Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FNUS52 KILM 221939
FWFILM

Fire Weather Planning Forecast
for Northeast South Carolina and Southeast North Carolina
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
339 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Waves of low pressure will develop along a stalled cold front,
producing increased chance of showers and thunderstorms through
Wednesday night. A cold front associated with low pressure over
the Ohio Valley will move across the area early Thursday, bringing
and end to any lingering storms. High pressure will build in from
the west on Friday and linger over the region into the start of next
week.

Fog potential for tonight...Low

NCZ105>110-231145-
Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-Inland New Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-
Inland Brunswick-Coastal Brunswick-
Including the cities of Burgaw, Surf City, Wilmington, Masonboro,
Myrtle Grove, Ogden, Carolina Beach, Seagate, Boiling Spring Lakes,
Leland, Shallotte, Oak Island, Long Beach, Southport,
and Sunset Beach
339 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud amount          MCldy        Cloudy       Cloudy       MCldy
Precip chc (%)        70           80           80           90
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
LAL                   4            5            5            3
Min/Max Temp          69           81           66           80
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    SW  6        S  8 G24     SW 10 G25    SW  8
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     S  4         SW 11 G25    SW  8        S 12 G21
Precip amount         0.35         0.53         0.36         0.45
Precip duration       6            12           8            9
Inversion             2100         72/0900      2100         71/0800
Dispersion            Fair                      Good
Max/Min RH (%)        95           67           95           65
DSI                                2                         2
Haines Index          3            3            3            3
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)                4300                      3460
Transport wnd (mph)                SW 25                     SW 28
Ventilation rate                   107500                    96880
ADI early             37 Fair      54 Gen good  58 Gen good  25 Fair
ADI late              4 Very poor  70 Good      8 poor       71 Good
Max LVORI early       6            6            5            6
Max LVORI late        7            3            6            2

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Breezy. Showers and scattered thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 60s. Maximum RH 91 percent. Chance of precipitation
near 100 percent. Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 54 percent.
Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Cooler. Lows in the upper 50s.
Maximum RH 88 percent. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 43 percent. West
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Maximum RH
93 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 49 percent. West
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH 96 percent.
South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 57 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 95 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 59 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

NCZ099-231145-
Columbus-
Including the cities of Whiteville, Tabor City, Chadbourn,
and Lake Waccamaw
339 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud amount          MCldy        Cloudy       Cloudy       MCldy
Precip chc (%)        70           90           90           90
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
LAL                   4            5            5            3
Min/Max Temp          69           81           65           80
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    S  5         S  7         SW  8        SW  7
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     S  3         SW  8        SW  7        S 10
Precip amount         0.36         0.60         0.35         0.41
Precip duration       5            12           7            9
Inversion             2100         72/0900      2100         69/0800
Dispersion            Poor                      Fair
Max/Min RH (%)        95           69           100          67
DSI                                2                         2
Haines Index          3            3            3            3
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)                4220                      3460
Transport wnd (mph)                SW 17                     S 28
Ventilation rate                   71740                     96880
ADI early             35 Fair      34 Fair      46 Gen good  23 Fair
ADI late              4 Very poor  45 Gen good  7 poor       71 Good
Max LVORI early       7            6            6            8
Max LVORI late        7            3            8            3

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers and scattered thunderstorms. Lows in the
upper 60s. Maximum RH 96 percent. Chance of precipitation
90 percent. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 53 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH
92 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 42 percent. West
winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Maximum RH
98 percent. West winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 47 percent.
West winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH
98 percent. South winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 55 percent.
Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 97 percent.
Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 55 percent.
Southwest winds around 5 mph.

$$

NCZ087-096-231145-
Robeson-Bladen-
Including the cities of Lumberton, Elizabethtown, and Bladenboro
339 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud amount          MCldy        Cloudy       Cloudy       MCldy
Precip chc (%)        70           90           90           90
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
LAL                   4            5            5            3
Min/Max Temp          68           79           64           79
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    S  3         S  6         S  7         SW  6
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     SE  3        SW  7        SW  5        S 10
Precip amount         0.41         0.76         0.37         0.38
Precip duration       8            12           4            9
Inversion             2100         71/0900      2100         67/0800
Dispersion            Poor                      Fair
Max/Min RH (%)        96           72           100          66
DSI                                2                         2
Haines Index          3            3            3            3
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)                3680                      3460
Transport wnd (mph)                SW 17                     S 21
Ventilation rate                   62560                     72660
ADI early             32 Fair      24 Fair      46 Gen good  21 Fair
ADI late              4 Very poor  48 Gen good  5 Very poor  57 Gen good
Max LVORI early       7            6            6            9
Max LVORI late        7            4            9            3

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers and scattered thunderstorms. Lows in the
mid 60s. Maximum RH 97 percent. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
South winds around 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 53 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH
91 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 42 percent. West
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Maximum RH
98 percent. West winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 46 percent. West
winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH
97 percent. South winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 52 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Maximum RH 97 percent. Southwest
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 51 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

SCZ053>056-231145-
Inland Horry-Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-
Including the cities of Conway, Red Hill, Myrtle Beach, Socastee,
North Myrtle Beach, Garden City, Little River, Andrews, Georgetown,
and Murrells Inlet
339 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud amount          MCldy        MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Precip chc (%)        70           80           80           90
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
LAL                   4            5            5            3
Min/Max Temp          69           82           66           80
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    SW  6        SW  9 G21    SW 10 G22    SW 10
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     S  5         SW 11 G21    SW  8        S 13 G24
Precip amount         0.30         0.47         0.36         0.48
Precip duration       6            12           8            10
Inversion             2100         73/0900      2100         71/0800
Dispersion            Fair                      Good
Max/Min RH (%)        95           68           97           66
DSI                                2                         2
Haines Index          3            3            3            3
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)                4140                      3410
Transport wnd (mph)                SW 17                     S 30
Ventilation rate                   70380                     102300
ADI early             32 Fair      34 Fair      45 Gen good  28 Fair
ADI late              5 Very poor  49 Gen good  9 poor       78 Good
Max LVORI early       6            6            5            6
Max LVORI late        6            3            6            3

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers and scattered thunderstorms. Lows in the
upper 60s. Maximum RH 92 percent. Chance of precipitation near
100 percent. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 53 percent.
Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH
89 percent. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 43 percent. West
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Maximum RH
93 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 47 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH
97 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 56 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 98 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 58 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

SCZ024-032-033-039-231145-
Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-
Including the cities of Dillon, Florence, Marion, Mullins,
and Kingstree
339 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud amount          Cloudy       Cloudy       MCldy        MCldy
Precip chc (%)        70           90           90           90
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
LAL                   4            5            5            3
Min/Max Temp          68           80           65           80
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    S  4         S  7         S  9         SW  8
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     S  4         SW  9        SW  7        S 11
Precip amount         0.41         0.53         0.32         0.49
Precip duration       5            12           8            9
Inversion             2100         72/0900      2100         69/0800
Dispersion            Fair                      Fair
Max/Min RH (%)        98           70           100          66
DSI                                2                         2
Haines Index          3            3            3            3
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)                3720                      3440
Transport wnd (mph)                SW 16                     S 24
Ventilation rate                   59520                     82560
ADI early             26 Fair      30 Fair      46 Gen good  27 Fair
ADI late              4 Very poor  44 Gen good  7 poor       63 Good
Max LVORI early       7            7            6            8
Max LVORI late        7            3            8            3

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers and scattered thunderstorms. Lows in the
mid 60s. Maximum RH 96 percent. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
South winds around 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 51 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH
92 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 42 percent. West
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 60. Maximum RH 97 percent.
West winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 45 percent.
Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH
99 percent. South winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 50 percent.
Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH 98 percent.
Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 51 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

SCZ017-023-231145-
Marlboro-Darlington-
Including the cities of Bennettsville, McColl, Hartsville,
Darlington, and North Hartsville
339 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

                      Tonight      Tue          Tue Night    Wed

Cloud amount          MCldy        Cloudy       MCldy        MCldy
Precip chc (%)        70           90           90           90
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
LAL                   4            5            5            3
Min/Max Temp          67           78           64           78
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    SW  3        S  4         S  7         S  6
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     S  4         SW  7        SW  5        S 10
Precip amount         0.50         0.75         0.43         0.52
Precip duration       7            12           5            9
Inversion             2100         70/0900      2100         66/0800
Dispersion            Poor                      Fair
Max/Min RH (%)        97           73           100          68
DSI                                2                         2
Haines Index          3            3            3            3
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)                3500                      3550
Transport wnd (mph)                SW 20                     S 22
Ventilation rate                   70000                     78100
ADI early             17 Gen poor  11 poor      48 Gen good  22 Fair
ADI late              3 Very poor  52 Gen good  4 Very poor  58 Gen good
Max LVORI early       6            8            6            9
Max LVORI late        8            4            9            3

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers likely and scattered
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH 95 percent. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. South winds around 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH 51 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
93 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 43 percent. West
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 60. Maximum RH 99 percent.
West winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 45 percent.
West winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH 99 percent. South
winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 48 percent.
Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH 97 percent.
Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.MEMORIAL DAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 50 percent. West
winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures above normal.  Precipitation above normal.

$$


     SC USERS                               NC USERS
===================================================================
VENTILATION RATE         BURN CATEGORY  VENTILATION RATE
===================================================================
    0 TO 17249                 1             0 TO 33499
17250 TO 34499                 2         33500 TO 44999
34500 TO 51749                 3         45000 TO 59999
51750 TO 68999                 4         60000 TO 111999
69000 OR GREATER               5        112000 OR GREATER

     SC USERS                               NC USERS
===================================================================
FORECAST SURFACE WIND    DISPERSION    FORECAST SURFACE WIND
===================================================================
                         STAGNANT       NEAR CALM
CALM                     VERY POOR      2 TO 4 MPH
2 TO 5 MPH                 POOR         5 TO 8 MPH
6 TO 8 MPH                 FAIR         9 TO 12 MPH
9 TO 13 MPH                GOOD         GREATER THAN 12 MPH
14 MPH OR MORE           EXCELLENT

ADI is Atmospheric Dispersion Index by LAVDAS.
LVORI is Low Visibility Occurrence Risk Index.

$$

III



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