Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 291217
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
717 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Forecast highlights: Rain/storms today, and again this weekend
into early next week.

Latest MRMS precipitation data suggests widespread rain amounts
of 1-2 inches, with pockets of 2-3 inches have fallen since
yesterday afternoon/evening in a wide north-south strip from
central and south-central Kansas east through the Flint Hills of
east-central and southeast Kansas. This will likely produce
healthy rises on several rivers/streams/creeks this morning, with
most probably remaining just below minor flood stage levels.
However, a handful of points could exceed minor flood stage,
especially if another widespread, prolonged area of moderate to
heavy rain moves north across the area this morning (which appears
possibly given activity still across Oklahoma). Additionally, a
handful of areal flood warnings for minor low-land flooding will
remain possible.

Once Oklahoma precipitation moves north across the region early
this morning, thinking widespread moderate to heavy rain should
gradually decrease in coverage, as a mid-level dry slot spreads
north over the region. However, portions of central and north-
central Kansas will likely see widespread precipitation shield
hang around longer due to mid-level deformation zone setting up
shop western through northern KS.

Attention then turns to strong/severe storm potential from midday
through early this evening, generally east of the Kansas Turnpike
corridor, as the warm sector retrogrades northwest some in
response substantial upper energy approaching from the southwest.
If airmass is able to recover from morning convection, strong deep
layer shear in concert with steepening lapse rates/cooling aloft
and modest instability would support large hail and perhaps
locally 60 mph winds with a handful of storms. Tornado threat
should remain fairly low given veer-back deep layer shear
orientation, but cannot completely be ruled out given the strong
wind fields associated with this system.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Models are finally coming into better agreement with the next
system, with consensus supporting more rain/isolated storms this
weekend through Monday. Could see pockets of locally heavy
rainfall, although this next storm doesn`t look as impressive as
the current one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Main Hazards: IFR conditions area-wide and thunderstorm potential.

Another round of strong moisture transport/upper level divergent
flow will move northward across eastern Kansas this morning, with
widespread showers and isolated-scattered thunderstorms. A
surface low will develop northeast into the southern Flint Hills
by 18-19Z with a warm front extending eastward into central
Missouri. This would allow several hours of warm sector over the
CNU and possibly ICT terminals. Would anticipate this to result in
widespread IFR and northeasterly winds gusting to 25-30 kt continuing
northwest of the low in Central KS with showers/embedded thunder.
IFR stratus may lift to MVFR at least on transient basis this
afternoon at CNU and ICT. In addition, isolated to scattered strong
to severe storms could affect southeast KS and the Flint Hills
this afternoon, near and to the east/southeast of the surface low.
Expecting scattered showers tonight as the upper low tracks
through, with gusty north- northeasterly winds and widespread IFR
for most of eastern Kansas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Wet and cool weather along with things starting to green up should
keep fire danger levels fairly low the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    57  42  51  39 /  90  50  50  10
Hutchinson      48  40  51  37 /  90  60  50   0
Newton          54  42  49  38 /  90  60  50  10
ElDorado        61  43  51  39 /  90  60  50  10
Winfield-KWLD   64  44  52  39 /  80  50  40  10
Russell         46  39  51  36 / 100  70  20   0
Great Bend      46  39  53  35 /  90  70  30   0
Salina          48  40  50  38 / 100  70  50   0
McPherson       48  40  50  37 /  90  70  50   0
Coffeyville     69  48  54  41 /  90  50  50  20
Chanute         69  48  53  41 /  90  60  60  20
Iola            67  49  54  41 /  90  60  60  20
Parsons-KPPF    68  48  54  41 /  90  50  60  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...JMC
FIRE WEATHER...ADK



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