Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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401
FNUS72 KMHX 201204
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for C40...USFS
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
704 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EST on February 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will extend over the area from the north into Tuesday.
The high will slide offshore Wednesday. A cold front will move in
from the west next weekend.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......Max 3600 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 40020 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 6.
ADI.................Max 38.
Haines index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.10 to 30.17 inHg.

TIME (EST)         8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)............5   4   4   5   7   8   8   7   7   8
Weather cov........
Weather type.......
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............50  56  61  65  68  70  71  71  71  67
RH.................77  64  56  46  40  36  34  30  34  39
20 FT wind dir.....N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd.....5   6   7   7   7   6   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust....    10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)......1.4 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.6 3.2 2.7 2.3 1.9
Transp wind dir....N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   NE
Transp wind spd....8   10  13  13  12  10  9   9   8   7
LVORI..............4   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   2
ADI................6   14  24  34  38  38  36  33  31  23
Haines index.......5   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5
VRate mph-ft/1000..5   11  18  28  36  40  38  36  35  22
Stability class....F   F   F   F   B   B   B   B   B   B

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......Min 1000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 10 mph.
Vent Rate...........Min 1724 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 4.
ADI.................Min 3.
Haines index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.17 to 30.25 inHg.

TIME (EST)         6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)............11  12  14  17  18  25  38  45  43  39  37  33
Weather cov........
Weather type.......
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............62  58  55  53  51  50  49  48  47  46  45  44
RH.................48  55  61  66  68  68  68  68  71  73  76  79
20 FT wind dir.....E   E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd.....5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust....                        5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)......1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Transp wind dir....NE  E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd....7   7   8   8   9   9   9   9   9   10  10  10
LVORI..............2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4
ADI................3   3   3   4   4   4   4   6   6   5   5   5
Haines index.......4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1000..11  2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3
Stability class....B   B   B   B   B   B   F   F   F   F   F   F

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......Max 3000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 27829 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 4.
ADI.................Max 26.
Haines index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.12 to 30.25 inHg.

TIME (EST)         6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%)............26     23     26     29     31     37
Weather cov........
Weather type.......NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............43     46     55     61     64     64
RH.................82     76     59     49     45     46
20 ft wind.........NE 4   NE 5   NE 5   E 5    E 5    E 4
20 ft wind gust....5                                  5
Mix hgt (ft).......1000   1300   2000   2700   2800   2400
Transport wind.....NE 9   E 9    E 9    E 7    SE 6   SE 7
LVORI..............4      4      2      2      2      2
ADI................7      8      22     22     21     26
Haines index.......4      4      4      4      4      4
VRate mph-ft/1000..2      8      18     20     21     28
Stability class....F      F      F      B      B      B

$$
Forecaster...Collins
Requested by...David L. Nelson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702469.0/MHX
.EMAIL Davidnelson@fs.fed.us



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