Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 061552
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2016

VALID 061700Z - 071200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
AZ...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NM...AND FAR WEST TX...

...MUCH OF NM...WEST TX...AND SERN AZ...
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF
SRN/CNTRL NM...SERN AZ...AND FAR WEST TX IS ON TRACK. AN INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS SHOULD OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
A MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX OVER THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
OF 20-30 MPH BECOMING COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM/WEST TX INTO
ERN CO/WRN KS...BUT MORE ABUNDANT RECENT RAINFALL AND LESS RECEPTIVE
FUELS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ONLY AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK.

ACROSS SERN NM AND FAR WEST TX...A SWD EXPANSION OF THE ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM RISK AREA HAS BEEN MADE TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BIG
BEND AREA. LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG A N-S LINE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS
AREA...AMIDST A VERY DRY/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND 30-40 KT OF
MIDLEVEL FLOW.

...PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO WRN MN AND NRN IA...
THE OBSERVED 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM MPX AND INL DEPICT ANOMALOUSLY WARM
TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERE...AND WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 F THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP
BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF A SEWD MOVING DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN RH VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT FROM NRN IA INTO SRN/CNTRL MN
DURING PEAK HEATING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALIGN WITH SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE...FOR A WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ALSO PERSIST IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL MN AS WINDS SHIFT TO OUT OF THE N THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE RH VALUES WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE.

ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ACROSS SRN MN ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE
PRESENCE OF A DRY/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN LIMITED
PRECIPITATION TOTALS...AND ALSO BRING INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.

..ROGERS.. 05/06/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0323 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM...RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHILE ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THE SFC RESPONSE WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROUGH IN THE
LEE OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE OVER MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS.
ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER HIGH WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE OZARKS TOWARDS
THE GULF COAST.

...PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...
AS A CORRIDOR OF VIGOROUS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...DEEP DIURNAL MIXING WILL PROMOTE GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SUSTAINED VALUES AROUND 20-35 MPH
WILL COMBINE WITH RH VALUES AROUND 10-15 PERCENT...AND THESE
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH DRY FUELS TO
PROMOTE CRITICAL FIRE-WX CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
AZ...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NM...AND PARTS OF FAR WESTERN TX. WHILE
CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR FARTHER
NORTHEAST AS WELL...LESS-RECEPTIVE FUELS DUE TO ONGOING GREEN-UP
SHOULD TEMPER THE THREAT SOME. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING WINDS WILL BE
UPWARDS OF 25-30 MPH SUSTAINED AND RH VALUES MAY FALL BELOW 15
PERCENT...ELEVATED FIRE-WX CONCERNS APPEAR PROBABLE. AS SUCH...THE
ONGOING ELEVATED AREA IS EXPANDED FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.

THE ISOLATED DRY-THUNDERSTORM AREA IS ALSO MAINTAINED WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. INCREASING BACKGROUND ASCENT SHOULD OFFER ENOUGH
COOLING/MOISTENING OF MID LEVELS SUCH THAT SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY WILL
EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVELY QUICK
STORM MOTIONS...PW VALUES AROUND 0.5-0.8 INCHES...AND DEEP/DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS WILL ENCOURAGE DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND ERRATIC
FIRE BEHAVIOR DUE TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN...WESTERN WI...
ELEVATED FIRE-WX CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...AS WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR EMANATING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OZARKS CONTINUES
TO STREAM NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD...MIN RH VALUES AROUND 20-30 PERCENT
SHOULD BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH WILL ENHANCE THE FIRE-WX THREAT
SUFFICIENTLY SUCH THAT ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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