Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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795
FXUS63 KGRR 282355
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
755 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

A SLOWING WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN
HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BUILD SOUTH JUST ENOUGH TO CLEAR THE SKIES
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THAT WILL NOT LAST AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO AREA SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

LITTLE QUESTION ITS BEEN A CHILLY LATE APRIL DAY... AND THERE IS
LITTLE QUESTION THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
RAIN FROM INITIAL PUSH OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD COME TO AN END
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THAT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. THAT SHOULD ALL MOVE OUT BY NOONISH.

THE REAL QUESTION IS CAN WE GET SOME CLEARING BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM
MOVING OUT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN? IT DOES LOOK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH RIDGING BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM MOVING OUT AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING IN. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A CHILLY NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL FROST POSSIBLE.

FINALLY THE NEXT ISSUE IS JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN GETS WITH
THE NEXT SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH NEARLY ALL OF IT`S
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE ECMWF AND NAM AND SREF IN THAT IT KEEPS
THE RAIN SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED TO THE LAST 2
SYSTEMS... AND HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN GOT GIVEN BOTH OF THEM HAD
TO DEAL WITH THE CANADIAN BLOCK TOO... I BELIEVE THE RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE
LAYERED CLOUDS COMING IN WITH THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

WE WILL SEE A THREAT OF RAIN REMAIN ON SUN/SUN NIGHT...HOWEVER IT
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY FOR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. THE MAIN
PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY SUN. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WAITING THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED INVERTED SFC TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH.

WE SHOULD GENERALLY SEE DRY WEATHER FOR MON AND TUE...HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE A CHC OF A SHOWER TUE AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT BUILD IN FOR MON AND TUE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING A CHC OF A POP UP SHOWER ON TUE WITH SOME DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...AND SOMEWHAT OF A TROUGH COMING THROUGH PER THE GFS.

THE BETTER CHC OF RAIN WILL COME BEGINNING LATE TUE AND CONTINUE
INTO WED. THIS OCCURS AS A LARGER AMPLITUDE RIDGE TAKES SHAPE WELL
WEST OF THE AREA...AND A NNW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY STOUT SHORT WAVE TO DROP THROUGH AND BRING A
DECENT CHC OF RAIN. IN FACT ADDITIONAL WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
THE AREA WHILE THE NNW FLOW REMAINS...AT LEAST INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SOME IFR IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS WELL WITH
CEILINGS DROPPING TO AROUND 800 FEET NEAR AZO.

WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST AOB 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE PERSISTANT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY FROM 5 TO
15 MPH WILL RESULT IN NO NEED FOR ANY MARINE HEADLINES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
WILL ACT TO KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A
SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...WDM



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