Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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027-021630-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1226 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK /7/...

THIS IS THE SEVENTH FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE 2016 WINTER/SPRING
SEASON. FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON VERMONT TO SUMMARIZE THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT AND BREAK UP OF RIVER ICE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

...OVERVIEW...

THE FLOOD OUTLOOK DUE TO SNOWMELT IS BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL FOR
FAR NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. WHILE THE EARLY SPRING SNOW PACK IS
MOSTLY DEPLETED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, RIVER FLOWS ARE STILL
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH NEAR NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE. THE ICE JAM
THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE SEASON.

...SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

SNOW COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT IS THIN TO NON-
EXISTENT. SNOW HAS MELTED ENTIRELY AT ELEVATIONS BELOW 1500 FEET,
WITH THIN COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN FAR NORTHEAST
VERMONT. SNOW DEPTHS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...AND IN FAR
NORTHEAST VERMONT IS BETWEEN 3 TO 8 INCHES. THE WATER CONTENT OF
THE REMAINING SNOW IS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH EXCEPT FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE BETWEEN 2 AND 3
INCHES. THESE VALUES REPRESENT LESS THAN 25% OF THE NORMAL VALUES
FOR EARLY APRIL.

...RIVER AND SOIL CONDITIONS...

RIVERS HAVE CLEARED OF ICE IN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK,
ENDING THE ICE JAM THREAT FOR THIS SEASON.

MUD SEASON CONTINUES FOR MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT
WITH SOILS NEAR NORMAL. THE WET SOIL COULD CONTRIBUTE TOWARDS
HIGHER RUNOFF BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO FROZEN GROUND EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME OF THE RAINFALL AND OR SNOWMELT COULD BE BE ABSORBED INTO THE
GROUND.

DUE TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SEVERAL WETTING RAIN
EVENTS, THE RIVER FLOWS ARE RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE
THE LACK OF SNOWMELT.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...

EXPECT A SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL PATTERN TO BEGIN IN APRIL
WITH BOTH THE 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER DEPICTING HIGH CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING A BLAST OF "WINTER-LIKE"
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT WARMING TOWARDS THE SECOND WEEK OF APRIL BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL.

THE OFFICIAL PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH THE
6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY TIME PERIOD.

...SUMMARY...

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL, BASED
PRIMARILY ON NEAR NORMAL RIVER FLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE. LITTLE
SNOW REMAINS TO CONTRIBUTE TO A FLOOD THREAT. RIVER ICE HAS
CLEARED FROM RIVERS AND THE ICE JAM THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THIS
SEASON.

THE PROBABILITY FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN FLOODING IS LOW BASED ON MELT
OF THE EXISTING SNOW COMBINED WITH THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK. THE
LAKE LEVEL REMAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE EARLY
APRIL TRENDING ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK
OF SNOW REMAINING TO MELT, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LAKE CHAMPLAIN IS
ALREADY NEAR THE HIGHEST LEVELS IT WILL REACH THIS SPRING WITH THE
RAINFALL ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE REGION.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL ON TOP OF SNOWMELT IS
THE DRIVING FACTOR IN SPRING FLOODING. EVEN WITH THIS YEAR`S LOW
SNOW PACK, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RESULT IN FLOODING, EVEN IN
AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO SNOW ON THE GROUND.

DUE TO THE LACK OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, THIS WILL SERVE
AS THE LAST SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE SEASON

ACCESS CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS ON OUR WEB SITE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV.

$$
RDEAL


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