Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Salt Lake City
Water Supply Summary
1245pm February 7th, 2017

             Utah Flood Potential Outlook

Great Salt Lake, Sevier, Virgin and Price/San Rafael and Duchesne
River Basins.

The 2017 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is elevated
at this time for the Bear, Weber, Provo, Duchesne river basins.

January precipitation values were between 190-290 percent of
average. Snowpacks in Utah are much above average and range from 160-
310 percent of median across the state. Many of Utah`s SNOTEL`s are
currently ranked in the top 3 highest years for the period of
record. Additionally many stations such as Ben Lomond Peak,
Strawberry Daniels and Current Creek (just to name a few) are
already well above the normal seasonal peak snow value that we
typically expect in mid April. Much above average precipitation and
below average temperature during the month of January and the
corresponding large increase in volumetric forecast have
significantly increased the flood potential for spring 2017.

It should be emphasized that snow accumulation conditions are
susceptible to change before the spring runoff begins. Although
spring temperatures affect the pattern of snowmelt runoff and
consequently the magnitude of peak flows, peak flows also roughly
correspond to volumetric flows. It is also important to keep in mind
that an extended period of much above normal temperatures or heavy
rainfall during the melt period can cause or exacerbate flooding
problems in any year but especially in much above average years like
this one.

$$

Brian McInerney
Hydrologist
National Weather Service



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