Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FNUS71 KLWX 031750
FWSLWX

SPOT FORECAST FOR OVENTOP SEARCH  SAR...USDI - NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
150 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1338 EDT ON MAY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A POP-UP SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE A LARGE SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE AREA
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
                    AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................60 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-3700 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 1200-1500 FT
                    AGL LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO
                    13 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (3300-30500 KNOT-FT).

TIME (EDT)       6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%)..........78     72     81     82     84     86
WEATHER COV......LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE.....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP.............67     62     58     56     54     53
RH...............70     87     86     86     90     86
20 FT WIND.......NE 4   N 4    N 2    NW 2   NW 2   NW 2
20 FT WIND GUST..              4      4      4      4
CWR..............60     30     30     30     20     20
VRATE KT-FT/1000.10     3      18     31     26     15

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CWR.................20 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT IN THE
                    MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5400-6900 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (9800-42300 KNOT-FT).

TIME (EDT)       6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%)..........86     85     87     87     85     90
WEATHER COV......S CHC  LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE.....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP.............52     54     58     61     63     63
RH...............89     86     77     70     65     65
20 FT WIND.......NW 2   N 2    N 2    NE 2   E 3    SE 3
20 FT WIND GUST..4      4      4      4      4      4
CWR..............20     70     70     70     70     70
VRATE KT-FT/1000.10     17     23     23     35     42

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.
MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CWR.................70 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 60 PERCENT IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100-5000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-1200 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 8 MPH...BECOMING EAST 5 TO 8 MPH IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1200-35200 KNOT-FT).

TIME (EDT)       6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%)..........93     97     96     95     93     95
WEATHER COV......LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE.....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP.............62     58     55     53     52     50
RH...............67     80     86     89     89     93
20 FT WIND.......SE 3   SE 2   N 2    N 2    N 2    N 2
20 FT WIND GUST..4      4      4      4      4      4
CWR..............70     60     60     60     60     60
VRATE KT-FT/1000.35     24     6      1      6      8

$$
FORECASTER...ROSA
REQUESTED BY...BRIAN SIKES
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20160503.OVENT.02/LWX



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