Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 272200
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
300 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 300 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

Current surface analysis shows nearly stationary frontal boundary
across far southern MT to central SD. An area of low pressure is
located across southeast WY. Upper level analysis shows
southwesterly flow across the region, with strong jet from the
Great Basin region through the Northern Plains. Upper level trough
is moving into the Northern Rockies. Current KUDX radar is
showing isolated to scattered rain and snow showers from southwest
SD to portions of west central SD. Temps are mostly in the mid
30s to mid 40s. Winds are south-southwest to the south of the
boundary and north-northeast to the north.

Unsettled southwest flow aloft will continue into midweek, with
several weak disturbances bringing areas of snow through Tuesday
night. Models are in good agreement on this, with some minor
differences on location and timing. Isolated to scattered rain and
snow showers will continue into this evening across southwest into
central SD near entrance region of jet streak. The next shortwave
disturbance will move across the area overnight and Tuesday morning.
The focus for snowfall with this system will be across northern
portions of the CWA. Will keep highest pops from far northeast WY to
northwest SD. An inch or two of accumulation is possible in spots
later tonight into early Tuesday in these areas.

Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 20s and 30s as boundary
settles southwest over the Black Hills area. Snow showers are
possible along and near the boundary from far northeast WY to the
Black Hills area during the afternoon and evening as weak energy
intersects with the boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

Fast west-northwest flow aloft is expected during the latter part
of the week. Mostly dry weather is expected Wednesday and
Thursday with near average temperatures. Gusty winds expected
Wednesday afternoon and evening behind passing cold front,
especially across northwest SD. A ridge will begin to build over
the region Friday and then continue into the weekend. Temperatures
will be above average Friday through the weekend, with the
warmest temperatures over the weekend. Some model differences on
the timing of cold fronts later in the weekend and into early next
week. EC is coming into better agreement with GFS on keeping
Sunday mild, before a strong cold front and upper level
disturbance brings colder temps and chances for pcpn Sunday night
and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued At 300 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

Isolated to scattered snow showers and local MVFR/IFR conditions
can be expected across southwest to west central SD this afternoon
and evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected elsewhere
into this evening. Another disturbance will bring a good chance
for snow showers across northeast WY, the Black Hills, and
northwest SD late tonight into Tuesday morning. Areas of MVFR/IFR
conditions can be expected, with local LIFR conditions possible as
well.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26


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