Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 222046
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
246 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO DOWN TO EL PASO
WILL HELP KICK OFF A FEW EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER THE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST...ENDING ANY CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS
IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BORDERLAND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL. BY SUNDAY THE HIGH WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS EAST AS THE UPPER WESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS. A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING AFTERNOON BREEZES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A MOUNTAIN SHOWER ON
SUNDAY. THIS DRY AND WARM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ABOUT CLAYTON TO EL
PASO. CONSIDERABLE CU/TCU HAS DEVELOPED WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH ALONG WITH STRONG CU DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THIS EVENING
EAST OF EL PASO AS A FEW TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN MEXICO JUST
SOUTH OF EL PASO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. THE CU GROWTH TO THE WEST
SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. THE TROUGH AND THREAT OF RAIN SHOULD
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY MID EVENING TONIGHT.

MODELS HAVE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT THROUGH SUNDAY. PATTERN
MAINLY DRY AND WARMER BUT MODELS...ESPECIALLY GFS...SHOW A SLIVER OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD AND ENTRAINING INTO SHORT WAVE
SATURDAY OVER ARIZONA. THIS WAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY. DID PUT TOKEN POPS IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FUTURE MODELS RUNS TO SEE IF THEY BEGAN PLOTTING QPFS
FOR THIS FEATURE.

AFTER SUNDAY ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. GFS KEEPS STRONG ZONAL
PATTERN OVER THE CWA WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
ROCKIES ON MONDAY. THIS WOULD MEAN DRY WEATHER WITH A BREEZY
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE SAME TROUGH MONDAY AND DRAGGING IT
THROUGH TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD LIKELY MEAN A
WINDY MONDAY AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FOR THE SAC MTNS. BOTH MODELS SHOW
DRY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTING AFTER TUESDAY BUT WITH CONTINUED
DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE OF TROUGH/RIDGE PAIRS AND TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/00Z-24 /00Z...
WEST OF AN ELP-ALM LINE FEW-SCT 040-060 120-150 250.
WINDS GNLY LGT/VRBL BECOMING AFT 18Z 260/07KT.  NIL LGT TURBC ONR
MTNS BLO 15K MSL. EAST OF AN ELP-ALM LINE FROM 00Z-12Z:
SCT-BKN030-050 SCT-BKN100-120 (ISOLD CB/TS TIL 06Z VRBL25G35KT 4SM
-TSRA BKN030CB OVC100). 06Z-12Z SCT-BKN 020-030 E OF LCL MTNS PY
BR/FG 10Z-14Z LOWEST ELV VSBY <3SM. AFT 12Z: SEE DISCUSSION WEST OF
ELP-ALM LINE.

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A DRIER AND WARMER SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND SOME BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MIN RH WILL RUN IN THE
45% TO 55% RANGE ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY DROPPING ABOUT 10% OVERALL ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 53  79  55  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           49  77  50  78  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              49  78  50  79  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              47  78  49  79  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              34  62  36  65  38 /  10   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   50  76  51  77  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             46  72  49  75  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  46  78  47  79  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               48  79  48  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      52  79  57  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               44  77  45  79  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            53  80  55  82  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              50  74  53  79  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  49  80  51  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            48  78  53  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          52  77  54  78  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           40  78  42  79  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   44  77  47  78  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                50  78  52  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               51  77  53  79  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 42  68  42  72  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               36  70  38  72  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                38  68  39  71  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 42  73  45  72  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               47  74  50  75  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               43  77  47  78  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            42  73  44  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  47  74  49  77  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   38  78  40  79  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              35  75  36  78  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 47  73  50  76  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  48  81  50  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 47  80  47  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  81  46  83  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              47  80  50  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/NOVLAN








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