Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 250134
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
931 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS ON FRIDAY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP WET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...LOWERED SKY COVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH PLEASANT WEATHER
FRIDAY.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS MID DAY SATURDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR PCPN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MINOR TWEAKS
MADE TO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE ON
SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND ALONG THE WV SIDE OF THE OH
RIVER.

FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MOS CONSENSUS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LAST SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. GRADUALLY REDUCED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE
PCPN.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FUSED A BLEND OF
DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...KEPT WARMER TEMPS FOR A MUGGY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW TURN NORTHWEST BY MONDAY BRINGING COOLER PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE PUSHING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING...CLEARING LAST IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AS
WELL...ALLOWING FOG TO FORM. DENSE FOG SHOULD FORM FIRST AND BE MOST
WIDESPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...WITH FOG
CONFINED TO RIVER VALLEYS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WV.
AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF ON FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT A RISING CUMULUS
DECK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLEARING CLOUDS COULD VARY. TIMING OF
FOG FORMING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 07/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY









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