Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 260906
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
506 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND THEN COOLER
TO START THE WORK WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAKEN STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE SEASONAL MID SUMMER TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS MONDAY...WITH
ONLY A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-262045-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
506 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........66-71 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (490).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.13 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. PATCHY
                    FOG AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (310).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.13-0.23 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-262045-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
506 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
                    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (810).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.15 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2300. PATCHY
                    FOG AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........69-74 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    AROUND 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.18 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-262045-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
506 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1400. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (500).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (370).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.19-0.30 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-262045-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
506 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1400. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (450).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (420).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.25-0.31 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-262045-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
506 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400. SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (750).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.13 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2300. PATCHY
                    FOG AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (360).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.26 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SWR





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