Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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AGAK78 PACR 202323
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT WED SEP 20 2017

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR KOBUK RIVER FROM KOBUK TO KIANA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.  HIGH WATER WILL STILL BE MOVING DOWN THE LOWER KOBUK
RIVER... FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE SNOW GLACIER DAMMED LAKE IS RELEASING. WATER LEVELS ON THE SNOW
RIVER ARE STEADILY RISING AND ARE REFLECTIVE OF PREVIOUS OUTBURST
EVENTS. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS ON KENAI LAKE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS FLOOD THE ROAD TO PRIMROSE CAMPGROUND
AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WATCH THAT HAS
BEEN BEEN ISSUED FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION....

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONSISTS OF LARGE LOWS OVER THE ARCTIC.. THE
NORTH EASTERN PACIFIC AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. A RIDGE
HAS MANAGED TO CARVE OUT AN EXISTENCE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. ALL
OF THESE SYSTEMS SEEM TO PROGRESS EAST OVER THE NEST COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH THE MAJOR DEVELOPMENT BEING THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY
THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW EMERGES DRIVING THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS EARLY... THEN THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
GET INTO IT BY FRIDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE AS HIGH AS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES
BY FRIDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST... ALEUTIANS... KODIAK
ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA.

...PRECIPITATION...

SELECTED 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ENDING AT 4 AM AKDT TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR
======== ====                 == ==   =====
MPSA2    MOOSE PASS RR        PP RG :   0.98
PADK     ADAK                 PP RZ :   0.76
PADM     MARSHALL             PP RZ :   0.68
PANI     ANIAK                PP RZ :   0.55
PADU     DUTCH HARBOR         PP RZ :   0.52
RPTA2    ROCKY POINT SNOTEL   PC RM :   0.50
AMBA2    ANIAK SNOTEL         PC RM :   0.50
RDRA2    REINDEER RIVER RAWS  PC RG :   0.49
PANV     ANVIK                PP RZ :   0.48
EVCA2    EIELSON VISITORS CEN PC RG :   0.46
AMBA2    ANIAK SNOTEL         PC R2 :   0.44
PABE     BETHEL               PP RZ :   0.40
MCWA2    FLAT RAWS            PP RG :   0.39
PAKV     KALTAG               PP RZ :   0.36
PARY     RUBY                 PP RZ :   0.34
PAHC     HOLY CROSS           PP RZ :   0.34
PASM     SAINT MARYS          PP RZ :   0.33
TTKA2    TATITLEK             PC RM :   0.30
PRBA2    PRUDHOE BAY          PC RM :   0.30
PCRA2    PARAGON CREEK SNOTEL PC RM :   0.30
MSOA2    MUNSON RIDGE SNOTEL  PC RM :   0.30
COFA2    COLDFOOT SNOTEL      PC RM :   0.30
ATGA2    ATIGUN PASS SNOTEL   PC RM :   0.30
PAKK     KOYUK                PP RZ :   0.29
PAUN     UNALAKLEET           PP RZ :   0.28
DDHA2    DEADHORSE 3S         PP RG :   0.27
KAIA2    KAIYUH FLATS RAWS    PP RG :   0.25
DNLA2    DENALI 27N CRN       PC R4 :   0.25
DDHA2    DEADHORSE 3S         PC R4 :   0.25
CDSA2    CHANDALAR SHELF WEAT PP RG :   0.25

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE STATE. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND... COASTAL REGIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND... AND
AKPEN.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND... AND
ALEUTIANS. INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CAN
BE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

....................................................................

THIS TEXT PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZEUP IN THE FALL. A
GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC/GRAPHICALHMD

$$
ETH



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