Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 241004
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
602 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ON SATURDAY.  LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY AND CROSSES
MIDWEEK...THEN MUCH COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS SHOWING A MOISTURE STARVED WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTHWARD
TODAY. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED...JUST SOME CLOUDS.

WINDS PICK UP TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. DUE TO
THE WINDS...WILL GO ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AT MOST
LOCATIONS...AND WITH THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE IN THE PROTECTED
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. BASED ON THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS...WILL SLOW DOWN
ARRIVAL OF POPS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.  SO...ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY...
BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END.  HOWEVER...A SECOND WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.  MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT...AND THEY LIMIT THE LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS FAR
NORTH FOR SATURDAY.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STARTS WORKING NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT.  THE GFS INDICATES THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON
SUNDAY.

WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.  BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MODELS FOR
POSSIBLE INCLUSION ON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

BASED ON EXPECTED WEATHER AND LATEST MOS...HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  LATEST MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE TWEAKED OUR TEMPERATURES UP
A LITTLE TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

DID NOT MAKE ANY REAL CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  LATEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND HAVE ONCE AGAIN TWEAKED
OUR EXPECTED HIGHS UP.  BUT I STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE TO BETTER MATCH
UP WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO TAKE HOLD IN THE LONG TERM. BEGINNING
OF PERIOD WILL START OUT WARM...AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS SEVERAL WAVES
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AS
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH AND EAST...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS WILL START THE TRANSITION INTO THE COOLER...WET PERIOD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. MORALE
OF THE STORY...ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING...DESPITE SOME
VFR CLOUDS FROM A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT...PROVIDING SOME CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN
RAIN SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    THU 04/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ008-010-011-
     016>020-027>032.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY










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