Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 282345
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  TURNING HOT AND MORE
HUMID SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.  MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT
FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF CROSSING SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...

HIT THE FOG A BIT HARDER TONIGHT WITH THE LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS
NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
HIGH PRESSURE SAILING BY TO THE N OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...MOVES AWAY LATER TONIGHT AND FRI...REACHING THE NE COAST
FRI AFTERNOON...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS ON FRI. ALL OF THIS SPELLS A MAINLY DRY FCST...WITH A
WARMER AFTERNOON ON FRI.

AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY TO FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT SETTING UP OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY MAY HINDER DENSE FOG ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  ANY
FOG WILL BURN OFF FIRST THING FRI MORNING...WITH NOT NEARLY AS MUCH
MORNING STRATUS/CU AS THIS MORNING.

THAT WARM FRONT...THE UPPER RIDGE GIVING WAY TO SW FLOW...AND THE
HEATING OF THE DAY MAY LEAD TO LATE DAY CONVECTION OVER SRN WV.
ALSO MAINTAINED A BROKEN SKY FCST SE MOUNTAINS ON DEVELOPING SE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV...SLIGHTLY GREATER N-S DIFFERENCE
ON LOWS TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD FCST...AND A LITTLE LOWER ON HIGHS
NE WV FRI...AS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVE NEWD.  NOT
MUCH CHANGE OVERALL FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VARIOUS NWP IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT
NE-WARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
00Z SUN AND ITS ASSOC COLD FRONT STILL WELL WEST OF THE AREA. THIS
DEVELOPING SFC LOW STILL PROGGED TO PULL THE PREVIOUSLY-STALLED
FRONT...LOCATED INITIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AT 00Z
SAT...NORTHWARD AND LOCATED NORTH OF OUR AREA BY 12Z SAT. STILL HAVE
A BAND/AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS TRANSLATING SW TO
NE ROUGHLY 06Z SAT - 12Z SAT WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE
POPS EXITING THE NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND 15Z SAT. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES
BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STILL WELL
WEST BUT LATEST NAM RUN HINTING AT A PREFRONTAL BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST OVER IN/OH WHICH MAY CREEP
INTO THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY AS THEY SIMULTANEOUSLY WEAKEN.
CONTINUED TO NUDGE MAX TEMPS UPWARDS A TICK. IN FACT...SHOULD THE
LATEST GFS/EURO RUNS VERIFY...MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE SOLIDLY
INTO THE LOW AND PERHAPS EVEN MID 90S. DIDN/T GO QUITE THAT WARM
HOWEVER WITH THE NAM DEPICTING 925MB TEMPS OF ABOUT 25C...BUT DO
SUSPECT MORE LOCATIONS WILL MEET OR SURPASS THE 90F MARK THAN
WON/T...FOR THE LOWLANDS OF COURSE.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AGREED WITH PREV FCSTER IN BRINGING IN
THE HIGHER CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS QUICKER...BY LATE SAT NIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY EARLY SUN MORNING WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ARRIVING AND
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A VORT MAX PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUN. INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
MOVE E/NE WHILE THE AREA SAGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY SUN. STOPPED
SHORT OF CAT POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME TIMING DIFFS STILL IN
PLAY...BUT PRECIP IS A GOOD BET FOR ALL AT SOME POINT ON SUNDAY. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS TO BE AN ISSUE WITH HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS AND
MINIMAL DCAPE/THETA-E LAPSE RATE VALS...BUT WITH 0-6K SHEAR AROUND
25-30KTS SOME STORMS CERTAINLY MAY BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE.
CONTINUED TREND OF GOING ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS
WITH DENSE OVERCAST IN PLACE AND PERIODIC PRECIP...WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOW 80S EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW...ALONG WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL RESULT IN
ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS
FEATURE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
JUST A FEW HI CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG
SETTING IN. HAVE MOST TERMINALS IN IFR OR WORSE FOG EXCEPT
KHTS/KBKW WHERE MVFR VSBY WERE CODED UP FOR KHTS. FOG WILL BURN
OFF 13-14Z FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. A WARM FRONT
WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS KY AND SW VA DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN SW OF AREA. MID/HI CLOUDS
OTHERWISE WITH SOME FLAT CU THROWN INTO THE MIX.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 08/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...30







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