Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FNUS74 KAMA 180026
FWSAMA

Spot Forecast for JA Cedar Hills...JA Ranch
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
626 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CST on January 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (806) 335-1421, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Light west-southwesterly winds are expected at the burn site.
Relative humidity is anticipated to drop to 17 percent by the
afternoon. Haines forecast show a value of 5 (moderate potential
for a plume dominated fire) by noon and persist until 4 PM. Overnight
the winds will be come more westerly while relative humidity recovers
to 74 percent.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......0-1500 ft AGL increasing to 1000-2500 ft AGL in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (0-20000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............13     28     44     54     57
RH..............80     46     27     19     17
20 ft wind......W 6    SW 6   SW 8   SW 8   SW 8
20 ft wind gust.8      8      10     10     10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1    0.5    1.5    2.0    1.5
Transp wind dir.W      W      SW     SW     S
Transp wind spd.6      7      9      9      8
Haines index....4      4      5      5      5
VRate kt-ft/10000      3      12     16     11

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 23.
Max humidity........74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 7 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............45     35     30     27     25     24
RH..............28     43     53     60     65     68
20 ft wind......S 6    SW 6   SW 6   W 6    W 6    W 7
20 ft wind gust.8      8      8      8      8      9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1
Transp wind dir.SE     S      SW     W      W      W
Transp wind spd.7      5      5      7      7      7
Haines index....4      4      4      5      5      5
VRate kt-ft/10000      0      0      0      0      0

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......0-1000 ft AGL increasing to 2000-3500 ft AGL in
                    the afternoon, then decreasing to 1000 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph shifting to the south 12
                    to 21 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (0-42500 knot-ft) increasing to
                    good to excellent (37500-63000 knot-ft) late in
                    the afternoon, then decreasing to poor (10000
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............23     26     39     59     73     73
RH..............74     68     42     21     12     12
20 ft wind......W 7    W 7    SW 9   SW 14  SW 15  S 14
20 ft wind gust.9      9      12     20     23     20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1    0.1    0.5    1.0    2.5    2.5
Transp wind dir.W      W      W      SW     SW     S
Transp wind spd.7      6      7      12     20     17
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
VRate kt-ft/10000      0      3      10     43     38

$$
Forecaster...Morris
Requested by...Dale Smith
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1800525.0/AMA



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