Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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342
FXXX10 KWNP 071231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2016 Dec 07 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 07-Dec 09 2016 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 07-Dec 09 2016

            Dec 07     Dec 08     Dec 09
00-03UT        1          5 (G1)     5 (G1)
03-06UT        2          4          4
06-09UT        3          3          3
09-12UT        2          3          3
12-15UT        3          3          3
15-18UT        4          3          3
18-21UT        4          4          4
21-00UT        5 (G1)     4          4

Rationale: Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely
all three days due to CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 07-Dec 09 2016

              Dec 07  Dec 08  Dec 09
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 07-Dec 09 2016

              Dec 07        Dec 08        Dec 09
R1-R2            5%            5%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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