Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 301232
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2016 Sep 30 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 30-Oct 02 2016 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 30-Oct 02 2016

            Sep 30     Oct 01     Oct 02
00-03UT        4          5 (G1)     4
03-06UT        4          4          4
06-09UT        4          4          3
09-12UT        4          4          3
12-15UT        5 (G1)     3          3
15-18UT        4          4          3
18-21UT        5 (G1)     5 (G1)     3
21-00UT        6 (G2)     4          4

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at G1 (Minor) storm
levels, with an isolated period of G2 (Moderate) storming likely, on day
one (30 Sep) as CH HSS influence continues. Weakening CH HSS effects on
day two (01 Oct) are expected, with a few isolated periods of G1
storming possible. CH HSS influences are anticipated to weaken further
by day three (02 Oct), decreasing activity to below G1 storm levels.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 30-Oct 02 2016

              Sep 30  Oct 01  Oct 02
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 30-Oct 02 2016

              Sep 30        Oct 01        Oct 02
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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