Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FNUS75 KRIW 230252
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Pole Creek Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Riverton WY
852 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 0600 MDT on September 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Prolonged period of cool/cold moist weather through at least Sunday
night as as very slow moving upper level trough combines with a
couple of nearly stationary fronts and moisture flowing into/across
the region from the south and east. Both rain and/or snow will be
found at times depending on time and day. From now through Sunday
night, expect (at least) another inch of liquid precipitation. Isolated
showers tonight will lead to a respite from precipitation for much of
today before returning to the forecast area again late this afternoon
or this evening...then persisting periodically through Sunday night
before moving out by Monday morning. Better warming and drying, however,
will not be found until mid-week next.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...

FORECASTER...Braun

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-90 percent). Isolated
                    snow or rain showers early in the morning.
                    Isolated to locally scattered rain showers
                    late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....41-46.
Min humidity........51-56 percent.
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 5-9 mph.
Ridge top winds.....Northeast around 10 mph.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Chc of wetting rain.10 percent.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL until 1200, then 7000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 12 to 14 mph .
Smoke dispersal.....Fair increasing to excellent in the afternoon.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Light rain or rain/snow
                    mix turning to light snow overnight.
Min temperature.....23-28.
Max humidity........93-98 percent.
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley 4-7 mph. Gusts up to 15
                    mph.
Ridge top winds.....East 10 to 15 mph.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Chc of wetting rain.60 percent.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......3700 ft AGL until 2400, then 1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 13 to 14 mph shifting to the east around
                    12 mph after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Snow or rain/snow
                    mix likely through the day.
Max temperature.....Around 40.
Min humidity........77-82 percent.
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 5-9 mph.
Ridge top winds.....North 5 to 10 mph.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Chc of wetting rain.70 percent.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......2200-3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Cloudy. Scattered snow showers in the evening, then chance of
snow after midnight. Lows in the mid 20s. Winds generally less
than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow. Lows in the mid 20s.
Highs in the lower 40s. Winds generally less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the mid 40s. Winds
generally less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs around 50. Winds
generally less than 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Braun
Requested by...Scott Brownlow
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1715071.23/RIW
.EMAIL Polecreek2017@gmail.com


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