Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 030426
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1126 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. AT
THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EARLY MORNING STORMS KICKED OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT NOW STRETCHES FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO NEAR THE
OK PANHANDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG
THE OUTFLOW SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA TO SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE THIS
EVENING WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONSISTENT IN QUICKLY RAMPING UP
850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AFTER 00Z. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY 03Z AND QUICKLY LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHEAR ABOVE 1KM WILL BE IN
THE 30-35KT RANGE WITH BETWEEN 2,000-3,000J/KG OF CAPE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT WITH HAIL
BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING OFF INTO
EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO BY 12Z WED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH A PIECE OF THIS FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY THU.

THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN INCREASED HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SOME RETURN FLOW OVER THE PLAINS FOR
WED...WHICH WILL BRING WARMING TEMPS. A STRONG COLD FRONT LOOKS
BEGIN ITS JOURNEY SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THU AND BY 00Z FRI
WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST-CENTRAL KS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THESE PERIODS WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES.

BY FRI AFTERNOON THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN MO
TO NEAR THE OK PANHANDLE. CANADIAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPILL SOUTH
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET ON FRI FOR MOST OF CENTRAL KS WITH 80S OVER SOUTHERN
KS. IN ADDITION...FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT FOR FRI THROUGH SAT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MON WITH HIGHS SUN ONLY IN
THE 70S.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. IN THE NEAR TERM...SLN...HUT...AND CNU
TERMINALS COULD HAVE STORMS IN THE VICINITY. SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT COULD YIELD AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY WED AM.
OTHERWISE...LEE TROUGH WILL STEEPEN DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  95  74  95 /  40  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      70  95  74  95 /  40  10  10  10
NEWTON          70  94  74  95 /  50  20  10  10
ELDORADO        70  94  74  95 /  40  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  95  74  95 /  40  10  10  10
RUSSELL         68  98  73  92 /  30  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      68  97  74  93 /  30  10  10  10
SALINA          69  95  75  95 /  50  20  10  20
MCPHERSON       69  95  75  95 /  40  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     71  93  75  95 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         70  92  74  94 /  50  20  10  10
IOLA            70  92  74  94 /  50  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    71  92  75  94 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.