Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 282133
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
333 PM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Monday Night)
Issued at 332 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over Saskatchewan,
with warm front extending southeast into the eastern Dakotas and a
cold front stretching southwestward into northern MT. A trough
also extends across western ND into eastern and southern WY. Upper
level analysis shows weak ridging over the plains ahead of upper
low over the Four Corners area. Skies are mainly sunny across the
area with temps in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Winds are light in most
areas, though a bit breezy at times over south central SD.

A relatively quiet weather pattern will continue into the first part
of the week. Skies will remain clear to partly cloudy into tonight.
A shower or thunderstorm is not out of the question across south
central SD late this afternoon as some cumulus builds over the area.
Cool front to the north will slowly slide into the area later
tonight and Monday, bringing slightly cooler temps, especially to
northern portions of the forecast area. Highs on Monday will range
from the mid 80s to lower 90s across the plains, warmest over far
southern SD, with upper 70s to mid 80s over the Black Hills. Upper
low to the southwest of the region will slide into the southern
Rockies and plains Monday, with cool front sliding slowly south into
southern SD in the afternoon. Weak energy aloft ahead of the low
could interact with the front to help produce isolated showers and
storms over the Black Hills and portions of southern SD during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Severe threat looks rather low,
but small hail and gusty winds would be possible with a stronger
storm. Any activity should taper off after sunset, with lows in the
mid 50s to mid 60s early Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Through Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

An upper level ridge will dominate the weather through
mid week, with the only appreciable chances for any thunderstorms
over the terrain of the Black Hills. As southwest flow aloft
develops for the end of the week, slightly better chances for
thunderstorms are expected. A better looking chance for storms may
develop for next Sunday into Labor Day given decent upper trough
moving through, but that is a long way out.

Temperatures through the long term will be very warm with dry
afternoon relative humidities, sometimes dropping into the teens
over northeast Wyoming. The dry air doesn`t look quite as pervasive
as previous guidance had shown.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday)
Issued At 332 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...McKemy



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