Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 311003
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
603 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY HUMID WEAK AHEAD...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AND LACK OF
ORGANIZED SURFACE FEATURES ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW AN H5 SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN VORTICITY CHARTS OVER
WESTERN NC...EASTERN KY AND SOUTHWEST VA MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST
TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING EXTENSIVE UPPER TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR IMAGES SHOW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS FROM EAST TO WEST. WENT
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT OVER THE OH VALLEY.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THERE. IT
IS STILL UNCERTAIN IF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL WEATHER.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH RAINFALL
ACTIVITY DECREASING AND EXITING THE EASTER MOUNTAINS.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH THE SUPER BLEND...GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S LOWLANDS RANGING TO THE MID 70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO IN THE MID 60S DUE TO MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND
CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A VERY SUMMERLIKE WEATHER PATTERN THIS
PERIOD WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA. EVEN WITH A
MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...THE UPPER RIDGE AND LACK OF ANY
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE AN ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IS PRESENT. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY
THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW AND NO FRONTS IN OUR VICINITY...THE LONG
TERM WILL CONTINUE THE SUMMER TIME PATTERN...DESPITE THE APPROACH
OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

WILL TYPE TO HAVE MOSTLY A DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM POSSIBILITY WITH
20/30 POPS MOST DAYS. OF COURSE...AS WE GET CLOSER...THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE A DAY...WHERE WE CAN ENHANCE OR DECREASE THOSE POPS.
A BETTER CHANCE OF SE FLOW SATURDAY...SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES COMPARED TO FURTHER WEST..FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

FIGURING A RELATIVELY DRY GROUND...WILL TRY TO HAVE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AOA GFS MOS GUIDANCE IN THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH FROM
NORTHEAST KY AND SOUTHWEST VA INTO WV TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGES AND
SFC OBS SHOW BKN TO OVC 12KFT CEILINGS ACROSS MOST SITES.
AREAS OF CLEARING COULD SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN WV...RAINFALL SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AT MOST SITES.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS EXIST ALONG THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT IF BREAKS
IN CLOUDS DEVELOP. ANY SHOWER COULD PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS IF
MOVES THROUGH A TAF SITE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               MON 08/31/15
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
SPOTTY IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS...MAINLY
IN WV AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...ARJ



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