Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FGUS73 KIWX 170314
ESFIWX

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
600 PM EST THU FEB 16 2017

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service 90 Day Probabilistic
Forecast...

This is the 90 day probabilistic forecast for locations along the
Kankakee River Basin in northern Indiana and for the Saint
Joseph River Basin in northern Indiana and southern Michigan.

In the table below the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise to or above the listed stage levels in
the next 90 days.

For example, the Kankakee River at Davis, Indiana has a flood stage
of 10 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 10 percent chance the
river will rise to or above 11.5 feet.

The St. Joseph River at South Bend, Indiana has a flood stage of
5.5 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 25 percent chance the
river will rise to or above 5.4 feet.


Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
...Valid February 19 2017 - May 20 2017...


Kankakee River Basin...
Location         FS(ft)   95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

Kankakee River
Davis IN            10    8.3  8.7  9.3 10.0 10.8 11.5 12.4

Yellow River
Plymouth IN         13    7.3  8.3  8.7 10.3 11.8 12.7 13.1
Knox IN             10    6.5  6.9  7.3  8.0  8.8  9.5  9.9


Saint Joseph River Michigan Basin...
Location         FS(ft)   95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

Saint Joseph River Michigan
Three Rivers MI      7    5.6  5.8  6.2  6.7  7.5  8.4  9.5
Mottville MI         8    5.2  5.2  5.7  6.1  6.8  7.7  8.8
Elkhart IN          24   21.1 21.3 21.6 22.2 23.2 24.5 25.8
South Bend IN       5.5   2.7  3.0  3.5  4.2  5.4  7.0  8.6
Niles MI            11    7.6  7.9  8.4  9.2 10.4 11.8 13.2

Elkhart River
Goshen IN            7     3.7  4.0  4.4  5.0  6.0 7.4  8.1
Cosperville IN       6     5.4  5.6  5.8  6.1  6.3  6.7 7.5



This long-range probabilistic outlook contains forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data including current conditions of the river,
soil moisture, snow melt and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of
temperature and precipitation. By providing the complete range of
probabilities, the level of risk associated with long range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are a
part of NOAA National Weather Services Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on AHPS at
www.weather.gov/iwx, under Rivers and Lakes.

...Snow Cover/Soil Conditions...

Snow cover was absent across the Kankakee and St. Joseph Michigan
river basins. Soil conditions remain thawed across the region as
well. With above normal temperatures in the near term, the ground
will remain thawed with no snow cover. This will allow for greater
evaporation and surface water infiltration. Short term crop moisture
indices were near normal to abnormally moist, with the wettest
regions across southwest Lower Michigan.

...Weather Outlook...

The Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day outlook indicates that
there is a 40 to 50 percent, or elevated, chance for above normal
precipitation and a 60 to 70 percent, or high, chance that
temperatures will be above normal values through the period. The CPC
experimental week 3 through 4 outlook indicates that there no
significant signal with respect to temperatures with equal chances
for above, below and near normal temperatures. There is a signal
favoring below normal normal precipitation for the region during
this timeframe. The CPC three month outlook for the period March
through May indicates elevated chances for above normal temperatures
and equal chance for above, below and near normal precipitation
across the region.

...River Conditions...

Area rivers were experiencing near to above average streamflow. Most
points in the Kankakee and St. Joseph Michigan river basins are
experiencing streamflow in the 50th to 80th percentile. All of the
area stream and waterways are open with no ice observed. The overall
potential for significant ice formation, that could lead to ice jams
and exacerbated flooding conditions, is near zero as temperatures
will warm considerably in the near term.

...Overall Flood Risk...

Typical minor flooding, especially in more flood prone areas,
remains possible and will be highly dependent upon future
precipitation events. Given all the factors such as initial moderate
to high streamflow conditions, lack of snow water content, and no
significant signal for extraordinary precipitation over the next
couple of weeks, the overall risk for flooding through the spring is
near normal at this time.

...Flood Terminology...

The term minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property
damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible.

The term moderate flooding is used to indicate the inundation of
secondary roads. Transfer to a higher elevation may be necessary to
save property.

The term major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundation and
property damage, usually characterized by the evacuation of people
and livestock and the closure of both primary and secondary roads.

$$
PBM



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