Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 260721
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
321 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...A trough axis is moving across
the region early this morning with broad upper divergence helping
to produce a band of showers. This area will be across southwest
Virginia/northeast Tennessee around 12Z. Behind this axis, the
upper trough along with marginal instability will produce
scattered showers and afternoon thunder. Since upper forcing is
lifting northeast away from the area this afternoon and
instability is marginal, only expect isolated strong storms
possible.

Model soundings do show a boundary layer jet of 25-35kts remaining
today with some mid-level dry air, so strong gusty winds are
possible.

For tonight, enough instability remains, so will continue with a
chance of showers, but most locations will remain dry. Patchy fog
is possible, especially Plateau and southwest North Carolina.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...Will remain in an unsettle
weather pattern through much the extended as the first of two
weather systems pushes into the Southern Appalachian Region for
Monday and Tuesday. This system does have sufficient low level
moisture and weak lift and expect the atmosphere to become weakly
unstable for scattered convection to develop.  Overall...do not
expect this to be a significant event but can not rule out a stray
strong storm.  A few showers may linger across the area Tuesday
night as the system pulls out of the area.  By Wednesday...we will
basically be between systems for a dry for mid week.  Models
continue to show differences by the end of the period but do expect
to see another system move in around the Thursday/Friday time frame
providing our next round of convection with a few lingering
showers into Saturday as the system exits the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             74  58  76  58 /  40  40  30  60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  72  56  74  57 /  60  50  40  60
Oak Ridge, TN                       72  56  74  57 /  70  50  40  60
Tri Cities Airport, TN              69  51  72  54 /  70  50  50  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$





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