Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 062000
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
200 PM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS
THIS WEEKEND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN AREA THUNDERSTORMS. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL PRODUCE WARMER MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS LATER NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTER NOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT EXTENDING ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
INFLOW OF WARM DRY AIR PLUS DIURNAL WARMING WILL RESULT IN DRY
LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
AROUND 50 TO 60 KT WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THUS STILL EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT FAR EASTERN ZONES WITH SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RESULTING
IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THUS FAR EASTERN AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION LOWERING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. UPPER LOW CENTER
NOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MEANWHILE EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND WHILE ANOTHER WEAKER LOW CENTER DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT AS THIS HAPPENS WITH SATURDAY WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE BREEZY
CATEGORY MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THIS SECOND LOW CENTER BECOMES AN OPEN
WAVE OR TROUGH AXIS ROTATING EASTWARD AROUND PRIMARY LOW CENTER
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING DYNAMIC LIFT VIA DIFFERENTIAL PVA ALONG WITH
COOLING ALOFT WHICH WILL MAKE AIR MASS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. THESE
FACTORS MAY INDUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER MAINLY FAR NORTHERN
AND FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

AFTER TROUGH PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT A SUBSIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WHILE LEE SURFACE
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED TO THE WEST WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW CAUSING CONTINUED DRY BUT WARMER WEATHER. LONGER
RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE BLEND DO SHOW WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY BY FRIDAY WITH ATTENDANT MOISTURE INFLOW POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A FEW STORMS EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...07/12Z-08/12Z.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR SW U.S. MOVING INTO SRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES
THIS WEEKEND. 00Z-06ZZ FEW-SCT 070-100 FEW-SCT250 W OF SIERRA BLANCA
TX - CLOUDCROFT LINE WINDS BECOMING SW 15-25KTS G35KTS. LCL
WSW30G40KTS 3SM BLDU UNTIL 04Z E OF THIS LINE SCT050-080 SCT-BKN100-
200 LCL 060BKN 6SM -TSRA UNTIL 06Z. WINDS SSW 12 G 22 KTS. AFT
06ZALL AREAS  FEW-SCT 070-100 SCT250 WINDS WSW-WNW 15G27KTS. OCNL
MDT TURBC OVR NR MTNS E SLOPES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL GENERATE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS EAST OF AN EL PASO - ALAMOGORDO LINE WILL SEE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME CARRY A THREAT OF DRY
LIGHTNING. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES BECOMING MUCH COOLER. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE WEEKEND. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS WILL OCCUR NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 60  81  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           58  84  52  78 /  20   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              52  76  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              54  78  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              39  54  35  53 /   0   0   0  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   51  73  47  72 /   0   0   0  20
SILVER CITY             42  66  39  65 /   0   0   0  20
DEMING                  48  73  45  72 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               43  73  42  73 /   0   0   0  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      59  80  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               53  84  48  80 /  20   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            59  87  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              57  78  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  59  83  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            56  79  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          57  77  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           50  76  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   50  76  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                51  78  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               57  78  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 46  65  41  63 /  10   0   0  10
MESCALERO               44  64  40  64 /   0   0   0  20
TIMBERON                43  63  39  62 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 38  65  36  64 /   0   0   0  30
HILLSBORO               47  71  43  70 /   0   0   0  20
SPACEPORT               50  74  45  74 /   0   0   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            35  65  32  65 /   0   0   0  20
HURLEY                  41  68  38  67 /   0   0   0  20
CLIFF                   37  71  36  70 /   0   0   0  30
MULE CREEK              34  68  33  67 /   0   0   0  30
FAYWOOD                 43  70  40  69 /   0   0   0  20
ANIMAS                  45  74  45  75 /   0   0   0  10
HACHITA                 45  75  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          46  74  44  75 /   0   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              43  71  42  70 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ110>112.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ402>411.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ055.

&&

$$

05 ROGASH/20 NOVLAN



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