Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 111107
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
407 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE WILL SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVE
INTO THE REGION BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SUNNY DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RUNNING ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE YESTERDAY`S DISCUSSION `NUF SAID. JUST KIDDING...BUT
THERE IS SOME TRUTH IN THAT. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THE RIDGE WILL GIVE US MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE AND ALLOW A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIP INTO THE
REGION...BUT HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THEN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETURN. WEATHER FOR THE PAPAL VISIT ON
WEDNESDAY IS NOW LOOKING GOOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS US DRY...COOLER WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOONS WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW I WILL STICK WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION OF
THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 11/12Z-12/12Z
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS (AND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND). WE WILL SEE
UNLIMITED CEILINGS TODAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL BE PRETTY DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...BUT WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER AND IT LOOKS TO
STAY IN CONTROL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE
WILL GIVE US MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. MIN RH`S WILL BE VERY DRY
WITH READINGS DROPPING TO NEAR 10% IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY. FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MIN RH`S BUT STILL IN THE MID TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND
NEAR 20% IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 72  37  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           70  34  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              72  30  71  34 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              70  31  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              53  29  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   70  32  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             69  31  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  73  29  73  32 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               72  28  73  31 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  38  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               71  30  73  33 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            72  35  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              69  38  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  71  34  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            72  32  72  35 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          72  35  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           71  27  71  31 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   72  29  73  33 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                71  31  73  34 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               71  36  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 64  33  67  33 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               62  29  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                62  33  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 68  30  68  33 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               71  30  71  33 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               71  30  72  33 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            70  23  69  24 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  70  29  70  31 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   72  23  73  25 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              73  23  73  25 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 71  30  70  32 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  74  30  75  32 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 74  28  74  30 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          73  29  73  32 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              74  31  74  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE


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