Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FNUS71 KRNK 240856
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Grassy Hill NAP Thimble Lane...VA DCR
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
456 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on March 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Winds will be tricky today and no greater than medium confidence. The low
level wind field will be most energetic this morning when diurnal mixing
is lowest, then diminishing later this afternoon when diurnal mixing is
greatest. Amount of cloud cover will also greatly affect ability of winds
to mix down. Believe the most likely scenario is for a surge in wind gusts
around 10AM, followed by a continued gusty character to the wind with a
slightly lower magnitude. Have adjusted the winds in this spot to reflect
this line of reasoning.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds...becoming southwest 5
                    to 9 mph with gusts up to 20 mph early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL...increasing to 2400 ft AGL late.
Mixing winds........Southwest 14 to 22 mph...increasing to 24 to 26
                    mph late.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................9...increasing to 52.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........65  63  62  62  62  61  60  59  59  59  54  57
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............37  37  39  40  45  49  52  55  58  59  61  63
RH..............60  60  61  65  58  52  51  50  49  50  49  48
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..4   4   5   6   6   7   8   8   9   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.5   10  10  10  22  22  21  21  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.4
Mixng wind dir..S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Mixng wind spd..14  15  16  18  22  22  22  21  20  22  24  26
LVORI...........3   3   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............6   11  12  20  28  37  38  37  37  42  49  55
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent)...then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph in the
                    evening...becoming light and variable.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 21 to 26 mph...decreasing to 5 to 6
                    mph.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................70...decreasing to 5.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........48     39     42     45     52     62
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............61     58     56     55     53     52
RH..............52     60     64     69     73     78
20 ft wind......SW 8   SW 6   SW 5   SW 5   SW 4   SW 4
20 ft wind gust.15     15     10     10     10     5
Mix hgt (ft)....2200   1800   1400   1000   600    400
Mixing wind......SW 26  SW 26  SW 25  SW 21  SW 13  SW 6
LVORI...........1      2      2      2      3      3
ADI.............70     12     17     14     8      4
Haines index....3      3      4      4      4      4

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds...becoming south 6 to
                    8 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL...increasing to 3600 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing winds........Southwest 6 to 14 mph...increasing to 16 to 20
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................7...increasing to 49.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........65     78     78     72     69     77
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      10     10
Temp............51     49     56     61     66     68
RH..............83     92     75     65     56     51
20 ft wind......S 4    SW 4   SW 6   S 7    S 7    S 8
20 ft wind gust.5      10     15     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....300    300    1300   2200   3000   3400
Mixing wind......S 6    SW 12  SW 16  SW 18  SW 20  SW 18
LVORI...........4      5      3      1      1      1
ADI.............4      9      26     38     48     48
Haines index....4      4      3      3      4      4

$$
Forecaster...Sporer
Requested by...C. Woodall
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705072.1/RNK


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