Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FNUS75 KBOU 012123
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR LONGS PEAK SAR...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
323 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1500 MDT ON AUGUST 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OF OVER COLORADO
WITH WEAK WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT
OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.  DAYTIME HEATING HAS CAUSED
THE AIRMASS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE AIRMASS WILL
STABILIZE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.  A SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING CAUSING A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

THUNDERSTORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.  LOCAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2000...THEN PARTLY
                    CLOUDY(40-50%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42.
MAX HUMIDITY........73%.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2200...THEN 1.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500-7400 FT AGL UNTIL 2200. 2200 FT AGL AFTER
                    0500.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 0900...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    0700...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.
MIN HUMIDITY........50%.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN
                    SOUTHEAST 6-12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 25 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 0700...THEN 4.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3600 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 6300-7300 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST UP TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR LONGS PEAK SAR.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

08/01-15 64 14  3 58 37 NNE  6  6 2 2   N  3  8285 NNW  5 29999 P
08/01-16 65 14  3 57 38 NNE  7  7 2 2 NNW  5  7996 NNW  5 29903 P
08/01-17 65 14  3 56 39  NE  7  7 2 2  NW  6  7707  NW  5 29739 P
08/01-18 76 13  3 54 41 ENE  7  7 2 2 WNW  6  7417  NW  5 29505 P
08/01-19 68 13  3 53 44   E  7  7 2 2 WNW  5  7105  NW  3 22743 P
08/01-20 59 13  3 51 50 SSE  7  7 2 2 WNW  3  6793 WNW  2 16466 P
08/01-21 51 13  3 50 54   S  7  7 2 2 WNW  3  6481 WNW  2 10675 P
08/01-22 42  6  1 48 59   S  7  7 2 1 WNW  3  5839 WNW  2 11191 P
08/01-23 34  5  1 47 61 SSE  6  6 2 1 WNW  5  5197  NW  2 11361 P
08/02-00 28  4  1 46 63 SSE  6  6 2 1 WNW  5  4555  NW  2 11185 P
08/02-01 29  4  1 45 65   S  7  7 2 1 WNW  5  3970 WNW  3 10951 P
08/02-02 31  4  1 44 68  SW  7  7 2 1   W  3  3385   W  3 10363 P
08/02-03 32  4  1 43 70 WSW  7  7 2 1   W  2  2800   W  3  9420 P
08/02-04 33  4  1 43 70  SW  5  5 2 1 WNW  3  2506 WNW  3  7203 P
08/02-05 35  4  1 42 73 SSE  2  2 2 1 NNW  3  2211 NNW  2  5275 P
08/02-06 36 21  4 42 73   CALM  0 2 3   N  3  1916   N  2  3634 P
08/02-07 45 26  6 43 71   CALM  1 2 4   N  6  3044   N  5 11251 P
08/02-08 53 30  9 45 67   E  2  2 2 4 NNE  7  4172 NNE  6 22927 P
08/02-09 61 34 13 47 63   E  5  5 2 4  NE  9  5299 NNE  8 38662 P
08/02-10 70 38 16 50 57   E  6  6 2 4  NE  9  6187 NNE  8 41259  F
08/02-11 78 42 19 52 54   E  7  7 2 4  NE  9  7074 NNE  7 42746  F
08/02-12 86 46 23 54 50   E  8 13 2 4  NE  8  7961 NNE  6 43121  F
08/02-13 87 47 23 54 51 ESE  8 13 2 4  NE  8  7706  NE  7 45087  F
08/02-14 89 48 24 53 54 ESE  8 13 2 4 ENE  9  7452 ENE  7 46832  F
08/02-15 91 49 25 52 56  SE  8 13 2 4 ENE  9  7197 ENE  8 48357  F
08/02-16 92 50 26 51 59  SE  8 14 2 4   E  8  6550   E  8 45269  F
08/02-17 94 51 27 50 61 ESE  9 14 2 4 ESE  8  5903   E  8 41932  F
08/02-18 95 61 39 48 66 ESE  9 15 2 5 ESE  8  5257 ESE  8 38347 P
08/02-19 95 61 39 45 74  SE  9 16 2 5 ESE 12  5524 ESE 12 52647  F
08/02-20 95 61 39 42 84 SSE 10 16 2 5  SE 15  5792  SE 14 68145   G
08/02-21 95 61 39 41 89 SSE 10 16 2 5  SE 18  6060  SE 16 87837   G
08/02-22 95 61 39 43 84   S 10 16 2 5 SSE 20  5784  SE 17 86363   G
08/02-23 95 61 39 46 76   S  9 15 2 5 SSE 20  5507 SSE 17 84646   G
08/03-00 98 50 26 48 71   S  9 15 2 4 SSE 21  5231 SSE 18 82687   G
08/03-01 98 50 26 48 68   S  9 15 2 4 SSE 21  4979 SSE 18 78744   G
08/03-02 98 50 26 47 68   S 10 16 2 4 SSE 22  4728 SSE 18 74798   G
08/03-03 98 50 26 45 71   S 10 16 2 4 SSE 22  4476 SSE 18 70848   G
08/03-04 98 50 26 44 74   S 10 16 2 4 SSE 22  4225 SSE 18 66895   G
08/03-05 98 50 26 45 74   S 10 16 2 4 SSE 22  3974 SSE 18 62939   G
08/03-06 89 44 21 46 73 SSE 10 16 2 4 SSE 23  3722 SSE 18 58980  F
08/03-07 89 44 21 48 68 SSE 12 17 2 4 SSE 21  3893 SSE 17 57442  F
08/03-08 89 44 21 50 63  SE 12 20 2 4   S 20  4064   S 16 55533  F
08/03-09 89 44 21 51 61  SE 13 21 2 4   S 17  4234   S 15 53251  F
08/03-10 89 44 21 49 67  SE 13 20 2 4   S 16  4405   S 13 50597  F
08/03-11 89 44 21 46 78 SSE 12 18 2 4   S 14  4576   S 12 47571  F
08/03-12 95 74 59 43 89 SSE 12 18 2 5 SSW 12  4746 SSW 10 44173  F
08/03-13 95 74 59 42 93   S 13 20 2 5 SSW 13  4454 SSW 10 38877 P
08/03-14 95 74 59 43 89 SSW 14 22 2 5  SW 13  4162 SSW  9 33919 P
08/03-15 95 74 59 44 86  SW 14 22 2 5  SW 13  3870  SW  9 29298 P
08/03-16 95 74 59 43 92  SW 13 20 2 5 WSW 13  3578 WSW  8 25017 P
08/03-17 95 74 59 42 98 SSW 10 16 2 5 WSW 13  3286 WSW  7 21073 P
08/03-18 61 52 28 41100 SSW  9 15 2 4   W 13  2994 WSW  7 17467 P
08/03-19 61 52 28 40100  SW 12 17 2 4   W 15  3025 WSW  9 24865 P
08/03-20 61 52 28 40100 WSW 14 22 2 4   W 17  3056   W 13 32413 P
08/03-21 61 52 28 41 96 WSW 16 25 3 4   W 21  3088   W 15 40110  F
08/03-22 61 52 28 42 94 WSW 16 25 3 4   W 23  3119   W 17 47956  F
08/03-23 61 52 28 43 92 WSW 15 24 3 4   W 25  3150   W 21 55951  F
08/04-00 47 14  3 44 89 WSW 15 24 3 2   W 28  3181   W 23 64095   G
08/04-01 47 14  3 44 85 WSW 17 28 3 2   W 30  2936   W 24 62347   G
08/04-02 47 14  3 44 80   W 21 32 3 2   W 31  2690   W 25 60062   G
08/04-03 47 14  3 44 76   W 23 37 4 2   W 33  2444   W 26 57240  F
08/04-04 47 14  3 44 75   W 23 38 4 2   W 35  2198   W 29 53881  F
08/04-05 47 14  3 44 74   W 23 37 4 2   W 37  1952   W 30 49986  F
08/04-06 34 18  4 44 73   W 23 37 4 3   W 39  1706   W 31 45554  F
08/04-07 34 18  4 44 71   W 25 39 4 3   W 38  2331   W 31 62023   G
08/04-08 34 18  4 45 66   W 26 43 4 3   W 37  2956   W 31 78379   G
08/04-09 34 18  4 46 63   W 28 44 4 3   W 36  3581   W 30 94622   G
08/04-10 34 18  4 47 62   W 26 43 4 3   W 35  4206   W 30110753    V
08/04-11 34 18  4 48 63   W 24 39 4 3   W 33  4830   W 30126770    V
08/04-12 40 16  3 49 63   W 22 35 4 3   W 32  5455   W 30142675    V
08/04-13 40 16  3 51 60   W 20 32 4 3   W 32  5856   W 30149942    V
08/04-14 40 16  3 52 59   W 18 29 4 3   W 31  6257   W 29156768     E
08/04-15 40 16  3 52 59   W 16 25 4 3   W 30  6657   W 29163154     E
08/04-16 40 16  3 53 56   W 15 23 3 3   W 30  7058   W 28169100     E
08/04-17 40 16  3 54 53   W 14 22 3 3   W 29  7459   W 26174605     E
08/04-18 52 24  5 54 52   W 13 21 3 3   W 28  7860   W 26179670     E

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...DANKERS
REQUESTED BY...QUINN BRETT
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20150801.LONGS.01/BOU


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