Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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048
FNUS21 KWNS 091634
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CST TUE FEB 09 2016

VALID 091700Z - 101200Z

...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
RECENT OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A LAX-TPH GRADIENT OF -13 MB AND A
LAX-DAG GRADIENT OF -6 MB WITH SEVERAL SITES ACROSS THE REGION
REPORTING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.
GUSTY WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO STAY CONFINED TO THE FAVORED
CANYONS AND PASSES. RECORD-BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO UPPER 80S /15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE/. ISOLATED AREAS MAY REACH 90 DEGREES.
WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME AREAS
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
AMIDST OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT. LACK OF STRONGER WINDS AND SMALL SPATIAL EXTENT OF
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL TEMPER THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT AND
PRECLUDE CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

...MUCH OF TX...
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING MIN RH VALUES FROM
15-20 PERCENT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND S TX TO CLOSER TO 25
PERCENT ACROSS THE CNTR/ERN TX AND THE MIDDLE/ERN TX COAST. THESE
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AMIDST SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW RH VALUES
ANTICIPATED...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX AND THE MIDDLE/ERN TX COAST. ONLY FACTOR
PRECLUDING CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS IS THE LACK OF
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 MPH.

..MOSIER.. 02/09/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST TUE FEB 09 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY...WITH SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE
ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST LATE.  AT THE SURFACE...BROADLY
CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AROUND A WEAK LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION DUE TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
HOWEVER...THIS GRADIENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...SUGGESTING WEAKER WINDS AREAWIDE AND A LOWER ATTENDANT FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.  NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED DRYING OF FUELS OVER
SEVERAL PREVIOUS DAYS OF WARM/DRY CONDITIONS...ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND LOCALIZED GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH /ESPECIALLY IN
TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS/ SUGGEST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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