Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FNUS74 KMAF 300000
FWSMAF

SPOT FORECAST FOR GOAT RX...LINCOLN NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
700 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1825 MDT ON APRIL 29.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS DUE TO
RH OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS...20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR MORE...
AND HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

.DISCUSSION...

THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON WINDWARD RIDGES AND WEAKEN DOWN
INTO CANYON BOTTOMS, BUT ALL WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.  DESPITE TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE 40S TONIGHT,
RECOVERY WILL BE POOR.  FAIRLY LIGHT WEST WINDS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 17 MPH AND BECOME SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
BUT RH/S WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING,
BUT COME AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  IT WILL BE COOLER
SUNDAY WITH MINIMUM RH/S OCCURRING IN THE MORNING.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46.
MAX HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS DECREASING TO 6 TO 12 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 (VERY LOW).
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (141500 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
                    (0 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LAL.................1.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............65     60     56     53     50     46
RH..............13     16     21     24     28     34
20 FT WIND DIR..W      W      W      W      W      W
20 FT WIND SPD..22     16     13     11     9      7
20 FT WIND GUST.30     25     20     16
MIX HGT (FT)....8500   2600   BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100
TRANS WIND DIR..W      W      W      W      W      W
TRANS WIND SPD..33     21     29     26     22     19
VENT CAT........VYGOOD VYGOOD POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      3      3      3

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MIN HUMIDITY........13 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO
                    14 MPH AND BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 (VERY LOW).
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (13500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (199500 KNOT-FT).
LAL.................1.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........CLEAR  CLEAR  MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............44     51     59     64     68     70
RH..............40     30     22     18     16     14
20 FT WIND DIR..W      W      W      SW     SW     SW
20 FT WIND SPD..6      7       9     11     14     13
20 FT WIND GUST.              16     18     20     20
MIX HGT (FT)....BLW100 2500   5400   7700   8900   9900
TRANS WIND DIR..W      W      W      W      W      W
TRANS WIND SPD..15     13     17     17     19     21
VENT CAT........POOR   POOR   VYGOOD EXCLNT EXCLNT EXCLNT
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
HAINES INDEX....3      3      2      2      2      2

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MAX HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 11 TO 15 MPH BECOMING LIGHT
                    TERRAIN DOMINATED IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH LATE.
HAINES INDEX........5 (MODERATE).
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (77500 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (0
                    KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LAL.................1.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............68     60     55     55     53     46
RH..............13     19     24     26     33     37
20 FT WIND DIR..SW     SW     SW     SW     NW     NW
20 FT WIND SPD..14     9      5      5       5      6
20 FT WIND GUST.20     15
MIX HGT (FT)....9300   2900   BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100
TRANS WIND DIR..SW     W      W      W      NW     N
TRANS WIND SPD..20     8      10     8      8      14
VENT CAT........GOOD   GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      5      5      5

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT IN THE MORNING.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 (LOW).
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (27700 KNOT-FT).
LAL.................1.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............42     45     49     51     53     53
RH..............40     56     75     70     65     59
20 FT WIND DIR..N      NE     NE     NE     NE     NE
20 FT WIND SPD..6      13     13     12     11     10
20 FT WIND GUST.       17     18     17
MIX HGT (FT)....BLW100 1100   2300   3100   3800   3900
TRANS WIND DIR..NE     NE     NE     E      E      E
TRANS WIND SPD..18     19     17     15     13     13
VENT CAT........POOR   POOR   FAIR   POOR   POOR   POOR
LAL.............2      2      2      2      2      2
HAINES INDEX....4      4      2      2      2      2

$$

FORECASTER...LYSTER
REQUESTED BY...NM-ADC
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160429.GOATR.02/MAF


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