Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FGUS73 KSGF 221655
ESFSGF
MOC097-105-119-145-153-161-169-203-209-KSC021-301200-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1100 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

...Near Normal Chances for River Flooding Through Late February over
the Marmaton...Little Osage...Sac...James...Jacks Fork...and North Fork
White River Basins...

...Below Normal Chances for River Flooding across the Osage...
Big Piney...Roubidoux...Gasconade...Elk and Spring River Basins...

Precipitation over the past month has been below normal areawide, ranging
from two to three inches below normal over west central Missouri, to five
inches below normal over south central Missouri. Streamflow percentiles are
currently near normal over west central Missouri and near to below normal
over the rest of the area.

Long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  11/25/2017  - 02/23/2018

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Little Osage River
Fulton              22.0   25.0   30.0 :  29   26   16   21   <5   <5
Horton              41.0   45.0   50.0 :  41   48    7   11   <5   <5
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott          38.0   42.0   43.0 :   8    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
Nevada              20.0   26.0   31.0 :  48   41   15    9   <5   <5
:Osage River
Schell City         30.0   35.0   45.0 :   8   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills     16.0   19.0   28.0 :  25   31   20   22   <5   <5
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen          21.0   26.0   30.0 :  <5   17   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Roubidoux Creek
Waynesville          7.0   14.0   20.0 :  18   41   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Big Piney
Fort Leonard Wood    8.0   15.0   23.0 :  30   47    5   15   <5   <5
:Gasconade River
Jerome              15.0   25.0   30.0 :  10   31   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Spring River
Carthage            10.0   14.0   20.0 :  <5   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
Waco                19.0   30.0   33.0 :  11   19   <5   <5   <5   <5
Baxter Springs      14.0   22.0   30.0 :   8   17   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Shoal Creek
Joplin              14.0   15.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Elk River
Tiff City           15.0   20.0   25.0 :  <5   16   <5    5   <5   <5
:James River
Galena              15.0   25.0   31.0 :  32   25    8    6   <5   <5
:North Fork White
Tecumseh            20.0   25.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Jacks Fork
Alley Spring         9.0   12.0   16.0 :  15    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Eminence            12.0   15.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5


Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 11/25/2017  - 02/23/2018
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Osage River
Fulton                3.4    4.6    6.6    9.3   24.5   27.2   27.9
Horton               28.9   31.3   34.8   39.8   42.6   43.9   46.2
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott           10.8   12.8   16.8   26.4   32.6   36.1   40.8
Nevada                6.5    9.5   14.0   19.5   23.1   28.1   29.8
:Osage River
Schell City           4.1    4.1    4.1   11.7   22.5   27.2   32.3
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills       7.2    7.3    8.4   11.1   15.8   21.6   22.9
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen            1.4    1.8    3.0    5.1    8.6   13.3   16.4
:Roubidoux Creek
Waynesville           3.0    3.0    3.7    4.4    6.4    8.4   10.0
:Big Piney
Fort Leonard Wood     2.0    2.2    3.2    5.0    9.9   13.2   15.2
:Gasconade River
Jerome                2.1    2.4    3.7    6.0   11.6   14.8   17.2
:Spring River
Carthage              2.8    3.1    3.6    4.4    6.4    8.7    9.8
Waco                  2.7    4.0    5.6   10.3   13.4   19.4   21.3
Baxter Springs        3.6    4.3    5.4    6.9    9.0   12.8   16.5
:Shoal Creek
Joplin                2.0    2.5    3.0    4.3    5.9    8.5    9.4
:Elk River
Tiff City             3.1    3.4    4.4    6.4    9.3   13.7   14.6

:James River
Galena                4.7    4.8    6.2    7.6   16.0   23.5   27.4
:North Fork White
Tecumseh              2.5    2.5    4.0    4.8    5.4    7.2   15.0
:Jacks Fork
Alley Spring          2.8    3.4    4.2    5.2    6.8    9.8   11.6
Eminence              2.5    2.8    3.5    4.8    6.5    9.2   11.6

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period. These values are only available for the river forecast
points served by the Missouri Basin River Forecast Center.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 11/25/2017  - 02/23/2018
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Osage River
Fulton                3.4    3.3    3.2    3.2    3.1    3.1    3.1
Horton               26.8   26.5   26.3   26.1   26.0   25.8   25.7
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott            7.6    7.6    7.3    7.2    7.0    7.0    6.9
Nevada                2.9    2.9    2.7    2.5    2.4    2.3    2.3
:Osage River
Schell City           4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills       5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen            0.8    0.8    0.8    0.8    0.8    0.7    0.7
:Roubidoux Creek
Waynesville           2.4    2.4    2.4    2.4    2.4    2.3    2.3
:Big Piney
Fort Leonard Wood     1.6    1.5    1.5    1.4    1.4    1.3    1.3
:Gasconade River
Jerome                1.3    1.3    1.2    1.2    1.1    1.1    1.1


By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated
with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These
probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS).

Visit our web site weather.gov/sgf ...under the rivers and lakes tab
and experimental long range risk tab for graphical representations of the
data included above.

The next outlook will be issued during the last week of December.

$$
Terry



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