Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FGUS72 KTBW 022057
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
357 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2017
...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
...LOW FLOOD THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS...
The Florida dry season has lived up to it`s name and then some.
Very dry warm conditions have occurred during the fall and winter
months across all of west central and southwest Florida. Rainfall
deficits have run 4 to 8 inches across the region since
October 1, 2016...or 40 to 60 percent of climatological normals.
The lack of rain has resulted in below normal streamflows on area
rivers and creeks and below normal soil moisture across the
region. It has also lead to the Florida peninsula being
designated as abnormally dry (D0) to experiencing moderate
drought (D1) conditions.
The Climate Prediction Center long range models indicate there is
an equal chance for above or below normal rainfall during the next
three months over the Florida peninsula. Given the long term
antecedent dry conditions, it would take an extreme rainfall
event for significant flooding to develop across the region.
These factors lead to a low threat for spring flooding across
west central and southwest Florida.