Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 011831
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
231 PM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE LOOP CURRENT AT 26N89W.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACTIVE ALONG THE VERACRUZ COAST AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY TUE ON THE FAR EDGE OF
HURRICANE MATTHEW...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MID WEEK.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

HURRICANE MATTHEW REMAINS CENTERED AROUND 100 NM OFF THE GUAJIRA
PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA. IT HAS WEAKENED SINCE PEAKING AS A CATEGORY
5 HURRICANE LAST NIGHT. IT IS FORECAST TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTH AND MOVE TOWARD EASTERN CUBA BY TUE. THE MAIN AREA OF
SEAS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 30 FT MOVING TOWARD THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF SURROUNDING SWELL IN
EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID
WEEK AS WELL. THE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO, HISPANIOLA, JAMAICA, ARUBA, BONAIRE,
CURACAO, VENEZUELA, AND COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF MATTHEW...GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS ARE
SEEN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS
ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PARTICULARLY E OF 70W. MAINLY FRESH
NE WINDS ARE SEEN IN THE LEE OF EASTERN CUBA.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N79W TO 29N81W WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT...TRAINING
FROM CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS TO OFF THE CAROLINAS.
OTHERWISE A RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION SUPPORTING
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. 5 TO 7 FT SEAS PERSIST OUTSIDE OF THE
BAHAMAS AS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVES NORTHWARD...EXPECT INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N W OF 70W TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MON...THEN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND REGIONAL WATERS
MON THROUGH TUE THEN OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF MATTHEW AS THE HURRICANE WARNING MOVES ACROSS THE SW
N ATLC.

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ013...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING
CAYMAN BASIN...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING SUN NIGHT.
     HURRICANE WARNING MON.
.AMZ015...CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING SUN NIGHT.
     HURRICANE WARNING MON.
.AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     HURRICANE WARNING SUN INTO MON.
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO SUN.
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING SUN NIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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