Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2
000
FNUS73 KAPX 192015 CCA
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR FROST POCKET UNIT 3...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
415 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1500 EDT ON MAY 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATE: THE LAKE BREEZE (SE WIND) WAS CLOSE TO THE BURN SITE, IF
NOT ALREADY THERE. A SE WIND WAS REPORTED AT MIO. THE LAKE BREEZE
IS MORE THAN LIKELY NOT GOING TO RETREAT. EXPECT SPEEDS OF 4 TO 8
MPH.

UPDATE: WINDS ARE STILL DOING WHAT WAS EXPECTED, BEING HIGHLY
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION.

SURROUNDING THE BURN SITE THERE ARE:

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE BURN, WEST WINDS JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE BURN, AND SOUTHEAST WINDS (THE LAKE BREEZE)
TO THE EAST. THIS SOUTHEAST WIND (LAKE BREEZE) IS TRYING TO
MOVE IN TOWARD THE BURN SITE. HOWEVER, WATCHING THE TRENDS IN
THE CUMULUS CLOUD COVER, AM LEANING TOWARD IT NOT REACHING YOU.
RATHER...AN OVERALL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CAN PROBABLY BE EXPECTED.

EARLIER DISCUSSION:

ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY AS TO THE LAST COUPLE, WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY, PLENTY OF SUN AND NO RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
WARMER, BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. DIRECTIONS WILL BE QUITE
DIFFICULT, AS THE LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
BURN SITE, RESULTING IN A VARIABLE DIRECTION. DECENT HUMIDITY
RECOVERY TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE A NEAR MIRROR IMAGE OF TODAY,
JUST A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER.

.REST OF TODAY...

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (200) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (300).
TEMPERATURE.........71 AT IGNITION...MAX 72.
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 1 TO 3 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 8300-8800
                    FT AGL.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
RH..................20 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 19 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........47  46  46
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............71  72  72
RH..............20  19  19
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..4   3   2
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5
SMOKE DISP......200 200 300

.TONIGHT...

TEMPERATURE.........MIN 35.
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........46  40  35  29  17  11  8   3   1   2   4   4
WEATHER COV.....                                PTY PTY PTY PTY
WEATHER TYPE....                                FST FST FST FST
TEMP............71  69  65  57  50  45  41  39  37  37  36  36
RH..............19  21  25  35  52  70  85  89  92  89  89  89
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   N   NW  NW  W   W   SW
20 FT WIND SPD..2   3   3   3   2   2   2   1   0   0   1   1
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.FRIDAY...

TEMPERATURE.........MAX 74.
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RH..................MIN 20 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........5      8      8      12     24     31
WEATHER COV.....PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE....FROST  NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............35     42     59     69     71     74
RH..............96     82     49     32     25     20
20 FT WIND......SW 1   SW 1   SW 4   W 5    W 4    NW 3
20 FT WIND GUST.              10     10     10     5

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT
WINDS.
.SUNDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT
WINDS.
.MONDAY...
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON
REQUESTED BY...DON KLINGLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1600872.0/APX



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.