Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5
000
AXGM70 PGUM 090414
DGTGUM
PMZ181-240200-
MAJURO-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
130 PM CHST THU FEB 9 2017

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSEN IN THE NORTHERN AND FAR NORTHWESTERN
MARSHALL ISLANDS...

SYNOPSIS...
THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S LA NINA ADVISORY INDICATED A
LIKELY TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS SOMETIME THIS MONTH.
THOSE ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AT LEAST JUNE.
SEASONAL TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF MICRONESIA THE NEXT
COUPLE OF MONTHS. DRY WEATHER IS ENTRENCHED NORTH OF 8N EAST OF 170E
AND NORTH OF 10N EAST OF 160E AND WEST OF 170E. THE SOUTHERN
MARSHALL ISLANDS...THE FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA INCLUDING
KAPINGAMARANGI AND THE REMAINDER OF THE US-AFFILIATED MICRONESIAN
ISLANDS ARE GETTING TYPICAL DRY-SEASON...BUT GENERALLY ADEQUATE
RAINFALL.

THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR NOW
SHOWS THAT WOTJE AND UTIRIK OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS ARE IN
SHORT-TERM SEVERE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 2 OF 4) AND ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR WORSENING OR EXTREME CONDITIONS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

MARSHALL ISLANDS...

FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ISLANDS...
THE ATMOSPHERE NORTHWARD FROM THE MARSHALL ISLANDS TO WAKE ISLAND
CONTINUES TO BE VERY DRY...AND SEVERE DROUGHT IS ALREADY AFFECTING
WOTJE AND UTIRIK AND LIKELY OTHER NORTHERN AND THE WESTERN ATOLLS.
THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALLS WILL REMAIN DRY IN THE COMING WEEKS AND
ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N SUCH AS WOTJE...UTIRIK ...RONGELAP...
BIKINI AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS WILL SUFFER FROM DROUGHT CONDITIONS. MORE
PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO AFFECTING MALOELAP...LIKIEP AND
AILUK ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE SCIENTISTS NOW INDICATE
THE WEAK LA NINA AFFECTING MICRONESIA WILL TRANSITION TO ENSO-
NEUTRAL LATER THIS MONTH. MANY ISLANDS NORTH OF 10N ARE EXPERIENCING
DROUGHT AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE
COMING WEEKS.
WHILE WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED REPORTS FROM UTIRIK...SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE AREA HAS BEEN VERY DRY.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                  OCT    NOV    DEC    JAN   FEB      FEB
                                            (1-7)   NORMAL  % NORMAL

WOTJE            13.83   8.07   1.50   0.08  0.75    0.40      188
UTIRIK           18.47   9.46   1.99   0.63  NO REP  0.50        ?
MAJURO           15.28  17.36  11.77  17.65  4.18    2.10      199
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE  18.73  14.16  10.36   9.00  5.17    1.06      488

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
A DRY ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. EVAPORATION
CAUSED BY TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE OCEAN SHOULD HELP OFFSET
OR MODERATE THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT TRADE-WIND SHOWERS ARE BECOMING LESS
FREQUENT AND DRIER WEATHER IS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF 8N TO
10N. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR
WOTJE...UTIRIK... RONGELAP...BIKINI...ENEWETAK...AILUK...LIKIEP AND
MALOELAP ATOLLS WITH LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS AND LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 10 DAYS. WHILE KWAJALEIN AND MAJURO MAY ALSO SEE SOME EXTENDED
DRY PERIODS...BUT THEY HAVE HAD LARGE VOLUMES OF RAIN IN DECEMBER
AND JANUARY.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT INDICATES THAT UTIRIK AND ENEWETAK
HAVE OPERATING REVERSE OSMOSIS (RO) SYSTEMS AND THAT SYSTEMS ARE
BEING PREPARED FOR AILUK...WOTJE AND MEJIT. EVEN WITH RO
UNITS...LOCAL VEGETATION AND FOOD SOURCES WILL LIKELY SUFFER FROM
THE DROUGHT. LOCAL WELLS WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE SALTY. THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED GUIDANCE FOR WATER
CONSERVATION AND GOOD HYGIENE.

CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED SINCE BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP AND AFFORD AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER. FOR
EXAMPLE...WOTJE RECEIVED 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN ON 5 FEBRUARY.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE
THURSDAY FEBRUARY 23 2017 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY
TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER
COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

NWS WFO GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM
CURRENT CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT.

THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...
CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF MICRONESIA...EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY
OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AT
MAJURO...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES...AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE NOAA
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...

WFO TIYAN GUAM
3232 HUENEME RD
BARRIGADA GU 96913
PHONE: 671-472-0946
W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

GUARD

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.