Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 300724
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
324 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday night)...
Confidence in the models is low through the short term period as
precip chances and QPF amounts have not panned out as they had
projected. Thus the short term forecast will undercut their PoPs,
and generally favor the drier SREF solution to the NAM and GFS.

Today, a line of showers near the TN/KY border is expected to
continue to weaken as it tracks east, with little left of it by
the time it reaches our area. Lingering boundaries with it may
help focus storm development this afternoon, so will have PoPs
that favor northern areas today. With little forcing aloft, any
storms should be diurnally driven. Not buying into the NAM`s high
QPF amounts tonight but will have slight chance PoPs late tonight,
rising to chance PoPs Wednesday when we will have a broad trough
axis and a weak surface trough/front crossing the region. Thursday
looks dry as the surface boundary settles to our south and the
850-700 mb flow turns to NW behind the exiting trough.

Temperatures for the period will lean toward the warm side of MOS
guidance for high temps and on the cool side for lows, with the
expectation that models are overdone on precip and cloud cover.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)...
Some forecast uncertainty noted in the models through the period.
The superblend raises probability of precipitation into the first
half of the weekend with some unstable air in place with some
short wave lift riding east across the Mid South. Stayed with high
chance pops for showers and thunderstorms through the second half
of the weekend as a cool frontal boundary shifts into the
Southern Appalachian Region. At the end of the long term on Monday
held onto a little lower chance pops due to uncertainty in the
timing of the departure of the Eastern United States long wave
trough and possible shorter wavelength features rotating through
the pressure trough`s base.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             85  62  85  60 /  20  20  40  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  82  59  82  58 /  30  20  40  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       83  59  83  56 /  30  20  40  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              80  57  81  56 /  30  10  40  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$
24/99



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