Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FNUS74 KFWD 252019
FWSFWD

SPOT FORECAST FOR TAWAKONI WMA...TPWD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
319 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON AUGUST 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT THE MORNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY MORNING...BECOMING EASTERLY BY NOON. BASED ON THE LAT/
LON GIVEN...IT APPEARS THAT THE PRESCRIBED BURN IS LOCATED EAST
OF LAKE TAWAKONI...SO THE FIRE/EMBERS SHOULD BE CARRIED TOWARDS
THE LAKE TOMORROW AFTER 10 AM. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE MET WITH
AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COMPARED TO
TODAY. TODAY`S MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BE
RIGHT AROUND 30 PERCENT. TUESDAY`S PROJECTED MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 40 PERCENT.

THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY MEANS AN INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS WELL.
OVERALL...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT THE CHANCE OF A STORM DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE
PRESCRIBED BURN LOCATION IS ONLY 20 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.
FEEL FREE TO CONTACT US IF YOU NOTICE BUILDING CUMULUS CLOUDS
TOMORROW FOR AN UPDATE ON STORM CHANCES NEAR THE PRESCRIBED
BURN LOCATION. OTHERWISE...FIRE WEATHER DANGER IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOW FOR THE PRESCRIBED BURN.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7100-8700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 14 MPH.
MAX HAINES INDEX....4 (LOW).

TIME (CDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........44     49     51     49
WEATHER COV.....              S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............84     89     92     94
RH..............67     56     47     43
20 FT WIND......SE 3   E 4    E 6    E 7
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....1900   4200   6500   8700
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 5   E 8    E 12   E 14
HAINES INDEX....3      3      4      4

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900-5500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600-2300 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 14 MPH DECREASING TO 2 TO 3 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MAX HAINES INDEX....4 (LOW).

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........47     44     39     34     34     37
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
TEMP............92     86     82     79     77     76
RH..............44     55     65     72     76     82
20 FT WIND......E 7    E 6    E 3    E 3    E 3    E 2
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....5500   2300   600    600    600    600
TRANSPORT WIND..E 14   SE 12  SE 7   SE 5   SE 3   SE 2
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      4      4

$$
FORECASTER...CAVANAUGH
REQUESTED BY...DARYL W  WATERS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140826.TAWAK.01/FWD






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