Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Portland, OR

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WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PST SUN FEB 08 2015

...OREGON WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK AS OF FEBRUARY 7 2015...

THE OREGON WATER SUPPLY FOR THE COMING SPRING AND SUMMER IS FORECAST
TO BE SOMEWHAT BELOW-NORMAL FOR MOST OF OREGON...ESPECIALLY FOR
BASINS EAST OF THE CASCADES...WHERE WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS RANGE
FROM 40 TO 75 PERCENT OF AVERAGE FOR APRIL-SEPTEMBER RUNOFF PERIOD.

THE BIG STORY THUS FAR THIS WINTER IS THE LACK OF SNOWPACK IN OREGON
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE CASCADES. SEVERAL NRCS SNOTEL STATIONS IN
THE CASCADES SHOW LITTLE OR NO SNOW...WITH CURRENT VALUES AT MANY
SITES BELOW THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW. THE SNOW SITUATION IS NOT DUE
TO A LACK OF PRECIPITATION BUT INSTEAD DUE TO ABNORMALLY HIGH
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION HAS ACTUALLY BEEN CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR
MUCH OF THE STATE FOR THE 2015 WATER YEAR THUS FAR...GENERALLY 80 TO
100 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OCTOBER THROUGH JANUARY...WHILE TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WINTER SEASON.
IF THE LACK OF SNOWPACK CONTINUES THROUGH THE SPRING...POSSIBLE
IMPLICATIONS INCLUDE BELOW-NORMAL SUMMER STREAMFLOW AND ABOVE-NORMAL
WATER TEMPERATURES.

REFER TO THE SECTIONS BELOW AND THE LINKS PROVIDED FOR DETAILS
REGARDING SNOWPACK...PRECIPITATION...RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AND WATER
SUPPLY FORECASTS FOR INDIVIDUAL BASINS.

NOAA`S CLIMATE OUTLOOKS INDICATES THAT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY FOR FEBRUARY AND THROUGH THE SPRING...CONTINUING THE TREND OF
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES. FOR PRECIPITATION...THE FEBRUARY
OUTLOOK LEANS ABOVE-NORMAL FOR WESTERN OREGON...WITH EQUAL CHANCES
OF NORMAL...ABOVE-NORMAL...OR BELOW-NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
STATE. THE SPRING PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK THROUGH MAY IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF NORMAL...BELOW-NORMAL...OR ABOVE-NORMAL. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEASONAL OUTLOOKS AND EL NINO CONDITIONS...VISIT THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEB PAGE AT WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

FOR THE LATEST DROUGHT INFORMATION...VISIT DROUGHT.GOV.

THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY MARCH 10TH.

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SNOWPACK ACROSS OREGON

SNOWPACK AS OF EARLY FEBRUARY WAS MUCH BELOW-NORMAL IN ALL BASINS.
FOR THE CASCADES...MANY SNOTEL STATIONS WERE REPORTING NO SNOW-WATER
EQUIVALENT...AND MANY CURRENT VALUES ARE BELOW PREVIOUS RECORD LOWS.
THE BASIN PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR BOTH THE WEST AND EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES ARE 15 TO 20 PERCENT. FOR EASTERN OREGON...THE PICTURE IS
NOT QUITE AS EXTREME...WITH BASIN AVERAGE SNOW-WATER EQUIVALENT AT
40 TO 70 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SNOWPACK VALUES HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE
FOR ALL LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT MOST OF JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY WITH
EPISODES OF RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF RAIN.
MOST SNOTEL STATIONS HAVE SEEN NO NEW SNOW SINCE EARLY JANUARY.

MAJOR INCREASES IN SNOWPACK TOTALS ARE UNLIKELY FOR FEBRUARY...AS
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER LEANS
ABOVE-NORMAL.

REFER TO THE FOLLOWING LINKS FOR MORE DETAILS.

NOAA`S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - NORTHWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
WWW.NWRFC.NOAA.GOV/SNOW/

USDA - NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE
WWW.NRCS.USDA.GOV/WPS/PORTAL/NRCS/MAIN/OR/SNOW/

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PRECIPITATION ACROSS OREGON

SEASONAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS RANGE FROM 80 TO 100 PERCENT FOR THE
FIRST FOUR MONTHS OF THE 2015 WATER YEAR. JANUARY PRECIPITATION WAS
BELOW-NORMAL FOR MOST BASINS...BUT FEBRUARY IS OFF TO A WET...ALBEIT
RELATIVELY WARM...START.

VISIT THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TOTALS.

NOAA`S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - NORTHWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
WWW.NWRFC.NOAA.GOV/WATER_SUPPLY/WY_SUMMARY/WY_SUMMARY.PHP

============================================================
MAJOR IRRIGATION RESERVOIRS

AT THE CLOSE OF JANUARY...540 THOUSAND ACRE-FEET OF WATER WAS STORED
IN 18 MAJOR IRRIGATION RESERVOIRS IN OREGON. THE CURRENT STORAGE
REPRESENTS ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF AVERAGE AND 25 PERCENT OF STORAGE
CAPACITY. OF PARTICULAR NOTE...OWYHEE RESERVOIR...THE LARGEST
IRRIGATION RESERVOIR IN OREGON...ONLY HAS 17 PERCENT OF CAPACITY.
RESERVOIR DATA IS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE NATURAL RESOURCES
CONSERVATION SERVICE.

VISIT THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE INFORMATION:
WWW.WCC.NRCS.USDA.GOV/WSF/WSF-RESERVOIR.HTML

============================================================
CURRENT AND FORECAST STREAMFLOW

OBSERVED STREAMFLOW FOR JANUARY WAS NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL IN
OREGON. VISIT WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS ON OBSERVED
STREAMFLOW.

FORECAST STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE SPRING AND SUMMER RANGE FROM 40
TO 60 PERCENT OF AVERAGE FOR BASINS IN SOUTHEAST OREGON...60 TO 75
PERCENT OF AVERAGE FOR NORTHEAST OREGON BASINS...AND 70 TO 80
PERCENT FOR WESTERN OREGON BASINS.

THE FORECAST FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER AT THE DALLES...WHICH IS A GOOD
INDEX OF CONDITIONS IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN...IS 94% OF AVERAGE FOR
THE APRIL-SEPTEMBER PERIOD.

VISIT THE FOLLOWING LINKS FOR MORE DETAILS ON BASIN-SCALE WATER
SUPPLY FORECASTS:

NOAA`S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - NORTHWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER
WWW.NWRFC.NOAA.GOV/WS/

USDA - NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE
WWW.WCC.NRCS.USDA.GOV/WSF/

BRYANT
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