Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FNUS72 KILM 201534
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Orton Creek Plantation...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service WILMINGTON NC
1034 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EST on January 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
Mild temperatures for January, will prevail through early next
week. A cold front will bring rain showers Monday afternoon
through Tuesday morning. A warm afternoon Tuesday, will precede
a cooling trend Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure builds
in. The high will slip offshore Friday, setting the stage for a
warming trend next weekend,

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is favorable

Fog potential for tonight...Low

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 7 mph.
Max Mixing Hgt......1800 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 15 mph.
Max Vent Rate.......24494 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........4.
Max ADI.............31.

TIME (EST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3   6   9   10  10  11  12
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............55  57  58  58  58  56  53
RH..............36  33  32  33  36  42  51
CHC Pcpn (%)....0   0   0   0   0   0   0
20 FT wind dir..W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   7   7   7   7   6
20 FT wind gust.8   8   8   10  10  10  8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 0.9
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.10  13  14  15  15  15  13
Haines Index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VR MPH-FT*1000..10  17  24  24  22  19  12
Stability.......C   C   C   C   C   C   C
LVORI...........2   2   1   1   2   2   2
ADI.............11  22  31  31  28  25  14
Aparnt Tmp (F)..55  57  58  58  58  56  53
Sfc pres (in)...024 024 019 019 019 019 019

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 37.
Max humidity........92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening,
                    becoming light and variable.
Min Mixing Hgt......300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest 1 to 9 mph.
Min Vent Rate.......345 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........7.
Min ADI.............1.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........12  10  9   9   9   13  16  20  17  14  11  15
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............48  45  43  42  42  41  40  39  39  39  38  37
RH..............64  74  79  81  82  84  86  88  87  87  88  91
CHC Pcpn (%)....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..6   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.    6
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
Transp wind spd.9   7   6   6   6   5   5   5   3   2   2   1
Haines Index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VR MPH-FT*1000..6   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   0
Stability.......E   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   G   G   G   G
LVORI...........3   4   4   5   5   5   5   6   6   5   6   7
ADI.............6   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   1   1   1
Aparnt Tmp (F)..45  41  39  38  38  37  36  35  35  35  34  33
Sfc pres (in)...019 024 024 024 024 024 024 024 024 024 024 024

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds, becoming south around
                    5 mph early in the afternoon, then becoming
                    light and variable late.
Max Mixing Hgt......2400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 1 to 5 mph.
Max Vent Rate.......10005 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........7.
Max ADI.............13.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........18     13     10     12     13     13
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............37     43     53     59     61     59
RH..............92     78     62     55     54     58
CHC Pcpn (%)....0      0      0      0      0      0
20 ft wind......NW 4   NW 3   NW 3   SW 3   S 5    S 4
20 ft wind gust.
Mix hgt (ft)....300    300    300    1700   2300   2000
Transport wind..NW 1   NW 1   W 2    SW 2   S 3    S 5
Haines Index....4      4      4      4      3      4
VR MPH-FT*1000..0      0      1      4      8      9
Stability.......B      B      B      B      B      B
LVORI...........7      4      2      2      2      2
ADI.............1      1      2      5      10     12
Aparnt Tmp (F)..33     41     53     59     61     59
Sfc pres (in)...30.24  30.28  30.28  30.28  30.24  30.24

$$
Forecaster...Bacon
Requested by...Angie Carl
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1800644.0/ILM
.EMAIL acarl@tnc.org



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