Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS

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FGUS65 KSTR 032013
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COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SALT LAKE CITY UT
JAN 3, 2018

WATER SUPPLY INFORMATION FOR
    SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN


PRECIPITATION (% OF AVERAGE) AND SNOWPACK (% OF MEDIAN):

SUBBASIN                 DEC PRECIP     OCT-DEC PREC    JAN 1 SNOWPACK
----------------------   ----------     ------------    ---------------
ABOVE NAVAJO RES              20             30                25
ANIMAS                        15             20                25
LOWER SAN JUAN                30             20                 -

******************************************************************************
OBSERVED STREAMFLOW SUMMARY (% OF AVERAGE):

                         DEC FLOW       OCT-DEC FLOW
----------------------   --------       ------------
BASIN AVERAGE                40%             60%

******************************************************************************
RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF JAN 1:

RESERVOIR                % AVERAGE
---------------------    ----------
NAVAJO                       95
VALLECITO                   104
LEMON                        90

TOTAL                        95

San Juan River Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Pagosa Springs           Apr-Jul    118    55    200    144    100     75    215
  Carracas, nr             Apr-Jul    215    57    350    260    180    140    380
Rio Blanco River
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Bla  Apr-Jul     35    65     56     43     27     20     54
Navajo River
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam  Apr-Jul     42    65     68     52     35     27     65
Piedra River
  Arboles, nr              Apr-Jul     92    44    180    120     77     58    210
Los Pinos River
  Vallecito Res, Bayfield  Apr-Jul    100    52    170    120     77     55    194
San Juan River
  Navajo Res, Archuleta,   Apr-Jul    350    48    640    460    295    230    735
Florida River
  Lemon Res, Durango, nr   Apr-Jul     27    49     53     35   21.0   15.0     55
Animas River
  Durango                  Apr-Jul    200    48    320    240    170    125    415
San Juan River
  Farmington               Apr-Jul    460    42    830    610    420    300   1100
La Plata River
  Hesperus                 Apr-Jul   11.0    48     21     14    7.0    5.0     23
San Juan River
  Bluff, nr                Apr-Jul    440    40    840    600    400    270   1100
Mancos River
  Mancos, nr               Apr-Jul   14.0    45     31     19   11.0    8.0     31


50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

CBRFC/G.Smith



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