Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FNUS73 KDMX 151357
FWSDMX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG CREEK WMA...IOWA DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
857 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON APRIL 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

AN INITIAL OBSERVATION AT IGNITION AND A MID BURN OBSERVATION ARE REQUIRED...
PLEASE RELAY THEM TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR EACH PRESCRIBED BURN.

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AROUND NOON
THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE TRANSITION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. LOW DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DROP TO NEAR 45 PERCENT AT IGNITION TIME.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5800 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 6 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO EXCELLENT (5300-62600 KNOT-FT).
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........21  24  29  32  36
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............40  43  45  47  47
RH..............41  38  36  35  37
20 FT WIND DIR..W   W   SW  SW  S
20 FT WIND SPD..6   7   7   8   8
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10
EYE LVL WND DIR.W   W   SW  SW  S
EYE LVL WND SPD.4   5   5   6   6
EYE LVL WND GST.10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.4
MIXNG WIND DIR..NW  W   SW  S   S
MIXNG WIND SPD..6   6   6   7   8
HAINES INDEX....3   4   4   5   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 36.
MAX HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 18 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2100 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 10 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AROUND 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (10200-46600 KNOT-FT).
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 18 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........44     46     41     52     58     67
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............47     44     40     39     38     37
RH..............40     47     57     59     64     70
20 FT WIND......S 9    S 10   SE 12  SE 15  S 17   S 18
20 FT WIND GUST.15                   20     25     25
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 6    S 7    SE 9   SE 11  S 12   S 13
EYE LVL WND GST.15                   20     25     25
MIX HGT (FT)....5000   3400   900    800    800    700
MIXNG WIND......S 10   SE 13  SE 14  SE 17  S 20   S 20
HAINES INDEX....4      3      3      4      4      4

$$
FORECASTER...DONAVON
REQUESTED BY...SAYLORVILLE UNIT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140415.BIGCR.01/DMX



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