Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FNUS72 KMLB 241331
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Bobs Flatwoods...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
931 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on July 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A high pressure ridge will remain across south
Florida through midweek, resulting in light south/southwest
winds. Scattered lightning storms today, with a lower
coverage of storms Tuesday, then increasing coverage again mid
week.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1200, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-1700 ft AGL increasing to 2400-4300 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 9 mph.
Dispersion index....5 increasing to 25.
LVORI...............9 decreasing to 2.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........55  55  55  55  66  66  66  66
Weather cov.....        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
LAL.............1   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............82  85  87  88  90  90  90  90
RH..............79  72  65  63  58  58  58  58
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   7   8   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.        10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 2.4 3.0 3.5 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.5   7   7   7   7   8   9   9
Dispersion idx..14  20  21  23  24  25  26  26
LVORI...........4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2000, then 1-8 strikes until
                    2300, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 77.
Max humidity........99 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening becoming
                    light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......1600-3000 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL early
                    in the evening.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 8 mph.
Dispersion index....15 decreasing to 3 early in the evening.
LVORI...............3 increasing to 8.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........66     67     67     67     39     39
Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30     20     20     20     20     20
LAL.............3      2      2      1      1      1
Temp............88     84     83     81     79     78
RH..............61     72     74     79     85     88
20 ft wind......SW 8   W 6    W 5    W 3    S 2    S 2
20 ft wind gust.10                   5
Mix hgt (ft)....3000   300    300    300    300    300
Transport wind..SW 8   SW 6   W 5    W 3    S 2    S 2
Dispersion idx..19     4      2      1      1      1
LVORI...........2      3      4      6      7      8

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1100, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph late
                    in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......300-1500 ft AGL increasing to 4700-4800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 1 to 2 mph shifting to the northeast 2 to
                    3 mph early in the morning, then shifting to
                    the southwest 5 to 6 mph in the late morning
                    and afternoon.
Dispersion index....4 increasing to 30.
LVORI...............8 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........39        34        34        48
Weather cov.....                    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                    CHANCE    CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).20        30        30        30
LAL.............1         1         3         3
Temp............79        84        91        93
RH..............85        74        58        53
20 FT wind......S 1       E 2       SW 3G5    SW 5
Mix hgt (ft)....300       1500      4100      4700
Transport wind..S 2       N 3       W 6       SW 6
Dispersion idx..2         7         26        31
LVORI...........8         3         2         1

$$
Forecaster...Johnson
Requested by...Adam Peterson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1713275.0/MLB
.EMAIL apeterson@tnc.org



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