
UNEVENTFUL...WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY AND BEYOND. BY THE END OF THE WEEK HIGH TEMPS
COULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 57  34  61  37  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           55  31  59  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              56  32  59  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              56  30  57  33  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              40  22  45  27  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   54  33  58  34  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             51  31  54  33  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  57  31  60  33  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               57  30  60  33  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      59  35  61  39  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               55  29  60  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            56  35  61  37  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              52  31  55  35  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  57  33  60  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            57  32  60  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          57  34  59  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           56  29  58  32  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   59  32  62  33  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                58  35  60  36  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               56  32  59  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 45  26  52  33  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               46  24  48  28  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                47  27  50  33  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 49  29  54  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               52  33  55  35  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               56  31  59  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            51  29  54  31  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  53  31  55  31  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   55  25  57  22  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              52  22  56  19  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 53  33  55  34  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  58  30  62  33  65 /  10   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 58  31  61  32  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          58  30  62  31  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              54  32  60  33  63 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/99







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