Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 291428
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1025M EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR FOR TODAY. WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS INCREASE SATURDAY.
MORE INSTABILITY SUNDAY WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TRYING TO SINK SE INTO MID OHIO VALLEY.
850 TEMP AT ILN WENT FROM 12C AT 00Z TO 5C AT 12Z. PBZ WENT FROM 10C
AT 00Z TO 7C AT 12Z.  AS EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DID SINK SOUTH OVERNIGHT... WILL BE THE SLOWEST TO
LIFT IN OHIO...IN THE COOLER AIR.

IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST 850 MB FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...FIGURING THE
MOST STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  SO CLOUD
FORECAST DIFFICULT IN THE TRANSITION ZONE AROUND CRW TODAY.

BASED ON 850 TEMPS...LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY A BIT.

BEFORE WE STARTING LOOKING OUT OUR SW WINDOW...STILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE NORTH BRANCH DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE FROM MICHIGAN.  A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY FORM OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS OF WV INTO THIS EVENING.

THINKING THE MID DECK MOISTURE FROM THE SW SYSTEM WILL INCREASE IN
THE HTS TRI STATE THIS EVENING...THEN LIFT INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES
06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY.  IF SKY CLEAR ENOUGH THIS EVENING...WILL
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG INSERTION TONIGHT IN THE WETTER NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ALSO...BASED ON CLOUDS AND INCREASING SHOWERS...LOWER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE A BIT FOR SATURDAY.  THINKING CHANCES OF T RELATIVELY
LOW ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING...AS PWATS APPROACH 1.5 INCHES...ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. LOW MBE VECTOR LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND
SKINNY CAPE VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLY TRAINING CELLS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT...AND DUE TO HEAVY RAIN RECEIVED THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS IN SOME AREAS...WE CAN EXPECT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE TO BE
FAIRLY LOW AND ANY HEAVY RAIN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME COULD CAUSE
ISSUES. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES OUR CWA ON SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THR REGION. STILL EXPECTING A JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE...AND ALSO SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS...SOME
STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE MAIN
CONCERN THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY...BUT MODELS
BRING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH...SO HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING.
THE 00Z ECMWF THEN SHOWS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BULGING IT BACK
NORTH TUESDAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE 12Z ECMWF IS EVEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE SURGING THE FRONT BACK NORTH WITH THIS WAVE...AND WOULD
SPELL PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER GFS KEEPS THE ENTIRE
THING FARTHER SOUTH. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
UNTIL THIS BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED. OTHERWISE REMAINED CLOSE TO
WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY IFR/LIFR FOG CURRENTLY IN HTS...AND PKB WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z. SOME MVFR CEILINGS COULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN SLOPES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: END OF FOG COULD VARY THIS MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ



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