Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 161200
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
500 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today, but clouds will
be on the increase this afternoon. Sunday will see a good chance
for lowland rain and mountain snow showers. The precipitation will
linger into Monday morning before drying out by the afternoon. We
will see a warming trend through the middle of next week, before
much colder air moves into the region for the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Changes are coming to our weather in the next 36 hours and then
even bigger changes look to be coming for next weekend. A pair of
upper level troughs will be passing each other during the day
today. The first one is to our south and it will move off to our
northeast and have very minimal impact to our weather. The second
system, currently moving across southern California, will close
off late tonight over northern Mexico and begin to tap some
pacific moisture lingering there. The NAM model has finally come
in line with GFS and ECMWF and it now does look likely that we
will see a decent lowland rain event with some good snow in area
mountains above 7,000 feet. There is still some difference in
opinion on how much snow the mountains could get, but I have seen
enough consistency to go ahead and issue a winter storm watch for
our highest zone in the Gila Wilderness. Right now parts of this
zone could pick up 3 to 6 inches of snow by Monday morning. My
confidence in the snow totals for the Sacramento Mountains is
lower. Right now I`m keeping them on the lower side of things with
1 to 3 inches of snow possible there. The lowlands could see some
much needed rains as we could see 0.10 to 0.50 inches in the
lowlands. There isn`t a real strong push of cold air with this
system so I don`t expect snow levels to drop much, even by Monday
morning. Both the NAM and ECMWF are hinting that the system may be
a little slower to leave the region, but by late Monday, most of
the energy and moisture has moved further to the east leaving the
weakened upper level low lingering over New Mexico.

On Tuesday we will see a return of mostly sunny skies as a brief
westerly flow develops across the region. Temperatures on Tuesday
may still run a degree or two below average. For Wednesday and
Thursday we will see temperatures a few degrees above average. The
pattern and extended models are coming into better agreement for
the end of the week forecast into next weekend. Right now it does
look like we will see some pretty cold air move into the region on
Friday and linger through the weekend. At the same time the
extended models have been consistently showing an upper level low
in the area during some part of the Friday through Sunday time
frame. The current run of the ECMWF is faster and not as bullish
on the precipitation, while the GFS is stronger, deeper and has a
fair amount of precipitation across the area. With the cold air in
place the precipitation would most likely fall as snow both in
the mountains and in the lowlands. To summarize the forecast for
the end of next week into the weekend is to say, that it will
mostly likely be colder with a chance for unsettled weather. Still
way, to early to speculate if we will see a lot or a little of
snow (if any) next weekend, a lot of things can (and will) change
in this forecast in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 16/12Z-17/12Z
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Ceilings this
morning will start out unlimited, but by the afternoon we will see
some high ceilings of BKN250 move in from the west. Surface winds
this morning will be light, but will come around to the west by
late morning. We could see some breezy winds during the afternoon
hours. An approaching upper level storm system will bring lower
ceilings and precipitation chances to the entire region by Sunday
afternoon.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An approaching upper level storm system will bring a good chance
for lowland rain and mountain snow showers to the area on Sunday
into Monday. Snow levels will be around 7,000 feet with parts of
the Black range and Gila Wilderness seeing 3 to 6 inches of snow.
Lowland locations could see anywhere from 0.10 to 0.50 inches of
rain. For Tuesday through Thursday we will see dry weather with a
slow warming trend. Then on Friday we will see a cold front move
across the region dropping our temperatures back below average.
Winds this afternoon may be a little breezy, but should stay below
critical levels this afternoon and for much of the coming week.
Today will also be our driest day with min RH`s in the upper teens
in a few spots in the mountains, while the lowlands will be in
the 20`s to near 30%. For the rest of the forecast period we will
see min RH`s above 30% for all our area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 56  40  54  39 /   0   0  60  40
Sierra Blanca           55  36  58  39 /   0   0  40  30
Las Cruces              55  36  50  36 /   0   0  60  40
Alamogordo              51  35  49  35 /   0   0  60  40
Cloudcroft              40  24  31  25 /   0   0  70  60
Truth or Consequences   54  32  46  34 /   0   0  50  40
Silver City             50  32  42  33 /   0  20  70  40
Deming                  55  37  51  34 /   0  10  60  40
Lordsburg               57  36  53  36 /   0  30  60  40
West El Paso Metro      55  39  53  39 /   0   0  60  40
Dell City               57  34  57  37 /   0   0  40  40
Fort Hancock            59  36  61  40 /   0   0  40  40
Loma Linda              51  37  50  36 /   0   0  50  40
Fabens                  58  35  57  38 /   0   0  50  40
Santa Teresa            55  37  53  37 /   0   0  60  40
White Sands HQ          54  37  52  37 /   0   0  70  40
Jornada Range           54  32  50  33 /   0   0  70  40
Hatch                   56  35  49  35 /   0   0  60  40
Columbus                56  39  54  37 /   0  10  60  40
Orogrande               53  37  54  36 /   0   0  60  40
Mayhill                 49  29  35  30 /   0   0  60  60
Mescalero               47  27  36  29 /   0   0  60  50
Timberon                43  27  33  29 /   0   0  70  50
Winston                 54  26  38  27 /   0   0  60  40
Hillsboro               56  31  43  32 /   0   0  60  40
Spaceport               52  31  45  33 /   0   0  60  40
Lake Roberts            51  26  37  25 /   0  20  70  40
Hurley                  52  31  45  34 /   0  20  70  40
Cliff                   54  30  45  30 /   0  20  70  40
Mule Creek              52  32  43  33 /   0  30  70  40
Faywood                 52  32  45  33 /   0  10  60  40
Animas                  58  38  57  35 /   0  30  50  40
Hachita                 59  37  54  34 /   0  20  60  40
Antelope Wells          59  37  52  35 /   0  30  60  40
Cloverdale              54  38  50  35 /   0  30  60  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for
     NMZ402.

TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice



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