Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN RIVER BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 9/29/2014 - 12/28/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Mill Creek
AVOM4             6.0  999.0  999.0    21   14   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Black River
FGOM4             8.0  999.0  999.0    76   32   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Clinton River
FSRM4            16.0   17.0   19.0    17   10   10    6    6   <5
:North Branch Clinton River
MCLM4            15.0   16.0   18.0     9    6    7   <5   <5   <5
:Clinton River
MTCM4            16.0   17.0   18.0     6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:River Rouge
DETM4            15.0   18.0   20.0    18   10    6   <5   <5   <5
:Middle River Rouge
GACM4            10.0   11.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Lower River Rouge
INKM4            10.0   12.0   13.0    20    7   10   <5   <5   <5
:Mill Creek
DEXM4            12.0   13.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Huron River
HMGM4             6.5    7.0    7.5    32   15   14   10    7    7
ANNM4            16.0   17.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:River Raisin
TECM4            13.0   14.0   15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ADRM4            18.0   19.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
BLIM4           683.0  685.0  687.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DNDM4           650.0  652.0  653.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MONM4             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0922 Z DH12 /DC1409221700/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 9/29/2014 - 12/28/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Mill Creek
AVOM4       2.5/    2.9/    3.9/    5.1/    5.8/    6.9/    7.4
:Black River
FGOM4       6.0/    6.5/    8.1/    9.1/    9.9/   11.3/   14.8
:Clinton River
FSRM4       9.7/   10.6/   12.0/   14.4/   15.3/   17.9/   19.6
:North Branch Clinton River
MCLM4       7.0/    7.8/   10.3/   11.7/   12.8/   15.1/   17.1
:Clinton River
MTCM4       6.3/    6.9/    7.7/    9.3/   10.5/   14.2/   16.6
:River Rouge
DETM4       8.9/   10.6/   11.9/   13.3/   14.5/   17.1/   19.1
:Middle River Rouge
GACM4       4.6/    5.3/    7.2/    7.9/    8.6/    9.2/    9.8
:Lower River Rouge
INKM4       5.9/    6.8/    7.9/    9.0/    9.8/   12.2/   12.7
:Mill Creek
DEXM4       6.4/    7.1/    7.9/    8.5/    9.1/   10.3/   10.7
:Huron River
HMGM4       5.1/    5.2/    5.5/    6.2/    6.7/    7.4/    7.8
ANNM4      12.5/   12.7/   13.1/   13.5/   14.0/   14.4/   15.0
:River Raisin
TECM4       5.8/    6.3/    7.3/    8.1/    8.7/    9.4/   10.0
ADRM4       5.5/    6.0/    7.5/    9.0/   10.6/   11.5/   12.7
BLIM4     675.9/  676.2/  677.0/  678.1/  679.3/  680.4/  681.9
DNDM4     638.9/  639.2/  640.5/  641.8/  643.4/  645.1/  647.2
MONM4       5.1/    5.5/    6.3/    6.9/    7.6/    7.9/    8.4
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0922 Z DH12 /DC1409221700/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 9/29/2014 - 12/28/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Mill Creek
AVOM4       1.0/    1.0/    0.9/    0.9/    0.9/    0.8/    0.8
:Black River
FGOM4       3.7/    3.6/    3.6/    3.5/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4
:Clinton River
FSRM4       6.2/    6.1/    5.8/    5.6/    5.3/    5.1/    5.0
:North Branch Clinton River
MCLM4       4.5/    4.4/    4.3/    4.3/    4.2/    4.2/    4.2
:Clinton River
MTCM4       4.8/    4.7/    4.6/    4.4/    4.3/    4.2/    4.2
:River Rouge
DETM4       5.1/    5.0/    4.9/    4.7/    4.5/    4.4/    4.4
:Middle River Rouge
GACM4       2.1/    2.1/    1.9/    1.8/    1.8/    1.7/    1.7
:Lower River Rouge
INKM4       3.2/    3.2/    3.1/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0/    2.9
:Mill Creek
DEXM4       5.8/    5.8/    5.7/    5.7/    5.6/    5.6/    5.6
:Huron River
HMGM4       5.1/    5.0/    4.9/    4.8/    4.8/    4.7/    4.7
ANNM4      12.3/   12.3/   12.2/   12.2/   12.1/   12.1/   12.0
:River Raisin
TECM4       4.5/    4.4/    4.3/    4.3/    4.2/    4.1/    4.1
ADRM4       3.9/    3.9/    3.8/    3.7/    3.7/    3.6/    3.6
BLIM4     675.3/  675.2/  675.2/  675.1/  675.1/  675.1/  675.1
DNDM4     637.6/  637.5/  637.5/  637.4/  637.3/  637.2/  637.2
MONM4       4.0/    3.9/    3.8/    3.8/    3.7/    3.6/    3.6
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$




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