Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 171831
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE
ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SE-S OF CRW THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAKES CEILING FORECAST
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FORECAST FOR PLACES LIKE CRW AND BKW.
COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME MVFR IN FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS...IF THOSE THINNING LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DRY UP ON THURSDAY...MID
DECK CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT PSBL.  MAY BE SOME RADAR RETURNS
FROM THE MID DECK BY 18Z BUT DO NOT THINK ANY PCPN REACHES THE
GROUND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB







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