Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 311947
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
347 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

...PERSISTENT PATTERN OF MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS CONTINUES...

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER AROUND JAMES BAY
BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY ...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO END THE WEEKEND...WITH THE THREAT
FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO START NEXT WORK WEEK.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-010830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
347 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 2400. PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52...EXCEPT 54-59 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
                    MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78...EXCEPT 64-69 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (530).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT AROUND 71 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT...EXCEPT 53-58 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (490).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-010830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
347 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2400. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53...EXCEPT 55-60 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN
                    THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (330).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND
                    6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT 64-69 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-010830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
347 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 2400. PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53...EXCEPT 56-61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND 3
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT 59-64 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (570).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 2 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (450).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND
                    6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-010830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
347 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2400. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53...EXCEPT 55-60 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
                    MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (840).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND
                    9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (470).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND
                    6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-010830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
347 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2400. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN
                    THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND
                    3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (630).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (390).
MIXING HEIGHT.......9400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT WINDS.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

AM





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