Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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ECCDA Discussions
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
925 AM PST Sun Dec 17 2017

ECC029-181130-
Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch
925 AM PST Sun Dec 17 2017

...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING...

...POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...

...POTENTIAL FOR SANTA ANA WINDS LATER THIS WEEK...

A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event is impacting Ventura and
Los Angeles counties today, with alignment of the offshore pressure
gradient, upper level wind support, and cold air advection. Critical
Red Flag conditions can be expected for much of Los Angeles and
Ventura counties through 8 pm this evening. The strongest winds are
expected to occur this morning through early afternoon, with
damaging wind gusts of 55 to 70 mph across the mountains (including
the Santa Monicas), and gusts 40 to 55 mph across coastal and valley
areas. These powerful Santa Ana winds will bring considerable
blowing dust and ash across the area from recent fire activity. The
strong Santa Ana winds will likely bring very rapid fire spread,
long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior on the Ventura county
portion of  the Thomas Fire and any new ignitions.

Offshore winds will gradually diminish overnight into Monday
morning. There will be a return of more extensive onshore flow on
Tuesday with some improvements in humidity across coastal and valley
areas. Another upper level trough will dig through California on
Wednesday, bringing cooler conditions and higher humidities to much
of the region during the day, along with gusty west to northwest
winds. Behind this upper level trough, northwest to north winds are
expected across the Santa Barbara county mountains and south coast
late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning, when gusts of 40 to
55 mph will be possible. Gusty northwest to north winds will also
impact other mountain areas, including the highway 33 and interstate
5 corridors. The increased winds will once again bring potential
fire weather impacts for both the Santa Barbara and Ventura county
portions of the Thomas Fire late Wednesday into Thursday. Later in
the week, there is low confidence in the potential Santa Ana wind
pattern as computer models continue to widely fluctuate on the
timing, duration, and strength of the Santa Ana winds.


...Discussion from Monterey...

...Gusty northerly winds will combine with very low humidity  values
through Sunday morning...

...Red Flag Warning in effect through 10 am Sunday morning for
gusty winds and low humidity values for fire weather zones 507,
511, 512, 517, and 518...

A strong upper level ridge of high pressure will maintain
unseasonably mild temperatures and dry conditions across the
district through early in the upcoming week. Gusty northerly winds
will also persist through Sunday morning, especially in the higher
elevations where Red Flag Warnings remain in effect. A weak weather
system is then forecast to push through the district late Tuesday
into Wednesday morning and produce a slight chance of rain. However,
widespread wetting rains are unlikely with dry conditions returning
for the remainder of the week.

Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified.
Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds.



$$

ECC028-181130-
Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch
925 AM PST Sun Dec 17 2017

...POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...

...POTENTIAL FOR SANTA ANA WINDS LATER THIS WEEK...

A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event is impacting Ventura and
Los Angeles counties today, with alignment of the offshore pressure
gradient, upper level wind support, and cold air advection. Critical
Red Flag conditions can be expected for much of Los Angeles and
Ventura counties through 8 pm this evening. The strongest winds are
expected to occur this morning through early afternoon, with
damaging wind gusts of 55 to 70 mph across the mountains (including
the Santa Monicas), and gusts 40 to 55 mph across coastal and valley
areas. These powerful Santa Ana winds will bring considerable
blowing dust and ash across the area from recent fire activity. The
strong Santa Ana winds will likely bring very rapid fire spread,
long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior on the Ventura county
portion of  the Thomas Fire and any new ignitions.

Offshore winds will gradually diminish overnight into Monday
morning. There will be a return of more extensive onshore flow on
Tuesday with some improvements in humidity across coastal and valley
areas. Another upper level trough will dig through California on
Wednesday, bringing cooler conditions and higher humidities to much
of the region during the day, along with gusty west to northwest
winds. Behind this upper level trough, northwest to north winds are
expected across the Santa Barbara county mountains and south coast
late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning, when gusts of 40 to
55 mph will be possible. Gusty northwest to north winds will also
impact other mountain areas, including the highway 33 and interstate
5 corridors. The increased winds will once again bring potential
fire weather impacts for both the Santa Barbara and Ventura county
portions of the Thomas Fire late Wednesday into Thursday. Later in
the week, there is low confidence in the potential Santa Ana wind
pattern as computer models continue to widely fluctuate on the
timing, duration, and strength of the Santa Ana winds.


$$

ECC031-181130-
Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch
925 AM PST Sun Dec 17 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING...

...POTENTIAL FOR SANTA ANA WINDS LATER THIS WEEK...

A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event is impacting Ventura and
Los Angeles counties today, with alignment of the offshore pressure
gradient, upper level wind support, and cold air advection. Critical
Red Flag conditions can be expected for much of Los Angeles and
Ventura counties through 8 pm this evening. The strongest winds are
expected to occur this morning through early afternoon, with
damaging wind gusts of 55 to 70 mph across the mountains (including
the Santa Monicas), and gusts 40 to 55 mph across coastal and valley
areas. These powerful Santa Ana winds will bring considerable
blowing dust and ash across the area from recent fire activity. The
strong Santa Ana winds will likely bring very rapid fire spread,
long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior on the Ventura county
portion of  the Thomas Fire and any new ignitions.

Offshore winds will gradually diminish overnight into Monday
morning. There will be a return of more extensive onshore flow on
Tuesday with some improvements in humidity across coastal and valley
areas. Another upper level trough will dig through California on
Wednesday, bringing cooler conditions and higher humidities to much
of the region during the day, along with gusty west to northwest
winds. Behind this upper level trough, northwest to north winds are
expected across the Santa Barbara county mountains and south coast
late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning, when gusts of 40 to
55 mph will be possible. Gusty northwest to north winds will also
impact other mountain areas, including the highway 33 and interstate
5 corridors. The increased winds will once again bring potential
fire weather impacts for both the Santa Barbara and Ventura county
portions of the Thomas Fire late Wednesday into Thursday. Later in
the week, there is low confidence in the potential Santa Ana wind
pattern as computer models continue to widely fluctuate on the
timing, duration, and strength of the Santa Ana winds.


$$

ECC024-181130-
San Luis Obispo County-
Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch
925 AM PST Sun Dec 17 2017

...POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...

A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event is impacting Ventura
and Los Angeles counties today, with alignment of the offshore
pressure gradient, upper level wind support, and cold air
advection. Critical Red Flag conditions can be expected for much
of Los Angeles and Ventura counties through 8 pm this evening. The
strongest winds are expected to occur this morning through early
afternoon, with damaging wind gusts of 55 to 70 mph across the
mountains (including the Santa Monicas), and gusts 40 to 55 mph
across coastal and valley areas. These powerful Santa Ana winds
will bring considerable blowing dust and ash across the area from
recent fire activity. The strong Santa Ana winds will likely bring
very rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire
behavior on the Ventura county portion of the Thomas Fire and any
new ignitions.

Offshore winds will gradually diminish overnight into Monday
morning. There will be a return of more extensive onshore flow on
Tuesday with some improvements in humidity across coastal and valley
areas. Another upper level trough will dig through California on
Wednesday, bringing cooler conditions and higher humidities to much
of the region during the day, along with gusty west to northwest
winds. Behind this upper level trough, northwest to north winds are
expected across the Santa Barbara county mountains and south coast
late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning, when gusts of 40 to
55 mph will be possible. Gusty northwest to north winds will also
impact other mountain areas, including the highway 33 and interstate
5 corridors. The increased winds will once again bring potential
fire weather impacts for both the Santa Barbara and Ventura county
portions of the Thomas Fire late Wednesday into Thursday. Later in
the week, there is low confidence in the potential Santa Ana wind
pattern as computer models continue to widely fluctuate on the
timing, duration, and strength of the Santa Ana winds.


$$

ECC032-181130-
Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch
925 AM PST Sun Dec 17 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING...

...POTENTIAL FOR SANTA ANA WINDS LATER THIS WEEK...

A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event is impacting Ventura and
Los Angeles counties today, with alignment of the offshore pressure
gradient, upper level wind support, and cold air advection. Critical
Red Flag conditions can be expected for much of Los Angeles and
Ventura counties through 8 pm this evening. The strongest winds are
expected to occur this morning through early afternoon, with
damaging wind gusts of 55 to 70 mph across the mountains (including
the Santa Monicas), and gusts 40 to 55 mph across coastal and valley
areas. These powerful Santa Ana winds will bring considerable
blowing dust and ash across the area from recent fire activity. The
strong Santa Ana winds will likely bring very rapid fire spread,
long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior on the Ventura county
portion of  the Thomas Fire and any new ignitions.

Offshore winds will gradually diminish overnight into Monday
morning. There will be a return of more extensive onshore flow on
Tuesday with some improvements in humidity across coastal and valley
areas. Another upper level trough will dig through California on
Wednesday, bringing cooler conditions and higher humidities to much
of the region during the day, along with gusty west to northwest
winds. Behind this upper level trough, northwest to north winds are
expected across the Santa Barbara county mountains and south coast
late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning, when gusts of 40 to
55 mph will be possible. Gusty northwest to north winds will also
impact other mountain areas, including the highway 33 and interstate
5 corridors. The increased winds will once again bring potential
fire weather impacts for both the Santa Barbara and Ventura county
portions of the Thomas Fire late Wednesday into Thursday. Later in
the week, there is low confidence in the potential Santa Ana wind
pattern as computer models continue to widely fluctuate on the
timing, duration, and strength of the Santa Ana winds.


$$

ECC030-181130-
Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch
925 AM PST Sun Dec 17 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING...

...POTENTIAL FOR SANTA ANA WINDS LATER THIS WEEK...

A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event is impacting Ventura and
Los Angeles counties today, with alignment of the offshore pressure
gradient, upper level wind support, and cold air advection. Critical
Red Flag conditions can be expected for much of Los Angeles and
Ventura counties through 8 pm this evening. The strongest winds are
expected to occur this morning through early afternoon, with
damaging wind gusts of 55 to 70 mph across the mountains (including
the Santa Monicas), and gusts 40 to 55 mph across coastal and valley
areas. These powerful Santa Ana winds will bring considerable
blowing dust and ash across the area from recent fire activity. The
strong Santa Ana winds will likely bring very rapid fire spread,
long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior on the Ventura county
portion of  the Thomas Fire and any new ignitions.

Offshore winds will gradually diminish overnight into Monday
morning. There will be a return of more extensive onshore flow on
Tuesday with some improvements in humidity across coastal and valley
areas. Another upper level trough will dig through California on
Wednesday, bringing cooler conditions and higher humidities to much
of the region during the day, along with gusty west to northwest
winds. Behind this upper level trough, northwest to north winds are
expected across the Santa Barbara county mountains and south coast
late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning, when gusts of 40 to
55 mph will be possible. Gusty northwest to north winds will also
impact other mountain areas, including the highway 33 and interstate
5 corridors. The increased winds will once again bring potential
fire weather impacts for both the Santa Barbara and Ventura county
portions of the Thomas Fire late Wednesday into Thursday. Later in
the week, there is low confidence in the potential Santa Ana wind
pattern as computer models continue to widely fluctuate on the
timing, duration, and strength of the Santa Ana winds.


$$


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