Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 102023
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
323 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHLY
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR CEILINGS REACH
OHIO RIVER BY 07Z...MVFR CEILINGS WITH FLURRIES OVER REMAINING
LOW LANDS. SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WINDS CONTINUE RIDGETOPS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU SPREADING EAST TO A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 18Z...SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CEILINGS MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV


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