Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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834
FXUS63 KICT 310630
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
130 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2016

The main forecast challenges in the short term are convection and
building heat across the area.  Ongoing convection over the forecast
area early this morning the result of low level moisture transport.
This convection should continue to develop and spread in a northwest
to southeast fashion across the forecast area as the low level jet
veers.  The threat of large hail and heavy rainfall will continue
through about 14z.

The upper level ridge begins to build in earnest today.  Winds
increase from the south and will be stronger than Friday.  Right
now, the big question is whether or not we will mix out.  If we do,
dewpoints during peak heating will drop, with increasing wind and
temperatures.  This could affect afternoon heat indices.  We are
thinking that will happen along and west of I-135.  Thus, expect the
warmest temperatures and highest winds in that location, with heat
indices across central and eastern Kansas in the 100-105 degree
range.

Low level moisture transport will again be a factor for Saturday
night`s forecast.  NWP models all have the nose of it, where
convection typically forms, further north than tonight.  Thus, think
precipitation chances are less Saturday night than tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2016

The main concern for the remainder of the forecast period is
temperatures.  The upper level ridge builds into the region.  This
will increase capping for convection as well as the temperatures.
Each day should reach near 100 with some mixing out in the
afternoon. This will allow the dewpoint and subsequent humidities
to decrease during peak heating. This SHOULD, keep heat indices in
the 100-105 degree range.

Given the amount of capping, doubt much convection will break the
cap.  If it does, there is a high likelihood that the initial storms
will produce large and torrential rainfall.

Looking down the road, expect the heat to remain with us into
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

The main aviation hazard: thunderstorm potential overnight into
early Sunday morning.

Strengthening moisture transport/isentropic lift will occur
overnight in response to a 40-45 knot southerly low-level jet.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop from
northwest into north central kansas, possibly forming into a
mesoscale convective complex during the early morning hours across
northeast Kansas, as the low-level jet veers to southwesterly.
Will include a VCTS mention at most terminals overnight, with a
TEMPO TSRA group at SLN for now and update/amend as needed.
Expecting lesser storm coverage across the south.

Otherwise, light southeasterly winds overnight are expected to
become more southerly and gusty on Sunday as a lee trough develops
over the high plains.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  96  76  99 /  40  10  10  10
Hutchinson      71  96  74 100 /  40  10  10  10
Newton          71  95  75  99 /  50  20  10  10
ElDorado        71  94  74  97 /  50  20  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   73  96  75  99 /  30  10  10  10
Russell         70  98  73 100 /  40  10  10  10
Great Bend      70  98  74 101 /  30  10  10  10
Salina          71  95  75  99 /  60  20  10  10
McPherson       71  95  74  99 /  50  20  10  10
Coffeyville     72  92  74  96 /  30  30  10  10
Chanute         71  91  74  96 /  40  30  10  10
Iola            70  91  73  95 /  50  40  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    72  91  74  96 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRC
LONG TERM...KRC
AVIATION...JMC



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