Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FNUS73 KPAH 261351
FWSPAH

Spot Forecast for Bebout Expansion Rx...USFS
National Weather Service Paducah KY
751 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CST on February 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Favorable burn conditions will persist through early afternoon, when
minimum relative humidity values are expected.  Denser cloud cover
could cover the the prescribed burn area faster than expected and
may limit mixing slightly, keeping minimum relative humidity values
closer to 30 percent.

Rain chances will increase markedly after dusk. Mixing heights will
quickly fall below the 1700 foot threshold for smoke management and
remain below that level through at least 9 am CST on Monday.

Rainy and stormy conditions will persist off and on from Monday through
early morning on Wednesday. Favorable relative humidity values for
burn operations will not return until Thursday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........41 at ignition...Max 51.
RH..................42 percent at ignition...Min 25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds south at 7 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph early in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 600-2500 ft
                    AGL increasing to 3000-4200 ft AGL late in the
                    morning, then decreasing to 1800 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 0 to 5 mph increasing to 12 to 20 mph
                    early in the morning, then increasing to 14 to
                    22 mph in the afternoon decreasing to around 7
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............41  44  48  50  51  51  50  48
RH..............42  39  34  31  30  32  34  40
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   8   8   8   8   7   6   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 3.3 3.8 4.2 4.2 3.9 3.0 1.8
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.20  20  20  22  22  21  14  7
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Chance of rain in the
                    evening, then rain likely after midnight.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 67 percent after
                    midnight.
Temperature.........Min 40.
RH..................Max 98 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds.
Mixing height.......600-1400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 0 to 7 mph increasing to around 15 mph
                    early in the morning.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      70     70     70
Temp............46     43     42     42     42     41
RH..............45     53     57     65     70     79
20 FT wind dir..S      SE     SE     SE     SE     SE
20 FT wind spd..3      2      2      3      3      3
20 FT wind gust.5      5      5      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....900    700    800    800    900    1200
Transp wind dir.S      S      S      S      S      S
Transp wind spd.0      0      0      0      0      7
Haines index....4      4      4      3      2      2

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the morning.
CWR.................51 percent decreasing to 0 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 56.
RH..................Min 57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......1500-2700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 23 mph increasing to around 26 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............50     50     50     0      0      0
Temp............40     42     47     53     56     55
RH..............92     93     79     66     62     66
20 FT wind dir..SE     SE     S      S      S      S
20 FT wind spd..3      5      7      7      6      6
20 FT wind gust.5             10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....1500   1600   1900   2400   2700   2400
Transp wind dir.SW     S      S      S      S      S
Transp wind spd.21     22     17     15     16     22
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      2

$$
Forecaster...SMITH
Requested by...Jason Rose
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702930.0/PAH
.EMAIL jnrose@fs.fed.us



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