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FXUS64 KEPZ 302048
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
248 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED SHARPLY TO THE WEST AS MUCH
DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED IN FROM THE MIDWESTERN U.S. THIS MEANS THE
FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT TO AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER WITH FEWER CLOUDS. TUESDAY...AND MORE SO FOR MID WEEK...
THE MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN TO ALL AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES BACK TO
ALL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
INCREASED MOISTURE LOOKS TO ARRIVE FOR BETTER WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE NEAR TERM WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT REMARKABLE
DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER ALL BUT
THE AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE DROPPING WITH MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME SITES ARE READING
IN THE 40S. PW ON THE AM SOUNDING WAS JUST OVER AN INCH BUT MODEL
PROGS SHOW IT DROPPING TO BELOW 3/4" THIS AFTN. MAY SEE A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM EAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY SHOULD BE
QUICK TO DISSIPATE. THUS ALL POPS FOR THIS EVENING ARE WEST...AND
THE EAST IS POP-FREE. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER.

FOR MONDAY THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH THE UPPER
HIGH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING WEST OF THE REGION. THE
DIVIDE FOR ADEQUATE MOISTURE SHOULD BE THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH
AREAS WEST HAVING RAIN/STORM CHANCES...AND AREAS EAST BEING DRY.
TEMPS WILL STAY WARM.

TUESDAY THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS AN EASTWARD SHIFT BACK OVER THE
CWFA. WITH THE HIGHS RETURN MOISTURE BEGINS TO FILTER BACK IN
FROM THE WEST. TIMING MAY BE LATE TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE FAR EAST ZONES TO LINE UP WITH HEATING AND INSTABILITY...SO
FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD...DRY FORECAST FAR EAST...BUT ALLOW POPS
BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

WED-FRI THE PATTERN REMAINS STATIC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE PARKED
OVER THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE AREA
UNDER THIS BROAD AREA OF GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPS.
THUS THE FORECAST EACH DAY WILL REPEAT WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS EACH AFTN/EVE...AND SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY FROM NOON ONWARD. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE AND DAILY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS INTERESTING AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH AND
ALLOWS A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN TO SQUEEZE IN FROM THE WEST
AS A WEST COAST TROUGH PRESSES EASTWARD. IN THIS FLOW WILL BE MORE
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE SHORTWAVES...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD ADD TO
STORM/RAIN CHANCES. FINALLY...THE MODELS INDICATE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO PUMP SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASES
INTO THE REGION...AND MAY ALSO TRACK IN WITH ADDED DYNAMICS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. A BIT FAR OUT TO HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO...BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING IT.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 31/00Z-01/00Z.
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER MOST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A STRAY
SHALLOW SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT ELP AND LRU...AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES AT TCS/DMN.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER CLOSER TO THE AZ BORDER.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.  TSRA
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLOWLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
PLUME SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST.

25-HARDIMAN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN LIMITING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GILA REGION AND
LOWLAND AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH JUST SOME
SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. A STRAY LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE
SACRAMENTOS...BUT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE ISOLATED AND
SHORT-LIVED.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST BUT WEAKEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH MOISTURE WORKING BACK IN FROM THE WEST VERY SLOWLY
AND INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST EACH DAY THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK. WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL WITH OVERALL RH
VALUES SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK AS PRECIP EXPANDS.

25-HARDIMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 68  96  69  97 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           64  96  65  96 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              64  95  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              65  96  66  96 /   0   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              48  73  50  74 /   0  20  10  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   64  92  65  91 /  20  20  20  30
SILVER CITY             62  86  63  86 /  30  40  40  40
DEMING                  63  94  65  95 /  20  20  20  20
LORDSBURG               62  94  64  93 /  20  30  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      68  97  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               63  98  64  98 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            65  98  67  98 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              65  93  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  64  98  67  98 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            67  95  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          66  96  67  95 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           64  95  65  95 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   64  96  64  95 /   0  20   0  20
COLUMBUS                64  95  65  95 /  10   0  10  20
OROGRANDE               66  96  67  96 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 53  81  56  82 /   0  20  10  30
MESCALERO               53  82  56  83 /   0  20  10  30
TIMBERON                55  81  57  82 /   0  20  10  30
WINSTON                 54  83  58  82 /  30  50  30  50
HILLSBORO               61  91  65  91 /  20  40  20  40
SPACEPORT               64  94  65  93 /   0  20   0  20
LAKE ROBERTS            51  85  54  85 /  30  50  40  50
HURLEY                  62  88  63  88 /  20  30  40  30
CLIFF                   56  90  56  90 /  20  30  40  20
MULE CREEK              54  88  56  88 /  20  40  30  20
FAYWOOD                 61  90  64  89 /  20  30  30  30
ANIMAS                  64  93  64  92 /  20  30  30  30
HACHITA                 62  93  63  93 /  20  20  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  90  62  89 /  20  30  30  30
CLOVERDALE              60  87  64  86 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/25


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