Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 291844
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
244 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STRONG A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATE TONIGHT. A DRY STRETCH WILL FOLLOW STARTING FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. BACKING UP TO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CURTAIL
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHILE MAINLY
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IN THE MORE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FACTORS...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT APPROACHING 100 DEGREES TO CONTINUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR CAUTION.

FOR THE FRONT...EXPECT IT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z...CKB-CRW
LINE BY 14Z AND THE MOUNTAINS BY 17Z. DESPITE THE LACK OF UPPER
SUPPORT...LOSS OF HEATING...AND WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IN THE VERY
JUICY AIRMASS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL GO WITH 30-40 POPS. MODELS INDICATE
MOST OF ANY CONVECTION WILL BE WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH
LITTLE ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. THUS...WILL TIME
CONVECTION MORE WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
BY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND EXITING EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND DO NOT REALLY EXPECT A WIDESPREAD STRATUS SHIELD
BEHIND THIS FRONT. NOTHING REALLY SHOWING UP AT THIS TIME BEHINDTHE
APPROACHING FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL KEEP MINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...QUITE MUGGY. FOR THURSDAY...TOOK A BLEND OF THE MODELS
WHICH BRINGS MAX TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL...BUT ALSO DRIER AIR.


$$

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING. THEN A TRANSITION BACK INTO A STRONG SURFACE RIDGING
PATTERN WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEPING
UPWARDS AGAIN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN LOW
CHANCES FOR POPS COME BACK INTO PLAY. LOWLAND FORECAST HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO 90 DEGREES...WITH THE MOUNTAINS THEIR USUAL
5-15 DEGREES OFF THE PACE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL RESULT THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH HUMIDITY AND DIURNAL HEATING. BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY BKW.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS. EXPECT COLD FRONT AT 10Z ALONG OHIO
RIVER...ON A CKB-CRW LINE BY 14Z...AND EXITING THE MOUNTAINS BY
18Z. GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING WITH THE NIGHT TIME AND THURSDAY
MORNING FRONT...AND WEAK DYNAMICS AT BEST...WILL GO WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND VCTS IN TAFS. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR/LOCAL
IFR FOG FROM THE SHOWERS 08Z TO 13Z. DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHIELD OUTSIDE OF SOME MOUNTAINS LOCATIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT SUCH AS EKN AND BKW THURSDAY MORNING.

FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SFC AND LIGHT NW
THURSDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAY VARY. FOG OCCURRENCE DEPENDS ON EXTENT
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND IF THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
LATER TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...JMV


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