Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 041149
FWSAKQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACKWATER MARSH...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
649 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN STALLS NEAR THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....NORTH WINDS 7 TO 13 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL.

TIME (EST)          11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............90  89  89  89  91  91  91
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
TSTM COV............
TEMP................52  51  51  51  51  50  49
RH..................77  71  68  66  63  63  66
20 FT WIND DIR......N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD......10  10  10  9   8   7   8
20 FT WIND GUST.....20  20  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.2 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.....N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....16  17  18  16  14  12  10
LVORI...............3   2   1   2   2   2   2
ADI.................23  28  32  28  23  19  9
CHC OF PCPN (%).....30  30  50  50  50  50  50
HAINES INDEX........2   2   2   2   2   2   2
VRATE KT-FT/1000....16  22  26  23  19  16  11

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING. A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 33.
MAX HUMIDITY........82 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....NORTH WINDS 7 TO 13 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 17 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND
                    20 MPH LATE.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL.

TIME (EST)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............94  94  94  96  96  96  97  97  97  92  92  92
WEATHER COV.........DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN
TSTM COV............
TEMP................47  46  44  43  41  39  38  37  37  36  35  34
RH..................68  68  73  73  76  79  82  82  79  82  82  82
20 FT WIND DIR......N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD......8   9   8   8   7   8   10  10  10  12  12  13
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  15  15  10  15  15  20  20  20  20  20
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....10  10  13  14  15  15  14  14  15  17  20  20
LVORI...............3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3
ADI.................9   10  11  13  14  13  12  12  14  16  17  21
CHC OF PCPN (%).....50  80  80  80  80  70  70  70  70  70  70  70
HAINES INDEX........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
VRATE KT-FT/1000....8   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   8   9   12

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
                    MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....NORTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
                    25 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2900-3600 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 18 TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EST)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............87  87  87  53  53  53  20  20  20  11  11  11
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN
TSTM COV............
TEMP................34  34  35  37  38  39  40  41  41  42  41  40
RH..................82  78  75  67  64  59  57  52  50  48  48  50
20 FT WIND DIR......N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD......13  14  14  15  15  16  16  16  15  15  14  12
20 FT WIND GUST.....20  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  20
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.9 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 2.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.....N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....20  20  22  24  25  25  24  23  22  21  20  18
LVORI...............3   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2
ADI.................23  26  36  47  56  59  60  60  57  54  50  24
CHC OF PCPN (%).....40  40  40  40  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   5   5
VRATE KT-FT/1000....15  18  30  43  57  64  68  71  67  62  57  46



FORECASTER...SCALORA
REQUESTED BY...ART CANTERBURY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160204.BLACK.01/AKQ


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