Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FNUS76 KMFR 190531
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for Mt. McLoughlin Team...Jackson County Search & Rescue
National Weather Service Medford OR
1031 PM PDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Forecast is based on incident time of 1600 PDT on August 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Dry weather is expected Sunday into Monday. The tricky part of the
forecast is the visibility with all the wildfire smoke around.
Low-level smoke on north to northeast winds from the fires
burning to the north could put the top of McLoughlin above the
main smoke layer at times. Confidence in this occurring, however
is quite low, since vertical mixing is expected to get close to
the top elevation (~9500 feet) Sunday afternoon/evening. As such,
have indicated lower visibility of 1-3 miles. A shift in wind
direction (SSW) Sunday night can`t be expected to help much with
visibility either, since numerous fires are also burning in the
Siskiyous. Higher-level smoke may be able to affect the mountain
top then. Have maintained a visibility of 1-3 miles for Monday.
Wind speeds will be negligible Sunday with an uptick in wind
speeds on Monday.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny. Areas of smoke.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 percent.
SURFACE WINDS.......North to northeast 3-5 mph in the morning
                    becoming light and variable.
100 FT WINDS........North 3-5 mph.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 percent.
VISIBILITY..........1-3SM (smoke/haze).

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear. Areas of smoke.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 percent.
SURFACE WINDS.......Northeast 3-5 mph shifting to the south southwest
                    5-10 mph after midnight.
100 FT WINDS........Northeast 3-5 mph becoming south southwest 5-10 mph.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 percent.
VISIBILITY..........2-4SM (smoke/haze).

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny. Areas of smoke.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 percent.
SURFACE WINDS.......South to southwest 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
100 FT WINDS........South to southwest 10-16 mph.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 percent.
VISIBILITY..........1-3SM (smoke/haze).

$$
Forecaster...SPILDE
Requested by...Chris Duran
Type of request...SAR
.TAG 1714556.0/MFR



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