Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 252002
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
202 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
While high pressure remains in the region, an easterly flow will
transport additional moisture into the area, increasing chances
for rain showers and thunderstorms this week. Lower temperatures
closer to seasonal normals will also occur as result of increased
cloudiness. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue
into the first part of next week with slightly above normal
temperatures expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The weather feature that has dominated the weather pattern for
much of the summer remains in place over the four corners region
of the desert southwest. Easterly flow along the southern flank of
the high has begun to transport moisture into the local area as
indicated by increasing dewpoints and precipitable water values
through the week. The additional moisture will increase chances
for showers and thunderstorms area wide, with numerous showers
and thunderstorms in the mountains and scattered storms across the
lowlands by mid week. Some storms will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall. The increased moisture and cloudiness
will also lower temperatures a few degrees with break from 100
degree days expected the rest of this week.

The center of the high pressure system will begin to shift
eastward during the weekend and first part of next week. this
shift will bring a more southerly flow to southeastern Arizona
and portions of southwest New Mexico which will keep decent rain
chances for those areas next week. Some drier continental air will
filter into south central New Mexico and far west Texas and limit
thunderstorm chances to a more isolated category. Reduced moisture
will also allow temperatures to rise a few degrees, possibly
reaching triple digits again early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 26/00Z-27/00Z...
ISOLD-SCT mainly mtn TSRAGS/VRB25G45KT/VIS 1-3SM/CIGS 050-080
through 03Z.  Activity moves to the lowlands with SCT
TSRAGS/VRB30G55KT/VIS 1-3SM/CIGS 090-110 THROUGH 06Z.  Activity will
concentrate mainly west of the Rio Grande.  Winds generally 220-
250/5-15kts over the bootheel.  290-320 5-10kts across the Gila
region and 140-170/05-10kts across Hudspeth and southern Otero
counties.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An increase in RH and resulting thunderstorm coverage is on tap
today through Wednesday...as an approaching impulse carries a broad
area of increased moisture over the region from the east. The upper
high will remain centered between the four corners and southern
Nevada...and circulation around this feature is what helps bring
this increased moisture in. Conditions start to dry out beginning
Thursday...as the impulse moves southwest into northern Mexico.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...gusty downburst winds...locally
heavy rainfall with rapid runoff and hail are the main impacts.
Storms will initially form over the mountains each afternoon...with
outflow driven secondary storm development spreading over area
lowlands during the early evening hours. Activity will generally
move from northeast to southwest or east to west.

Drier air is expected to return as early as Thursday and continue
through the first part of the weekend.  This will result in more
high based type storms...elevating the dry lightning threat.  Min RH
will climb roughly 5-10 percent each day through Wednesday. Vent
rates will be poor to good...as proximity of the high center aloft
maintains generally light winds aloft over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 77  99  76  98 /  20  20  20  40
Sierra Blanca           73  94  71  93 /  20  20  20  30
Las Cruces              73  97  72  96 /  20  20  30  40
Alamogordo              73  95  72  95 /  30  30  30  60
Cloudcroft              54  73  55  72 /  30  60  50  70
Truth or Consequences   73  96  73  96 /  30  30  30  40
Silver City             67  91  65  92 /  40  40  40  60
Deming                  73  99  72  98 /  30  30  30  50
Lordsburg               71  99  70  98 /  30  30  30  50
West El Paso Metro      77  98  76  97 /  20  20  20  40
Dell City               71  97  70  95 /  20  30  30  40
Fort Hancock            76  99  75  97 /  20  20  20  30
Loma Linda              71  92  70  91 /  20  30  30  40
Fabens                  75  99  73  97 /  20  20  30  40
Santa Teresa            75  99  74  97 /  20  20  30  40
White Sands HQ          75  96  74  94 /  20  30  30  40
Jornada Range           69  97  69  96 /  20  20  30  40
Hatch                   73  99  72  98 /  30  20  30  30
Columbus                75  99  74  98 /  30  30  30  40
Orogrande               74  96  73  94 /  20  20  30  50
Mayhill                 59  81  59  79 /  20  50  40  60
Mescalero               59  84  58  82 /  30  50  40  70
Timberon                57  81  56  80 /  20  50  40  60
Winston                 61  88  60  89 /  40  50  50  60
Hillsboro               68  95  67  94 /  40  30  40  60
Spaceport               72  95  70  94 /  30  20  40  40
Lake Roberts            58  91  57  91 /  50  60  50  70
Hurley                  67  92  66  92 /  40  30  40  60
Cliff                   65  96  63  97 /  40  40  30  60
Mule Creek              62  94  61  94 /  40  50  30  50
Faywood                 66  94  66  94 /  40  30  40  60
Animas                  71  99  71  99 /  30  30  30  50
Hachita                 71  99  72  98 /  30  30  30  40
Antelope Wells          70  97  70  96 /  30  30  20  40
Cloverdale              66  91  65  91 /  40  30  30  40

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

04/22 Lundeen/Tripoli


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