Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 300821
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
421 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Firmly in warm sector today. Cold front Monday. Upper low with
unsettled weather to end the work week. Deepening low pressure
system for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 140 AM Sunday...

Fairly quiet weather expected through most of the period. We
will be in the warm sector throughout with summer-like
temperatures. Expecting highs around 90 across most of the
lowlands, with 70s and 80s at higher elevations.

With the summer like airmass...cannot rule out an isolated
shower or thunderstorm today into tonight, so maintained some
low end POPs. Most of us should remain dry however. Cold front
approaching from the west late in the period, with POPs
beginning to ramp up across SE OH during the pre-dawn Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 AM Sunday...

A cold front crosses the region Monday with showers/storms.
The front should move fairly quickly so water concerns are
minimal despite soil moisture content. A much cooler air mass
arrives Tuesday. Tuesday and Wednesday should be dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 AM Sunday...

A deep upper level trough will cause cyclogenesis over the mid-
Atlantic on Thursday which will bring a wet period for the end
of the week into the weekend as bands of precip rotate around
the developing low. This will wreak havoc with deterministic
temp/precip forecasts this far out, but kept PoPs fairly high
for Thu-Sat night.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 AM Sunday...

Some MVFR fog in place across SE OH into PKB area through
sunrise.

Warm southerly flow should persist through the TAF period with
mainly just some mid to high clouds passing by. Cannot rule out
an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but not enough coverage
expected to include in TAFs at this time.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/density of fog may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 04/30/17
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in showers and storms Monday into Monday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...MZ


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