Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 282146
FWSEPZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR ESCONDIDO...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
346 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1600 MDT ON JULY 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT A LITTLE MORE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FRIDAY AS MORE MOISTURE
WORKS ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ON A MINIMAL LEVEL OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE FROM A DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO WORKS ITS WAY NORTHWARD. THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD DRIFT EAST TOWARDS OVER MORE OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TOWARDS THE PLAINS.



.REST OF THE AFTERNOON...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................10-20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-21 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SSW 5 10  MPH .
MIXING HEIGHT.......-200-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 13500-13900 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 4 KNOTS.
MAX VENT RATE.......FAIR (54400 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED-SCT
                    STORMS MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................20-30 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
MAX HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) BY AFTN. ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH MORNING THEN SOUTH
                    SOUTHWEST AFTN 8-13 MPH GUST 18 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......-100-700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 13900-15800 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 KNOTS.
MAX VENT RATE.......GOOD (64400 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...NOVLAN
REQUESTED BY...GABE CASTANON
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160728.ESCON.01/EPZ



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