Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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934
FNUS73 KAPX 231733
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Elk Money...Michigan DNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
133 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 EDT on March 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989) 732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Strong sfc high is east of the region with light
southerly flow developing. These southerly winds will increase
through this afternoon with some gusts to 20 mph, while humidities
again fall below critical levels for many areas. A warm front
lifts into the srn Great Lakes later tonight and Friday morning
for around of mainly light rain and freezing rain. This will again
be possible late Friday night into Saturday morning...and again
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent).
Temperature.........40 at ignition...Max 41.
RH..................27 percent at ignition...Min 24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 8 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......500-2200 ft AGL increasing to 3600 ft AGL at
                    ignition...otherwise 3000-3600 ft AGL late in
                    the morning.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 15 mph increasing to 16 to 18 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Vent rate...........Excellent /600 at ignition. Max...excellent
                    /600/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (EDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........65  69  77  81
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............40  41  41  41
RH..............27  25  24  24
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..8   9   10  10
20 FT wind gust.20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...3.6 3.5 3.3 3.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.17  17  18  18
Haines index....4   4   4   4
VRate/100.......6   6   6   6

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain in the
                    evening, then rain and light freezing rain
                    after midnight.
Temperature.........Min 31.
RH..................Max 89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph becoming light.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........84  90  93  93  94  94  95  96  97  98  98  99
Weather cov.....        SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....        RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  FZR RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
Temp............39  38  36  35  35  34  33  33  32  33  33  34
RH..............28  31  36  40  43  49  56  61  72  75  82  82
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..8   7   6   6   6   7   7   8   8   6   5   4
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10

$$
Forecaster...Monique Runyan
Requested by...Jeff Vasher
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705061.0/APX



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