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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 291056
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
457 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER HIGH OVER WEST TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OVER TO THE NEW MEXICO
BOOTHEEL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND WILL DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY
NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESULTANT SOUTHERLY FLOW THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS BROUGHT PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP INTO THE BORDERLAND FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
EAST...ADDING MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AT LOWER LEVELS. THIS
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...AND WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AREAS OF FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND THEN FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS CLOUDS AND RAIN INCREASE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH NOW CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUING OVER THE AREA WEST OF THE HIGH. TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PW`S
ARE AROUND 1.3" AREA WIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL
MOVE OVER SW NEW MEXICO/SE ARIZONA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD
INITIALLY INHIBIT SOME CONVECTION WITH WEAK TO MODERATE CAPPING BUT
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THE CAPPING. KEPT
HIGHEST POPS NORTH DUE TO OROGRAPHICS OR AREAS JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM
TO THOSE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH. EXPECT SIMILAR RESULTS ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH BACKDOOR COOL FRONT MOVING IN TO THE EASTERN CWA
IN THE EVENING MAY RAMP UP THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN ZONES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES AS FAR AS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND MAYBE EVEN TO THE ARIZONA BORDER. THIS WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY SERVE AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED STORM COVERAGE ALL AREAS FOR
THESE DAYS. WITH PW`S CONTINUING IN THE 1.2" TO 1.4" RANGE AND LIGHT
STEERING FLOW ALOFT (GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS) FLASH FLOODING IS OF
A MAJOR CONCERN. MAY NEED WATCHES ISSUED BY TOMORROW OR EARLY
THURSDAY. ECMWF LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR SO CONFIDENCE PRETTY HIGH ON
THIS SOLUTION.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO WITH INCREASING EAST FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL BEGIN
PUSHING MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST. POPS WILL CERTAINLY LOWER IN THE
EAST IF NOT END ALL TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/12Z - 30/12Z...
TIL 15Z...SCT-BKN120 WDLY SCT -SHRA BKN100...THEN CLEARING. DVLPG
AFT 17Z...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...SCT-BKN110 SCATTERED -TSRA WITH
A FEW STORMS WITH CIGS AOB 030 AND VSBYS BLO 2SM +TSRA. CONDS DVLPG
OVER THE LOWLANDS AFT 21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT HAS SHIFTED OVER TO WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING.
FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IS MAINLY SOUTHERLY OVER THE FIRE ZONES AND
CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE UP TO THE AREA. TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL SEE SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED LOWLAND
STORMS. WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...A FEW STORMS COULD STILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND AREAS OF FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
RECENT BURN SCARS. MIN RH`S LOWLANDS WILL RUN 20-30% TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND THEN INCREASE THURSDAY AND BEYOND. MIN RH`S FOR THE
MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL RUN 25-35% TODAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN INCREASE.

BACK DOOR COOL FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...SO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALL AREAS.
WITH MOISTURE PERSISTING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BECOME
MORE OF A RISK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND THEN FALL A BIT BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 95  77  97  75  93 /  10  20  20  20  40
SIERRA BLANCA           90  74  93  72  90 /  10  20  10  40  40
LAS CRUCES              93  71  96  71  92 /  10  20  20  20  40
ALAMOGORDO              94  72  97  70  94 /  30  20  20  40  60
CLOUDCROFT              68  50  69  48  64 /  40  20  30  50  80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   92  70  95  68  92 /  30  20  20  20  40
SILVER CITY             85  62  85  60  83 /  30  30  20  30  60
DEMING                  93  71  96  69  92 /  10  20  20  20  30
LORDSBURG               92  70  95  68  92 /  10  20  20  20  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      95  76  98  74  94 /  10  20  20  20  40
DELL CITY               94  68  96  66  92 /  10  20  20  50  40
FORT HANCOCK            97  74  99  72  95 /  10  20  10  30  40
LOMA LINDA              86  66  90  65  87 /  10  20  20  30  40
FABENS                  96  74  98  72  94 /  10  20  20  20  40
SANTA TERESA            94  73  97  71  92 /  10  20  20  20  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          92  73  95  71  92 /  10  20  20  20  40
JORNADA RANGE           94  68  97  65  91 /  10  20  20  20  40
HATCH                   93  69  96  67  92 /  20  20  20  20  40
COLUMBUS                93  71  96  69  93 /  10  20  20  20  30
OROGRANDE               95  71  98  69  95 /  10  20  20  40  50
MAYHILL                 77  60  79  58  75 /  40  20  30  50  80
MESCALERO               79  57  81  55  77 /  40  20  30  50  80
TIMBERON                77  56  79  54  75 /  40  20  30  50  70
WINSTON                 82  61  85  59  82 /  50  30  30  30  80
HILLSBORO               87  67  91  66  88 /  30  20  20  20  30
SPACEPORT               92  70  95  68  91 /  30  20  20  20  40
LAKE ROBERTS            84  56  87  54  84 /  40  40  30  30  70
HURLEY                  85  60  88  59  82 /  20  30  20  20  50
CLIFF                   84  62  87  58  86 /  30  30  20  20  60
MULE CREEK              84  58  87  56  86 /  40  30  20  20  60
FAYWOOD                 87  64  91  63  88 /  20  20  20  20  40
ANIMAS                  93  72  96  70  93 /  10  20  20  20  30
HACHITA                 93  69  96  67  93 /  10  20  20  20  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          93  72  96  70  93 /  10  20  20  20  30
CLOVERDALE              87  62  91  61  88 /  20  20  20  20  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER








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