Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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AGAK78 PACR 272339
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT WED JUL 27 2016

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

THE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR
THE CHENA RIVER UPSTREAM OF NORDALE ROAD. THE CHENA RIVER EAST OF
NORDALE ROAD REMAINS NEAR BANKFULL WITH MINOR FLOODING IN SOME
LOCATIONS. IN THE STEAMBOAT LANDING SUBDIVISION IN NORTH
POLE...WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MINOR FLOOD STAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS ALASKA DISTRICT IS
CURRENTLY OPERATING THE MOOSE CREEK DAM. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

FLOOD WARNING FOR THE TAIYA RIVER IN THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND
SKAGWAY. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH PORTIONS OF THE CHILKOOT
TRAIL BECOMING INUNDATED.

FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY WITH HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA.
RAPID RISES WILL OCCUR ON THE SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS DRAINING THE
KIGLUAIK AND BENDELEBEN MOUNTAINS. A GLACIER-DAMMED LAKE ON EITHER

THE TAZLINA OR NELCHINA GLACIER IS LIKELY RELEASING. THE TAZLINA
RIVER HAS BEEN RISING STEADILY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. NO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EXPECTED.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE IS CURRENTLY LOW.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AKPEN... WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE ARCTIC OCEAN. THE LOW WILL BRING IN SIGNIFICANT RAINS
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ALASKA AND INTO THE INTERIOR BY FRIDAY.

FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT... HEAVIEST RAINS WILL RANGE FROM PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AREA TO NORTH PANHANDLE. UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
UPSLOPE REGIONS. MUCH OF ALASKA WILL LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY. PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR WILL RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH. FRIDAY WILL SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES FOR THE SEWARD PENINSULA... WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE
INTERIOR.

...PRECIPITATION...

SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 4 AM
TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR
======== ====                 == ==   =====
PPSA2    POWDER PATCH STATION PC RZ :  2.05
PAAP     PORT ALEXANDER       PP RZ :  1.92
ECEA2    EAGLECREST TOP CWOP  PP RZ :  1.65
PAWR     WHITTIER             PP RZ :  1.53
SAWA2    SPEEL ARM STATION 4- PC RZ :  1.46
DBWA2    DRY BAY GLACIER BAY  PP RG :  1.31
ETBA2    EAGLECREST PTARMIGAN PP RZ :  1.22
CGMA2    CHIGMIT MOUNTAINS    PC RG :  1.22
EYLA2    EYAK LAKE            PP RZ :  1.14
SPPA2    SNETTISHAM POWER PLA PP RZ :  1.11
WRYA2    WEARY LAKE           PC RM :  1.10
CGMA2    CHIGMIT MOUNTAINS    PP RG :  1.10
ANXA2    ANNEX CREEK          PP RZ :  1.10
CWWA2    CORDOVA WWTP         PP RZ :  0.99
PAJK     JUNEAU WFO           PP RZ :  0.90
SDIA2    SOUTH DOUGLAS        PC RZ :  0.88
PAJK     JUNEAU WFO           PC RZ :  0.86
MCAA2    MONTANA CREEK AT BAC PC RG :  0.83
GQIA2    QUEEN INLET GLACIER  PC RG :  0.81
PAGS     GUSTAVUS             PP RZ :  0.76
ABYA2    AUKE BAY LAB DOCK    PC RZ :  0.76
PATO     PORTAGE GLACIER      PP RZ :  0.74
MCAA2    MONTANA CREEK AT BAC PP RG :  0.74
JSBA2    SUICIDE BASIN        PP RZ :  0.74
CBHA2    CORDOVA BOAT HARBOR  PC RP :  0.74
PAYA     YAKUTAT              PP RZ :  0.73
MNDA2    MENDENHALL LAKE LEVE PC RG :  0.73
GTSA2    GUSTUVUS 2NE         PP RG :  0.68
DCSA2    DAVIES CREEK         PC R2 :  0.68
BLTA2    BARTLETT COVE        PC RG :  0.67
ECBA2    EAGLECREST BASE      PP RZ :  0.66
MHPA2    MITKOF HWY PETERSBUR PP RZ :  0.60
ESIA2    ESTHER ISLAND        PC RM :  0.60
JNAA2    JUNEAU DOWNTOWN      PP RZ :  0.55
PAPM     PLATINUM             PP RZ :  0.54

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE
INCLUDING ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHEAST.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH SLOPE.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

....................................................................

THIS TEXT PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZEUP IN THE FALL. A
GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC/GRAPHICALHMD

$$

KFM



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