Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 290824
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
324 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
IS PROGGED TO SWEEP SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
NAM WHILE THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE. THE LATEST RAP13
WOULD SUPPORT THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE ONGOING THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. WITH ONGOING RIVER FLOODING AND SATURATED SOILS...NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE FLOOD WATCH WITH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL BUT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING.


SAT-SUN...POST-FRONTAL DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THE WEEKEND WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 8-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS BRINGING RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS TO THE AREA. THIS
WILL SUPPORT RISING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY WED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE VALUES WITH READINGS IN THE LOW-MID 80S
WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE 60S.

BY LATE WED INTO EARLY THU...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE ROCKIES BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A LINE OF STORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION
OF THE STATE...THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MODEL GUIDANCE...WHILE NOT DOING OVERLY WELL WITH CURRENT-ONGOING
CONVECTION INDICATES THAT SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS IS LOW AT BEST.

BILLINGS WRIGHT


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  58  72  53 /  50  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      80  57  72  50 /  50  30  10   0
NEWTON          78  55  71  50 /  50  50  10   0
ELDORADO        80  59  71  53 /  60  60  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  59  74  53 /  60  60  10   0
RUSSELL         78  53  71  48 /  30  30  10   0
GREAT BEND      78  53  71  50 /  30  30  10   0
SALINA          78  56  71  50 /  50  40  10   0
MCPHERSON       79  55  71  50 /  50  30  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     80  62  73  55 /  70  70  10   0
CHANUTE         78  61  73  55 /  70  70  10   0
IOLA            77  61  72  55 /  70  70  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    80  61  75  55 /  70  70  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.

&&

$$


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