Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FNUS71 KBGM 191106
FWSBGM

Spot Forecast for COWGILL RX BURN...PA DCNR
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
706 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on April 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A pair of low pressure systems will bring unsettled conditions
beginning later today. The first system will bring showers this
afternoon into tonight with a stronger system bringing more
showers with the chance of thunderstorms by later Thursday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers late.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 7 to 12 mph with gusts up to 25
                    mph.
Mixing height.......0-1900 ft AGL...increasing to 2400-3600 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....North around 0 mph...increasing to south 18 to
                    25 mph early in the morning.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
SUNSET..............

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........68  68  72  75  79  80  81  83  84  85  87
Weather cov.....                                        SCH
Weather type....                                        RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............43  44  45  47  49  51  52  53  54  54  54
RH..............79  76  73  68  61  56  54  54  54  54  54
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   7   7   8   8   8   9   9   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  25  25  25
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.0 2.5
Transp wind dir.N   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.0   18  21  22  23  24  25  25  24  23  21
Haines index....2   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). A slight chance of
                    showers early in the evening...then a chance of
                    showers until early morning. Showers likely
                    after midnight.
CWR.................0 percent...increasing to 67 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 25
                    mph until early morning...becoming light.
Mixing height.......200-1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 18 mph...becoming west around 8
                    mph late.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
SUNRISE.............

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........89  90  92  90  91  91  91  90  90  92  95  97
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   30  30  40  40  50  50  60  60  70  70
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............54  52  51  50  49  49  49  49  49  49  49  49
RH..............57  61  66  71  77  80  80  83  86  89  89  93
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
20 FT wind spd..8   8   7   7   6   6   6   4   3   3   3   2
20 FT wind gust.25  20  20  20  15  15  15  15  10  10  5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W
Transp wind spd.18  17  15  14  13  13  12  10  10  9   9   8
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Periods of rain.
CWR.................67 percent...increasing to 84 percent in the
                    morning...then increasing to 87 percent in the
                    morning...decreasing to 0 percent in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds...becoming southeast around 5 mph
                    late.
Mixing height.......200-1300 ft AGL...increasing to 2200-4100 ft
                    AGL late in the morning...then increasing to
                    4100-5200 ft AGL in the afternoon...decreasing
                    to 3100 ft AGL late.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 8 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
SUNSET..............

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........96        97        100       96
Weather cov.....LIKELY    PERIOD    PERIOD    LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR    RAIN      RAIN      RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............70        80        90        0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............49        53        59        64
RH..............93        83        72        65
20 FT wind......W 2G5     W 2G5     N 2G5     SE 3G5
Mix hgt (ft)....200       1300      4100      4800
Transport wind..W 8       NW 7      W 6       W 6
Haines index....3         3         3         3

$$
Forecaster...Fitzsimmons
Requested by...SHAWN TURNER
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707184.0/BGM
.EMAIL shturner@pa.gov



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