Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
610 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...Winter Spring Flood Potential Outlook 8 for Eastern New York
and Western New England...

This is the eighth of a series of Hydrologic Outlooks issued
by the National Weather Service every two weeks...which refers to
the potential for flooding across eastern New York State...southern
Vermont...Berkshire County Massachusetts...and Litchfield County
Connecticut. The major river basins in this area are the
Hudson...the Mohawk...and the Housatonic.

This outlook is valid for the two-week period April 16 to 30.


...Overview...

The potential for snowmelt flooding for the spring of 2015 is
generally near normal with the exception the portion of southern
Vermont that drains to the Connecticut River which is above normal
due to above normal snowpack.


...Observed Snow Depths and Water Equivalents...

No hydrologically significant snow remains south of a line from Rome
New York to Pittsfield Massachusetts. North of that line...snow
totals in the Adirondacks measured between nil and 15
inches...containing zero to 6 inches of liquid equivalent.

The big winner in terms of snow amounts at this point in the season
continues to be southern Vermont and just into northern Berkshire
County Massachusetts where snow depths from 2 to 18 inches were
measured. Snow water equivalents ranged from 1 to 6 inches.

While snow depths have decreased in the Adirondacks...southern
Green Mountains...and far northern Berkshires...snow water
equivalents have not come down as much...especially in elevated
terrain...as snow pack is increasing in density or ripening. Many
valley locations have bare ground at this point.


...River Flows and Ice Conditions...

With the period of above freezing temperatures over the past few
weeks...runoff from snow melt had brought flows in area rivers back
to normal and in some cases above normal conditions. The warmup over
the past few weeks has also been very effective in melting out as
well as flushing out river ice. As a result...at this point limited
river ice remains in the northern portions of the outlook area...and
the threat of ice jam flooding appears to have passed for the
season.


...Soil Moisture Conditions and Water Supply...

With the recent snow melt across the outlook area...soil moisture
conditions are rebounding to slightly below to near normal states.
Snow melt runoff has also contributed to reservoirs filling across
the outlook area. New York City reservoirs are now collectively at
93 percent of capacity which is only about 5 percent below
normal...compared to the 18 percent below normal noted in the last
spring flood outlook two weeks ago. Hudson River Black River
Regulating District reservoirs have also rebounded to 8 feet below
up to near target elevations. With plenty of Adirondack snowpack yet
to melt...reservoirs will continue to fill.


...Temperature and Precipitation Outlook...

No hydrologic issues are anticipated through the upcoming weekend
and the next chance of a widespread soaking rainfall looks to be in
the Monday to Tuesday time frame. Another precipitation event
appears possible later in the week...though there is still much
uncertainty both in the amount of precipitation as well as whether
it will fall as rain or snow. Looking beyond 7 days...the official
National Weather Service 8-14 day outlook for April 23 through 29
calls for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.


...Summary...

After a weekend of milder temperatures...a cooler and more unsettled
pattern is expected for the next few weeks. With rivers running near
to above normal...any heavy rain events in the next two weeks will
be carefully monitored for flood potential. Interested parties are
advised to pay close attention to the Hazardous Weather Outlook and
any subsequent Watches or Warnings for the most up to date flood
potential information.


The ninth Winter Spring Flood Outlook is scheduled for Thursday...
April 30. Extended hydrologic information will be included
in the Hazardous Weather Outlook when necessary.

It is important to remember that heavy rainfall can produce flooding
at any time of year even in areas that have a below normal potential
for flooding.

Observed and forecast river information can be found on our web
page at www.weather.gov/albany.

$$




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