Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 050137
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
837 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER HAVE DEVELOPING
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS EVENING. HI RES MODELS SUGGEST
THESE MAY BE A PART OF MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AT TIMES WITHIN A
VERY WEAK ZONE OF ELEVATED THETA E ADVECTION...BUT MAY SEE A
SLIGHT DOWNTURN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT WITH LARGER SCALE
MORE IN FAVOR OF SUBSIDENCE FOR A WHILE...BEFORE PICKING UP SOME
WEAK LIFT FORCING AGAIN LATE. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER SEEMS TO BE
BEHAVING THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL BE AMONG THE MORE PLEASANT FOR
MOST WITH LIGHT WINDS...MILD TEMPS...LOWER DEWPOINTS...AND PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LOOKING FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH CLOUDS THIN OUT AND
WINDS TURN A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. OTHER THAN THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE AREA. THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH WHAT LOOKS
LIKE A LITTLE TOO MUCH DRY AND WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS
SHOULD LEAD INTO A PLEASANT EVENING AND WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LOWER
END CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 60S TONIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE WEATHER PATTER SEEMS TO BE UNDERGOING SOMEWHAT OF A
TRANSITION...BUT FOR NOW THE IDEA OF RIDGE FLATTENING WAVES BRINGING
PERIODIC EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL APPLIES TO THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEEKEND PERIOD. THE EARLY PART OF THIS TIME
HAS ONE SYSTEM EXITING BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND ANOTHER WAVE COMING
IN THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUITE AND THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
SEE JUST THE START OF DEVELOPMENT NORTHWEST IN THE AREA. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOKS RIP FOR SCATTERED STORMS...AND THE
MORNING SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK FOR A MARGINAL RISK LOOKS OK. PARAMETERS
DO NOT LOOK TOO SCARY EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER SUPPORT WHICH COULD
ENCOURAGE A FEW HAILERS/DAMAGING GUSTS. IN ANY EVENT THE TIMING AND
COORDINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING LOOKS GOOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MODESTLY MILD...AS OPPOSED TO THE COOLER READINGS WE WERE GOING FOR
A DAY OR TWO AGO...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS DRY AS A CANADIAN WAVE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND
HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE TOLERABLE WITH A TOUCH OF DRYING BEHIND
THURSDAY SYSTEM. A WEEKEND WAVE SHOULD AGAIN PEAK THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BY NEXT TUESDAY IT LOOKS RAIN FREE
AGAIN...THIS TIME PROBABLY ON A LONGER BASIS AS THE MODELS SHOW THE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA IN EARNEST...SOMETHING MODELS A DAY OR
TWO AGO WERE NOT DOING. EVIDENTLY THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE HIGH
BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM HELPS KEEP A SOMEWHAT COOLING EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA AND PREVENT SIZZLING SUMMER HEAT...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THIS COULD DEVELOP RIGHT AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FEW REMAINING DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DWINDLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD LEAVE QUIET AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  MINIMAL THREAT FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT KSUX
AREA AFTER 05/18Z...BUT HAVE LEFT CLEAR OF THE TAF AS IS A FAIRLY
LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN


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