Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 270535
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
135 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is crossing the area tonight though showers and
thunderstorms have largely moved east of the area. A large upper
level low drops into the area Wednesday and Wednesday night, and
then swirls about the area Thursday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...

No significant changes necessary. Forecast on track. However...am
a bit concerned that there will not be much fog formation tonight
as previously forecast as thinking a light puff of wind will
linger for much of the night. Any fog that does form will probably
be rather thin/patchy...and not long lived...and confined to
deeper river valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM Monday...

Some seasonable Fall weather is finally on tap for the region.
A Broad upper low/trough will dig south across the
region and remain nearly stationary overhead. We will be mostly
clear Tuesday night and will have a cool start to the day on
Wednesday...as lows drop into the 40s just about everywhere.

The cool weather will remain through the end of the week as H500
anomaly of 2 to 3 standard deviations below normal expected with upper
low. As the upper low pushes in we can also expect an increase in
shower activity with cooling temps aloft and continued height
falls on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 320 PM Monday...

Operational and ensemble guidance is in pretty good agreement with
large upper level low remaining overhead well into the weekend.
With the cool temperatures aloft...any daytime heating we receive
will quickly yield showers and possible isolated thunderstorms.
The good news is that this should bring some much needed rainfall
to the region and amounts will remain light enough so we are not
expecting any hydro issues. The upper low meanders northward
Sunday into Monday with ridging moving in behind it. This will
bring warm air back into the region with upper 70s to near 80
degrees for the start of the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...

Cold front and associated showers to the east of the WV
mountains...with gradual clearing to VFR taking place area wide.
Could be some patchy mvfr/ifr fog late...generally after 09-10Z in
deeper river valleys...possibly affecting sites such as KCRW and
KEKN...but thinking most of the area will remain VFR overnight.
Any for that is able to form should burn off by 13Z.

Remainder of the TAF period should see VFR conditions...with
West-southwesterly winds. Some gusts in the teens are possible
during peak heating hours...dying off around sunset.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development and extent of any fog overnight
in question.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             TUE 09/27/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
Morning valley fog possible through Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MPK
NEAR TERM...SL/JW
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...SL


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