Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 221701
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Valid 221700Z - 231200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...Portions of eastern Wyoming, northwest Nebraska, and the
Dakotas...
An Elevated fire weather area has been introduced across the
Northern Plains and vicinity. This is supported by 16Z surface
observations, which are already indicating several pockets of RH
values around 20-25% in conjunction with sustained surface winds
around 15-20 mph. Additionally, latest hi-resolution guidance
suggests continuation/expansion of these conditions across the
Elevated area through late afternoon in areas where fuels
(especially fine fuels) are at least marginally receptive.

...Southern California...
No changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. See previous
discussion below for more information on today`s fire weather threat
over Southern California.

..Elliott.. 10/22/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0224 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017/

...Synopsis...
The primary synoptic features of interest are 1) an expansive area
of high pressure in the Great Basin an Intermountain West and 2) a
weak surface trough along the California coast.  A synoptically
evident fire weather scenario will evolve throughout the forecast
period as the surface pressure gradient between these two systems
fosters strong, dry offshore flow across parts of southern
California.

...Coastal Ranges of Southern California...
An extended period of gusty north to northeasterly low-level flow
will persist throughout the day across the delineated fire weather
threat areas.  15-25 mph surface winds (with gusts to 50 mph in
terrain-favored areas) will persist throughout the day.  Daytime
heating will aid in increasingly warm surface temperatures (perhaps
rising into the low 90s) along with RH values falling to around
10-15%.  At least elevated fire weather conditions will persist into
the overnight hours due to persistently gusty winds and poor
overnight recovery.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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