Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FNUS74 KAMA 211301
FWSAMA

SPOT FORECAST FOR ICE STORM RECOVERY...BORGER OEM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
701 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 0800 CST ON JANUARY 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE RECOVERY SITE TODAY AND WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE RECOVERY SITE AS AN UPPER LOW BY THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RECOVERY SITE BETWEEN 2100 HOURS
AND 2300 HOURS CST AND WILL SHIFT THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. MAINLY CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE RECOVERY SITE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN
1000 HOURS CST TODAY AND 2100 HOURS CST TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT THE RECOVERY SITE BETWEEN 2100 HOURS CST TONIGHT AND
0600 HOURS CST SUNDAY MORNING AND COULD BECOME MIXED WITH OR CHANGE
OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN 0000 HOURS CST AND 0600 HOURS CST SUNDAY.
ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AT THE RECOVERY SITE WILL BE LESS THAN A
HALF INCH.

.TODAY...

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (0-49600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (88000 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
(138000-158400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON DECREASING TO GOOD TO EXCELLENT
                    (43000-92400 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-4000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    6000-7500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    INCREASING TO 8000 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
                    DECREASING TO 5500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 3000 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 20 TO
                    26 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN
                    DECREASING TO AROUND 16 MPH LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

TIME (CST)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............43     46     53     60     61
RH..............73     71     53     37     33
20 FT WIND......SW 8   SW 10  SW 15  SW 15  SW 14
20 FT WIND GUST.10     15     20     25     20
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     20     30     30     30
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      3      3
VRATE KT-FT/10007      50     138    158    92

.TONIGHT...

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (3500-32500 KNOT-FT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 36.
LAL.................1.
MAX HUMIDITY........92 PERCENT.
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1500 FT AGL.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTH 22 TO 24 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO NORTH 21 TO
                    25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  CLOUDY MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSN   RNSN   RNSN
TEMP............53     47     44     41     39     38
RH..............43     56     68     89     92     89
20 FT WIND......W 12   W 14   NW 16  NW 20  N 22   N 22
20 FT WIND GUST.15     20     25     30     35     35
CHC OF PCPN (%).30     30     30     30     30     30
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      3      3      3
VRATE KT-FT/100012     4      5      9      21     22

.SUNDAY...

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (7500-39900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (68000-117000 KNOT-FT)
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO
                    FAIR TO EXCELLENT (23500-64300 KNOT-FT) LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
LAL.................1.
MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT.
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-4000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    4500-5500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
                    DECREASING TO 4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2500 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 16 TO 24 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 10
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY  MCLEAR CLEAR  MCLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............37     36     44     51     56     57
RH..............85     85     55     37     27     25
20 FT WIND......N 20   NW 14  NW 14  NW 15  NW 15  NW 14
20 FT WIND GUST.30     20     20     25     25     20
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      2      2      2
VRATE KT-FT/100032     17     23     68     104    64

$$
FORECASTER...SCHNEIDER
REQUESTED BY...JASON WHISLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...OTHER
.TAG 1700453.4/AMA



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