Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FNUS71 KRNK 191316
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Spot Forecast for Diff Creek Natural Area Perserve...Va Dept of Conservation and Recreation
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
916 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on October 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Full sun and light winds expected for today. Dew should be gone by
by the time the surface inversion mixes out at or shortly after 11AM,
but mixing heights will remain low and combined with light winds will
limit smoke dispersion. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values
will bottom out close to 30 percent. Surface inversion will redevelop
with loss of diurnal heating after 6PM.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 2400 ft AGL early in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing winds........Southwest 3 to 9 mph.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................7, increasing to 16 late in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 10 late.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........6   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............45  51  58  61  65  69  71  73  72
RH..............79  63  52  47  42  37  35  30  35
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..2   2   3   3   4   4   4   4   3
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   10  10  10  5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.4
Mixng wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Mixng wind spd..3   7   9   9   8   7   6   6   6
LVORI...........4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............4   9   16  20  20  19  15  12  10
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-5 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 6 to 13 mph.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................6.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........0      0      0      0      0      0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............68     59     55     52     49     46
RH..............44     62     71     78     85     90
20 ft wind......SW 3   S 2    S 2    SW 2   SW 2   W 2
20 ft wind gust.5      5      5      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....1000   300    300    300    300    300
Mixing wind......SW 6   SW 8   SW 12  W 13   W 12   NW 13
LVORI...........2      3      3      4      5      6
ADI.............8      4      5      6      5      6
Haines index....4      4      5      5      5      5

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent). Patchy dense fog early in
                    the morning.
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL, increasing to 3100 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing winds........North 0 to 8 mph.
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................5, increasing to 15 late in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 4 late.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........0      0      0      0      0      0
Weather cov.....       PATCHY
Weather type....NONE   FOG    NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............45     44     56     65     72     75
RH..............93     96     74     56     42     39
20 ft wind......NW 2   NW 1   N 3    NE 3   E 2    E 2
20 ft wind gust.5             5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....300    300    1200   2100   3100   2100
Mixing wind......NW 8   NW 1   N 5    NE 7   NE 3   NE 1
LVORI...........6      9      3      2      2      2
ADI.............4      1      8      18     12     3
Haines index....5      5      4      4      5      5

$$
Forecaster...Sporer
Requested by...Reed Stanley
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717536.0/RNK



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