Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FGUS74 KCRP 191754
ESFCRP
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1254 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range
probabilistic outlook for the Nueces River Basin in South Texas...


The Corpus Christi Texas National Weather Service office has
implemented the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for
the Nueces River Basin in South Texas. AHPS enables the
National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic
outlooks. This service is also available on the internet.


In the table below...The 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the
next 90 days. Example: The Nuecas River at Calallen has a
flood stage of 7 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Calallen
forecast point will rise above
6.8 feet
during the next 90 days.


        Chance Of Exceeding Stages At Specific Locations
                  Valid 10/18/2017 - 01/16/2018


LOCATION       FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------       ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
Aransas River
 Skidmore       13.0   0.9  1.0  1.1  1.3  1.5  4.8  9.5 13.0 16.6

Atascosa River
 Whitsett       20.0   2.0  2.0  2.0  2.0  5.3  9.8 12.2 17.2 20.2

Frio River
 Tilden         22.0   2.7  2.7  3.2  4.7  5.6  6.3  7.7 10.7 21.3

San Miguel Creek
 Tilden         21.0   2.9  2.9  2.9  2.9  3.6  5.3  6.4  8.0 11.5

LOCATION        FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------        ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
Nueces River
 Cotulla         15.0   5.0  5.0  5.0  5.9  7.4  8.9 11.8 12.6 19.3
 Tilden          14.0   8.0  8.0  8.0  8.0  8.0 10.7 11.7 16.2 20.0
 Three Rivers    25.0   5.0  5.0  5.0  5.9  9.2 12.0 15.9 23.3 31.7
 Mathis          25.0   5.8  5.8  5.8  5.8  7.9 11.1 13.0 20.0 27.2
 Bluntzer        18.0  16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 17.8 21.9 28.5
 Calallen         7.0   6.8  6.8  6.8  6.8  6.8  6.8  6.8  7.2  8.2


This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are
calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take
into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.
by providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers...The
level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can
be determined.


Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the
Internet at: www.srh.weather.gov/cgi-bin/ahps.cgi?crp.


Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third
Thursday of every month.


$$




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