Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 060031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Jul 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 06-Jul 08 2015 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 06-Jul 08 2015

            Jul 06     Jul 07     Jul 08
00-03UT        3          2          2
03-06UT        4          2          1
06-09UT        3          2          1
09-12UT        3          1          1
12-15UT        3          1          1
15-18UT        2          1          1
18-21UT        2          1          2
21-00UT        2          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
Unsettled to active periods (Below G1-Minor) are expected through midday
on day one (06 Jul) as coronal hole high speed stream activity subsides.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 06-Jul 08 2015

              Jul 06  Jul 07  Jul 08
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 06-Jul 08 2015

              Jul 06        Jul 07        Jul 08
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: A slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
exists throughout the forecast period (06-08 Jul).



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