Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 201335
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
935 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER AND MONDAY. COLD
FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE/DEWPT/RH GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE DEEMED NECESSARY.

DID GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AN SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. WINDS
RELATIVELY LIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST IN LOWER TEENS
DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS...AND DRY
ATMOSPHERE...FELT AN SPS WAS WARRANTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO
DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DRY 850 MB AIR TODAY
AND SOME SUNSHINE...WILL INCREASE THE DAYTIME WINDS SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR DRY AIR MIXING TO THE SURFACE. WILL ALSO LOWER LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SINCE DECENT RADIATION CONDITIONS
AND DEW POINTS REMAINING FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH BAND OF LIKELY POPS WITH MONDAY STAYING
DRY. APPEARS SOME PREFRONTAL ACTION TUESDAY MORNING WITH BAND OF
SHRA AND THUNDER WITH FRONT TO FOLLOW. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED
HEAVILY ON WARMER GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED
IN THE LOWLANDS. CONTINUED THAT TREND FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN
INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. SOME POST FRONTAL STRATUS
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP OVER THE LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHILLY NIGHT ON TAP. SOME PATCHY FROST FOR SHELTERED
LOCATIONS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. COOL DAY TO FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON STRATOCU ESPECIALLY N WV...WHICH
DISSIPATES LATE WITH PASSAGE OF THERMAL TROF AND SUBSEQUENT WAA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT PASSING TUESDAY EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MORE IN LINE TODAY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
COLD FRONT AND PCPN EXPECTED WITH IT. THE GFS SHOW SOME SFC CAPE UP
TO 600 J/KG. NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT AT LEAST ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDER
FRIDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. INCREASE POPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/SL
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY








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