Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 300656
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
256 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WEAK COLD FRONT STILL JUST OFF TO
OUR NW BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SO WHILE
NOT QUITE AS HOT AND STICKY AS YESTERDAY STILL PLAN ON APPARENT
TEMPS BEING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST AREAS.

PRECIP CHANCES LOOK MUCH LOWER FOR TODAY COMPARED TO WHAT MODELS
WERE SHOWING SEVERAL DAYS AGO. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE THUS LEADING TO DECREASED PRECIP CHANCES. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES DROP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
TONIGHT SHOULD BE VERY PLEASANT AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 60S AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS STILL ADVERTISING THE
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH SURFACE RIDGING AT LEAST
THROUGH MONDAY. IN FACT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY SEEMS TO BE MORE WESTERLY THAN SOUTHERLY...WHICH SUPPORTS
THE SUPERBLEND MOS POPS ACTUALLY ABOUT 10 TO 15 PERCENT LOWER NOW
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...I NUDGED POPS DOWN AND KEPT AS
MUCH CONTINUITY AS POSSIBLE FROM OUR 29/12Z FORECAST GRIDS. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
NOW...AS I SEE NO REASON TO GO NEAR CLIMO POPS...UNLESS THE WEAK E-W
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES SAG SOUTH INTO SW VA AND NRN PLATEAU COUNTIES.

FOR TEMPS...30/00Z MOS MAX TEMPS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE DRIER
AIRMASS. TWEAKED THE MAXES UP A BIT IN LINE WITH THE NEW GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...THE SUPERBLEND MAXES/MINS LOOKED GOOD WITH THE USUAL
ADJUSTMENT TO GIVE MORE OF A RANGE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EACH
DAY/NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             93  69  92  67 /  30  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  90  65  88  65 /  30  10  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       90  65  89  64 /  30   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  62  86  59 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR/TG


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