Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FNUS51 KBUF 110848
FWFBUF

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR WESTERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
348 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
OUT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN
THE LAKE SNOWS LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN
AREAS. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WHILE BRINGING A BURST OF SNOW
TO MOST AREAS... WITH DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS THEN FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

NYZ001-002-010-011-112115-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
348 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          FRI
CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY        PCLDY        MCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                     70            0           60
PRECIP TYPE              SNOW SHOWERS         NONE SNOW SHOWERS
MIN/MAX TEMP                       14            9           24
AM WIND (MPH)                   NW 18                     SW 12
PM WIND (MPH)                    W 18         W 11        SW 17
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.04         0.00         0.15
PRECIP DURATION                     8                         8
PRECIP BEGIN                     6 AM                      6 AM
PRECIP END                       6 PM                CONTINUING
MAX/MIN HUMIDITY (%)               60           83           62
HAINES INDEX                        3            3            3
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              5700           70         5030
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             NW 25         W 21        SW 27
VENT RATE (KT-FT)              142500         1470       135810
DISPERSION INDEX                  143            1          136
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ012-019>021-085-112115-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
348 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          FRI
CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                     60           40           60
PRECIP TYPE                      SNOW SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS
MIN/MAX TEMP                       14            6           20
AM WIND (MPH)                   NW 17                     SW 13
PM WIND (MPH)                   NW 17         W 11        SW 16
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.09         0.04         0.11
PRECIP DURATION                    12            5            8
PRECIP BEGIN                     6 AM   CONTINUING   CONTINUING
PRECIP END                 CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING
MAX/MIN HUMIDITY (%)               54           84           62
HAINES INDEX                        3            3            3
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              6790           70         5180
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             NW 27        NW 21        SW 25
VENT RATE (KT-FT)              183330         1470       129500
DISPERSION INDEX                  183            1          130
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-112115-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
348 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          FRI
CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                     70           40           40
PRECIP TYPE                      SNOW SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS
MIN/MAX TEMP                       16            8           24
AM WIND (MPH)                    W 17                     SW 11
PM WIND (MPH)                   NW 20         W 13        SW 14
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.11         0.03         0.04
PRECIP DURATION                    12            6            1
PRECIP BEGIN                     6 AM   CONTINUING        12 PM
PRECIP END                 CONTINUING         3 AM   CONTINUING
MAX/MIN HUMIDITY (%)               55           90           59
HAINES INDEX                        3            3            3
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              6800           70         5810
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             NW 31        NW 26        SW 23
VENT RATE (KT-FT)              210800         1820       133630
DISPERSION INDEX                  211            2          134
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ006>008-112115-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
348 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          FRI
CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY        MCLDY       CLOUDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                     50           50           80
PRECIP TYPE              SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS
MIN/MAX TEMP                       13           -1           23
AM WIND (MPH)                   NW 10                      S 10
PM WIND (MPH)                   NW 14        NW 11        SW 12
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.05         0.03         0.20
PRECIP DURATION                     4            4           12
PRECIP BEGIN                     6 AM   CONTINUING   CONTINUING
PRECIP END                 CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING
MAX/MIN HUMIDITY (%)               61           94           63
HAINES INDEX                        3            3            3
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              5650           70         5270
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             NW 16        NW 20        SW 24
VENT RATE (KT-FT)               90400         1400       126480
DISPERSION INDEX                   90            1          126
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW. LOWS AROUND 1 BELOW.
.SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AND
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 1.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 7 BELOW. HIGHS AROUND 10.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. NOT AS COLD. LOWS
AROUND 3. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN
THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.

WIND FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
WIND SATURDAY...NORTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH.
WIND SUNDAY...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
WIND MONDAY...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.  PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.

$$


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