Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 020637
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
237 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH THE GFS.
MWW3 AND TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH FRI THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT THROUGH FRI. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS AND
THE GEFS DO NOT SHOW WINDS INCREASING TO ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL
EARLY SAT MORNING. THE 00Z GFS AND UKMET ARE FASTER THAN THE
NAVGEM AND 12Z ECMWF. THE FASTER 00Z GFS IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE GEFS AND EC ENS MEANS THAN THE ECMWF. THE
GFS SHOWS GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE GFS AND MWW3/NWPS WERE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS AND MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE RIDGE INVOF 22N IS DRIVING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WHICH IS YEILDING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEEN IN THE 0202Z ASCAT-B PASS...WITH NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE AREA OF 20-25 KT
WINDS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND GRADUALLY SHIFT W THROUGH FRI
MORNING. AFTERWARD...INCREASED TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC
WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN...SHIFTING THE STRONGEST WINDS BACK S AND E OVER THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE GFS APPEARS REASONABLE WITH WINDS HERE AND
WITH THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES DRIVING THEM. USING THE GFS TO
ADJUST THE GRIDS ALLOWED FOR WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS TONIGHT.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH THE GFS.
MWW3 AND TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

THE STRONG 00Z GFS IS THE BEST INITIALIZED OF THE MODELS WITH THE
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS OVER NE WATERS. THE GFS HAS HAD A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM HERE OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS COMPARED TO THE WEAKER ECMWF. SEE NO REASON TO
STRAY FROM IT NOW.

A NEW COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST SAT
MORNING. AS EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE FASTER GFS
FORECAST IS PREFERRED OVER THE ECMWF WITH THIS FRONT. THE BEST
CHANCE OF WINDS EXCEEDING ADVISORY CONDITIONS COMES BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT NIGHT. THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS UP TO A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
WINDS MEETING CRITERIA N OF 30N W OF 78W. NONE OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A 25 KT WIND BARB IN THE AREA. BLENDING
THE GFS WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT YIELD WINDS THAT MEET
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL HOLD OFF ON FORECASTING A STRONG BREEZE
HERE AS A RESULT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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