Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 282330
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
730 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will sag southward on Monday and Tuesday...with
a stronger front on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 730 PM Sunday...
MPD from WPC details the high moisture atmosphere and light flows
through the low and mid levels possibly creating high QPF
scenarios in ongoing convection north/west of the Ohio River for
the most part. Despite the weak waves in the ridge aloft...believe
that there is still a diurnal component to this activity. Bears
watching for sure...and increased POPs in this area over the next
2 to 4 hours...but will hold off on any flood watches at this
point.

Previous Discussion...
Will look for a bit more coverage of convection later thru the
remainder of the afternoon over the N WV mountains and along the
OH River and into SE OH especially...in association with a
weakness in the ridge where some deeper moisture resides. Elected
to let the heat advisory run its course as the mid deck is
breaking up.

After some lingering shra/tsra across SE OH this evening...will
look for patchy dense river valley fog to set up in the usual
locales.

The upper high looks to reposition itself further to the W on
Monday...putting the area in more of a NW flow regime aloft with a
weak cold front trying to cross in the afternoon. Isolated
shra/tsra can be expected...especially across the mountains.
Highs will be similar to today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Sunday...

Hot and humid weather to start the period with upper ridging in
control across the eastern U.S. Frontal boundary will sag south into
the Ohio Valley region on Tuesday...eventually crossing the region
Wednesday into Thursday...with isold to sct showers and
thunderstorms. Behind the front...cooler...and less humid air...as
high pressure builds into the region from the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 PM Sunday...

Much of the weekend to remain dry...and less humid with high
pressure in control. However this will change as we approach the
start of next week...as southwesterly flow increases out ahead of
approaching frontal boundary. With upper ridging in place...left the
forecast dry for start of next week...although a pop up shower or
storm cant be completely ruled out during daytime heating hours.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 730 PM Sunday...
Another challenging late summer aviation forecast with ongoing
convection over the Ohio Valley creating issues with cloud
coverage forecasts overnight along with the potential for valley
fog development.

First...the thunderstorms. Expect this to continue...but should
largely be confined to the Ohio River terminals this evening and
into tonight...but do not have no weather POPs across all areas
until after 04Z or so. Thus...the issue with the convective mid
and upper level cloud debris...which would inhibit fog formation.

Temperatures do not figure to drop below the max dewpoints of the
day...so this makes valley fog less likely of an occurrence.
However...the guidance is aggressive with LIFR valley fog
everywhere except BKW. As mentioned before...PKB and HTS are at
the mercy of the storms over the next few hours. If any terminal
receives rain...that would increase the chances of fog
development...especially if clearing occurs late.

In the end...will go with late IFR for places like CRW and EKN
tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: T-showers may impact TAF sites. Extent of
dense fog is in question overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    H    L    L    L    H    M    L

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...

Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through mid week.
Early morning IFR possible in areas of fog into mid week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>008-
     013>015-024>026.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SL/30
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26


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