Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
957 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)
Long range probabilistic outlook for the Brazos
River basin in West Central Texas


The National Weather Service office in San Angelo, Texas has
implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for
the Brazos River Basin in west central Texas. AHPS enables the
National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic
outlooks. This service is also available on the internet.


In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the
next 90 days. Example: The Clear Fork of the Brazos River near
Roby has a flood stage of 22 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
the Roby forecast point will rise above 3.5 feet during the next 90
days.


        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
            VALID [ 12/17/2014 - 03/18/2015 ]

LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------     ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
Clear Fork Brazos River
 Roby          22.0  3.5  3.5  3.5  3.5  3.5  3.8  4.0  4.8  8.7
 Nugent        18.0  1.7  1.7  1.7  1.8  2.0  2.7  3.6  4.2  5.9
 Ft Griffin    25.0  5.9  5.9  6.1  6.4  6.9  7.6  8.2  9.2 12.8
California Creek
 Stamford      28.0  6.8  6.8  6.8  6.8  6.8  6.8  6.8  7.6 12.0
Hubbard Creek
 Albany        35.0  3.5  3.5  3.5  3.5  5.2  5.8  6.6  7.5  9.0




Lake Sweetwater
    90%    80%     70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---     ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 2088.4 2088.4  2088.5 2088.5 2088.6 2088.8 2089.5 2090.1 2091.9


Lake Ft Phantom Hill
    90%    80%     70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---     ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 1618.3 1618.3  1618.3 1618.3 1618.5 1618.8 1619.1 1619.3 1621.2


Lake Stamford
    90%    80%     70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---     ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 1399.7 1399.7  1399.7 1399.7 1399.7 1399.7 1399.8 1400.5 1401.3


This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are
calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take
into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.
By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the
level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can
be determined.


Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the
internet at: www.srh.weather.gov/cgi-bin/ahps.cgi?sjt


Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third
Thursday of every month.


$$




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