Extended Streamflow Prediction
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FGUS65 KSTR 041548
ESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH

February 4, 2015

ARIZONA WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK - As of February 1 2015:


Precipitation:

Seasonal October-January precipitation ranged from 85 percent of average
in the Salt, 90 percent of average in the Verde, 90 percent of average
in the upper Gila Basin, and 105 percent of average in the Little Colorado
basin.

Much above to above average precipitation occurred throughout Arizona in January.
In general, January precipitation amounts received were 120 to 170 percent
of average.

Streamflow:

January streamflow was near 30 percent of median on the Salt and Verde Rivers.
Streamflow was 50 percent of median for January in the Gila Basin. In the Little
Colorado Basin, streamflow was near 65 percent of median.

Snow:

February 1st snowpack was 15 percent of average in the Verde Basin,
near 65 percent of average in the upper Salt River Basin, and near 40 percent
of average in the southern headwaters of the Little Colorado Basin. Snowpack
conditions were near 75 percent of average in the upper Gila drainage.

Soil Moisture:

Modeled soil moisture states vary with most areas below to near average at this
time. However, the January through May runoff volumes are primarily
influenced by the frequency and magnitude of winter rain events.


Climate Condtions:

Forecast weak El Nino climate conditions suggest above average precipitation
through the spring. The weak El Nino climate condition was accounted for in
generation of seasonal streamflow volume forecasts.

Forecast Summary:

February-May streamflow volume forecasts are for the most part below to near
median across Arizona. Lowest forecasts are in the Little Colorado River Basin.
Highest forecasts are 96 to 136 percent of median and are for the upper Gila.
The wet January was consistent with El Nino climate conditions that are
forecast. Cliamte forecasts suggest abovew average precipitation into the spring.


Afos message output for EGDD: /elmatador/home/tjc/wsup/wy15/lc/lcfeb.drv
Developed:                    Feb 1 2015

LOWER Colorado
                                  Period      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
Little Colorado River
  Lyman Lk, abv, St. Johns, nr    Feb-Jun    3.2    48    7.1   1.31    6.6
Zuni River
  Black Rock Res, abv             Feb-May   0.27    71   1.26   0.11   0.38
Chevelon Ck
  Winslow, nr, Wildcat Cyn, blo   Feb-May    6.3    45   15.8   1.89   13.9
Gila River
  Gila, nr                        Feb-May     48    96    105     36     50
  Virden, nr, Blue Ck, blo        Feb-May     62    98    133     39     63
San Francisco River
  Glenwood, nr                    Feb-May   18.1    99     39   11.8   18.2
  Clifton                         Feb-May     50    98    110     33     51
Gila River
  Solomon, nr, Head Of Safford V  Feb-May    140   114    280     97    123
  San Carlos Res, Coolidge Dam,   Feb-May    110   136    260     70     81
Salt River
  Roosevelt, nr                   Feb-May    200    70    355     85    285
Tonto Ck
  Roosevelt, nr, Gun Ck, abv      Feb-May     30    86    105   12.1     35
Verde River
  Blo Tangle Ck, abv Horsehoe Da  Feb-May    120    88    295     59    136

MP    Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
MP%   Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
RMAX  Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
RMIN  Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

CBRFC

****************************************************************************

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY:

                      January `15      SEASONAL
BASIN                 % Average       % Average

  Upper Gila            150               90
  Salt                  120               85
  Verde                 120               90
  Little Colorado       170              105
  Bill Williams         135               90

***************************************************************************

SNOWPACK SUMMARY:

                     February 1 2015
BASIN                  % Median

  Upper Gila              75
  San Francisco           100
  Upper Salt              65
  Verde                   15
  Little Colorado         40


***************************************************************************

OBSERVED STREAM FLOW SUMMARY:

                      January `15
BASIN                  % Median

  Gila                    50
  Salt                    30
  Verde                   25
  Little Colorado         65

**************************************************************************

For additional forecast information and graphical presentation material
refer to the Water Supply section of the CBRFC web page at:
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/pub2/map/html/cpub.php

CBRFC

NNNN

$$



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