Extended Streamflow Guidance
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FGUS65 KSTR 051946
ESGUT

National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
April 5, 2016

                       FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
                                UTAH


The 2016 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is not high at this time
for the Great Basin, as well as the Sevier, Virgin, Price/San Rafael, and the
Duchesne River Basins.

Current snowpack conditions in the above basins are at near normal to slightly
below normal conditions.  Current seasonal snowpack conditions as a percent of
median are:

Virgin River Basin              100%
Sevier River Basin              100%
Price/San Rafael River Basin     85%
Duchesne River Basin             85%
Great Basin
--Bear River Basin              100%
--Weber River Basin             100%
--Six Creeks Basin               95%
--Utah Lake                      90%

Currently, the following sites are forecast to peak at or above the bankfull
flow at the given exceedance level:

Provo River Near Woodland, UT    10%
Green River Near Jensen, UT      10%

No sites are currently forecasted to reach flood stage at this time.

Specific forecast procedures and flood flow levels do not exist for all streams.
Given current snowpack conditions, below average to near average peaks may be
anticipated throughout the state.

Current volume forecasts for the April through July runoff period are below
average to near average over the state.  In particular, volume forecasts
in the southern portion of the state and Great Basin are well below average.

It should be emphasized that snow conditions could change significantly before
seasonal runoff begins. While spring temperatures affect the pattern of snowmelt
runoff and, consequently, the magnitude of peak flows, peak flows also approximately
correspond to volumetric flows. It is also important to recognize that an extended
period of much above average temperatures or heavy rainfall during the melt period can
cause or exacerbate flooding problems in any year.

A list of specific spring peak flow forecasts are available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/rmap/peak/peaklist.php

A map of the current spring peak flow forecasts is available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/lmap/lmap.php?interface=peak


CBRFC/W.P. Miller, A.Nielson, T. Cox

NNNN
$$




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