Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FNUS71 KRNK 041216
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Mare Run RX...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
716 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EST on December 04.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Weak high pressure will linger over the area today. A strong
cold front will arrive during the day Tuesday. Rain will accompany
the front followed by a trend toward much colder temperatures
that will remain in place for the remainder of the week.  Rainfall
amounts Tuesday will average around 3/4 inch.

Once temperatures drop below freezing later in the week, they will
likely remain there through much of the remainder of the week into
the weekend, especially at higher elevations. Some light snow is
possible, but no significant accumulation is expected at this time.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Temperature.........43 at ignition...Max 48.
RH..................58 percent at ignition...Min 46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 6 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southeast winds around 6
                    mph.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1900 ft
                    AGL.
Mixing winds........South 13 to 18 mph.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................26, increasing to 35 in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3.

TIME (EST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........32  33  34  36  39  42  45
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............43  45  46  47  48  47  46
RH..............58  54  51  48  46  47  48
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  S   S   SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4
Mixng wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Mixng wind spd..13  14  16  16  17  17  18
LVORI...........2   2   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............22  29  37  37  36  35  33
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent), then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers late. A chance of showers late.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent, increasing to 30 percent.
Temperature.........Min 39.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 18 to 25 mph.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................20.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........47     46     41     45     53     64
Weather cov.....                                   S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      10     20
Temp............45     44     43     42     42     41
RH..............49     60     64     70     77     84
20 ft wind......SE 6   S 7    S 8    S 9    S 9    S 10
20 ft wind gust.15     15     20     20     20     20
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   1100   900    800    600    500
Mixing wind......S 18   S 20   S 21   S 22   S 23   S 24
LVORI...........2      2      2      3      3      4
ADI.............17     17     18     19     20     22
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      3

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). A chance of showers in
                    the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......30 percent, increasing to 90 percent.
Temperature.........Max 51.
RH..................Min 81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 11 mph with gusts up to
                    25 mph.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 23 to 30 mph.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................32, increasing to 34 early in the afternoon,
                    then decreasing to 27 late.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........81     92     95     97     99     100
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............30     40     50     60     60     80
Temp............40     41     46     48     50     49
RH..............95     97     88     88     86     95
20 ft wind......S 10   SW 10  SW 11  SW 11  SW 10  SW 10
20 ft wind gust.20     20     25     25     25     20
Mix hgt (ft)....400    400    600    900    900    600
Mixing wind......S 25   S 28   S 29   S 30   SW 29  SW 25
LVORI...........4      4      4      4      4      4
ADI.............28     30     32     35     33     28
Haines index....4      4      3      3      3      3

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
Colder. Showers and a chance of snow showers. Lows in the upper
20s. Highs in the upper 30s. West winds around 14 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the lower 30s.
West winds around 13 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Lows around 20. Highs in the upper 20s. West winds
around 8 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Beasley
Requested by...Sam Lindblom
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719553.1/RNK


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