Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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116
FNUS73 KPAH 281308
FWSPAH

Spot Forecast for Palmer Road KY...Kentucky Fish and Wildlife
National Weather Service Paducah KY
808 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on March 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Cloud cover and northerly light to moderate northerly winds will limit
effective drying of short and longer term fuels today in the prescribed
burn area. At the ignition time, mixing heights will be right at
smoke management minimums, gradually rising through the morning and
afternoon. Relative humidity values will remain elevated through the
middle of the week.

Weatherwise, with the departure of Monday`s weather system,
a return to relatively dry weather will take place into mid week as
high pressure takes hold. However, the pattern remains active as the
approach of yet another low pressure system yields our next chance
of showers and scattered thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night.
The rain should diminish west to east on Friday with a return to
dry weather expected over the weekend. Early next week, yet another
system may affect the Heartland as the unsettled pattern continues.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........55 at ignition...Max 64.
RH..................95 percent at ignition...Min 63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds north at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    North winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1500-3400
                    ft AGL increasing to 3600-3800 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 2.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............55  57  58  60  61  62  63  63  62
RH..............95  87  84  77  74  70  71  66  70
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..6   7   7   7   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 1.9 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.7 3.8 3.6
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  N   N   NE
Transp wind spd.12  10  10  9   8   7   7   7   7
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 51.
RH..................Max 93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northeast winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light, then becoming northeast
                    5 to 6 mph after midnight.
Mixing height.......1500-3200 ft AGL decreasing to 1000-1200 ft AGL
                    early in the morning.
Transport winds.....Northeast 8 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............62     58     56     55     54     54
RH..............71     77     83     83     90     90
20 FT wind dir..N      NE     NE     NE     NE     NE
20 FT wind spd..5      5      3      3      5      6
20 FT wind gust.              5      5             10
Mix hgt (ft)....3200   2400   1800   2100   1900   1200
Transp wind dir.NE     NE     NE     NE     NE     NE
Transp wind spd.8      10     13     13     10     9
Haines index....2      2      3      4      4      4

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 69.
RH..................Min 60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......East winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1000-2900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 10 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............53     53     58     63     67     69
RH..............93     89     83     75     65     61
20 FT wind dir..E      E      E      E      E      E
20 FT wind spd..7      7      8      8      8      8
20 FT wind gust.10            10     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....1000   1600   2600   2900   2900   2700
Transp wind dir.E      E      E      E      E      E
Transp wind spd.10     14     16     15     13     12
Haines index....5      5      4      3      3      3

$$
Forecaster...SMITH
Requested by...Philip Sharp
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705350.0/PAH
.EMAIL philip.sharp@ky.gov



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