Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 211200
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
600 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Today-tonight:
After a few hours of relatively quiet weather this morning, return
flow will spread moisture back north this afternoon. Precipitation
is expected to break out mid afternoon near OK border and spread
north during the evening. Rapid expansion/development is
anticipated by mid evening and will continue during the night as
favorable upper jet orientation increases flow across baroclinic
zone. Precipitation type looks to start as snow with column
continuing to cool this morning. With warming aloft this evening,
a fairly broad band of mixed wintry precipitation will spread
north and looks probable for a good portion of the night. A
transition to freezing rain towards daybreak areawide is expected
as the warm nose develops. An inch or possibly 2 of snow is
possible west of i-35, with a tenth to a quarter inch of ice
possible over most of the area.

Thursday:
This period was the most problematic. Most of the good warm air
advection/moisture advection has ended by 1200 UTC however all
models suggest a weak ripple in the upper flow will traverse the
area midday along with favorable upper jet. GFS forecast sounding
along the I-70 corridor at midday would be supportive of large
flakes/heavy snow due to good lapse rates/lift in elevated snow
growth zone and a deep column of moist supercooled air. With a
narrow band of lift moving through, 2+ inches of accumulation
would be reasonable. NAM however is much quicker with the mid
level dry air and would only suggest freezing drizzle or light
freezing rain. All models were surprisingly stingy on QPF - a bit
uncharacteristic for the upslope flow regime. Later shifts will
need to monitor this area/time frame closely as winter weather
advisory may need to be extended into the Thursday afternoon
along/north of I-70 if GFS is on the right track.

Friday:
Favorable upper jet setup once again, with 700MB moisture and warm
air advection during the day but with drier air spreading in
Friday night. However better 850MB moisture/warm air advection
waits until after 0000 UTC to develop, limiting precipitation
chances during the day and ramping up chances Friday night just
ahead of the approaching stronger shortwave.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Forecast relatively unchanged from initialization grids. More
significant shortwave moves through on Saturday, with increasing
chances of precipitation. Precipitation type of course is
problematic, especially given likely timing/track issues with
ejecting shortwave in southwest flow aloft. Forecast appears to be
dry after this wave goes with a warming trend. Of note, ECMWF
data has not been available for past two cycles. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

At issuance, the only areas not VFR were in SE KS where BKN 1,500
to 2,000 decks have been reported since ~10Z with BKN Altocu
10,000-12,000ft reported at the remaining terminals. However! The
situation will deteriorate QUICKLY ~22/00Z as cigs lower quickly
to "low-end" MVFR then to IFR ~22/03Z with -SN spreading NE across
most of KS. The -SN should quickly transition to -FZRAPL across SC
& SE KS with PLSN likely at KHUT & KSLN with MVFR vsbys prevalent
from early evening onward.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

There are no indications of serious fire weather threats through
the over the next seven days, with multiple chances for
precipitation across the area. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    30  26  36  29 /  30  90  40  10
Hutchinson      29  24  34  26 /  20 100  30  10
Newton          29  24  35  28 /  20  90  30  10
ElDorado        29  25  36  30 /  20 100  40  20
Winfield-KWLD   31  27  38  31 /  50  80  40  20
Russell         28  20  32  23 /  20  60  30  10
Great Bend      27  20  33  24 /  30  60  20  10
Salina          29  24  34  26 /  10 100  40  10
McPherson       28  24  34  26 /  20 100  30  10
Coffeyville     34  30  43  34 /  20  70  60  50
Chanute         33  28  40  32 /  10  80  50  50
Iola            32  27  39  32 /  10  90  40  50
Parsons-KPPF    34  30  42  34 /  20  70  50  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST
Thursday for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...EPS
FIRE WEATHER...PJH



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