Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FGUS71 KOKX 041711
ESFOKX

FGUS71 KOKX 041708
ESFOKX
CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071-
079-081-085-087-103-119-181800-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1208 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 3...

THIS IS THE THIRD WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A SERIES
OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH
FLOODING)OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE
FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER
AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY
OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM
FEBRUARY 9TH THROUGH THE 13TH SUGGESTS NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14
DAY OUTLOOK FROM FEBRUARY 11TH THROUGH THE 17TH SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND COASTAL
CONNECTICUT TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW
JERSEY...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WITH NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER
FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

PRECIPITATION - IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES
ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL.

RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FLOWS
ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. REAL-
TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT
WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER.

SOIL MOISTURE - ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT RELATED
DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND
WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM ARE NORMAL. RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE COMBINED
13 NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY RESERVOIRS ARE NEAR 2 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL.

RIVER ICE - BELOW NORMAL.  THERE IS CURRENTLY NO RIVER ICE ACROSS
THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - DURING THE TWO WEEKS OF THIS OUTLOOK
PERIOD EXPECT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL WITH AVERAGE PRECIPITATION NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS
OFFICE...ON THURSDAY FEBRUARY 18TH, 2016.

$$



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