Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FNUS51 KBUF 231021
FWFBUF

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR WESTERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
521 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS WARMER
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

NYZ001-002-010-011-232115-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
521 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          MON
CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                     50           80           60
PRECIP TYPE                   SHOWERS         RAIN      SHOWERS
MAX/MIN TEMP                       50           45           62
AM WIND (MPH)                   SW 11                      S 18
PM WIND (MPH)                    S  9        SE 11         S 21
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.02         0.24         0.10
PRECIP DURATION                     2            4            5
PRECIP BEGIN                    10 AM        11 PM   CONTINUING
PRECIP END                       2 PM   CONTINUING   CONTINUING
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               73           84           62
HAINES INDEX                        3            3            2
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)               940           70         3740
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             SW 13        SE 11         S 40
VENT RATE (KT-FT)               12220          770       149600
DISPERSION INDEX                   12            1          150
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ012-019>021-085-232115-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
521 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          MON
CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                     40           80           60
PRECIP TYPE                   SHOWERS         RAIN      SHOWERS
MAX/MIN TEMP                       48           44           61
AM WIND (MPH)                   SW 10                      S 19
PM WIND (MPH)                    S 12         S 17         S 21
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.03         0.16         0.08
PRECIP DURATION                     2            4            4
PRECIP BEGIN                     7 AM        11 PM   CONTINUING
PRECIP END                       2 PM   CONTINUING   CONTINUING
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               66           86           65
HAINES INDEX                        3            3            2
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)               640           70         4510
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)              S 14        SE 16         S 40
VENT RATE (KT-FT)                8960         1120       180400
DISPERSION INDEX                    9            1          180
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-232115-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
521 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          MON
CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                     40           70           60
PRECIP TYPE                   SHOWERS         RAIN      SHOWERS
MAX/MIN TEMP                       52           44           65
AM WIND (MPH)                   SW  9                      S 19
PM WIND (MPH)                    S  9         S 13         S 20
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.02         0.12         0.07
PRECIP DURATION                     2            4            5
PRECIP BEGIN                    11 AM        11 PM   CONTINUING
PRECIP END                       2 PM   CONTINUING   CONTINUING
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               69           83           59
HAINES INDEX                        2            4            2
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)               850           70         5020
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             SW 11         S 13         S 38
VENT RATE (KT-FT)                9350          910       190760
DISPERSION INDEX                    9            1          191
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ006>008-232115-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
521 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          MON
CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                     50           80           80
PRECIP TYPE                   SHOWERS         RAIN      SHOWERS
MAX/MIN TEMP                       48           41           62
AM WIND (MPH)                   SW  7                     SE 18
PM WIND (MPH)                    S  7        SE 10         S 17
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.03         0.25         0.26
PRECIP DURATION                     3            4            8
PRECIP BEGIN                     6 AM         1 AM   CONTINUING
PRECIP END                      11 AM   CONTINUING   CONTINUING
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               75           89           63
HAINES INDEX                        2            3            2
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              1660           70         3070
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             SW 14         S 12        SW 33
VENT RATE (KT-FT)               23240          840       101310
DISPERSION INDEX                   23            1          101
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE MID 30S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S.

WIND MONDAY NIGHT...BREEZY. SOUTH AROUND 25 MPH.
WIND TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH.
WIND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
WIND THURSDAY...SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.  PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.

$$







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