Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 300833
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
233 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LONG LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE MARKED BY COMPLETELY
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE BORDERLAND. EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUN AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWLAND TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
TRYING TO HIT 100. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY THE WARM AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE REGION WILL RECEDE AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK IN FOR
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY ON INTO
THE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE S
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. DESERTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH DEEP NORTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY WINDS
OVER THE REGION A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE FROM ABOUT 12KFT
MSL AND ABOVE. THERE IS STILL A THIN SLIVER OF MOISTURE AT MID
LEVELS BUT IT IS ONLY GOOD FOR A FLAT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUD
FIELD WITH DAYTIME HEATING. AT THE SURFACE THE AIR IS ALSO QUITE
DRY WITH DEWPOINTS HAVING FALLEN INTO THE 30S AND 40S. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THE PRIMARY EFFECT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
HEAT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 5 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 3-DAY LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. THUS
LOWLANDS WILL SEE U90S WITH SOME LOCATIONS NEARING 100 DEGREE
AFTERNOONS. THE WEATHER REMAINS PRETTY CONSTANT THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.

TODAY THERE IS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT THAT WILL DROP SE OVER THE SACS
IN THE UPPER FLOW. SOME MODELS WANT TO SPILL OUT A BIT OF PCPN
OVER THE S CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTN/EVE...BUT MOISTURE CONTENT
DOES NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME ENHANCED BUILDUPS. THUS
NO POPS IN THE FORECAST.

BY WEDNESDAY WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME MOISTURE CREEP BACK INTO THE
REGION. FIRST SE LOW-LEVEL WILL IMPORT SOME GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
E AND SE ZONES OF FAR WEST TX AND S CENTRAL NM. BY THURSDAY
MORNING THE GULF HIGH CONTRACTS EAST ENOUGH TO BRING BACK SOME
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEST. THIS ALLOWS SOME MOISTURE TO
MOVE IN OUT OF MEXICO AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES. FOR NOW WE`VE FOCUSED POPS OVR THE MTNS AND THE W ZONES FOR
WED AND THEN GIVE ALL ZONES A SHOT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIODS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STILL BE OVER THE REGION AND THIS MAY
TEMPER THE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE THROUGH THESE WETTER
PERIODS...BUT WITH GOOD SURFACE HEATING WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DESTABILIZE BEYOND ANY CAPPING. WITH MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WE
SHOULD BRING THE TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 30/12Z - 31/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AS DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND A SOLID BREAK IN
THE MONSOON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...KEEPING ANY MOISTURE AT BAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME MOISTURE WILL WORK BACK
INTO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 15 PERCENT DESPITE THE
DRYING TREND...AND VENT RATES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FAVORABLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND..AVIATION...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 96  73  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           92  66  93  66  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              95  67  97  65  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              94  67  96  66  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              72  49  75  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   93  67  96  65  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             88  63  89  62  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  96  65  98  63  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               95  64  96  64  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      96  72  98  71  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               97  66  98  67  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            96  71  98  70  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              91  68  90  69  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  96  69  97  70  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            96  70  97  70  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          96  67  95  66  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           94  64  96  63  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   96  64  98  65  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                95  68  95  65  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               96  68  96  67  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 81  56  83  56  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               83  55  84  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                84  56  84  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 82  57  84  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               88  61  89  65  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               92  65  95  66  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            86  57  87  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  90  63  91  63  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   92  53  94  55  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              89  50  90  52  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 88  62  89  63  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  92  67  94  66  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 95  65  96  65  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          92  64  94  67  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              89  65  90  66  91 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD




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