Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 310736
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
336 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A 1016 MB HIGH IS POSITIONED IN THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N87W
WITH A NEARLY E TO W RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE HIGH
WILL MEANDER ABOUT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE NW TO SE ALIGNED...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LIGHT TO
MODERATE E-SE WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SE FLOW IN THE WESTERN GULF LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS IN THE EASTERN GULF AND
3-5 FT IN THE WESTERN GULF. OTHERWISE...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE W-NW COAST OF THE
YUCATAN WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS PRODUCING EVENING/OVERNIGHT SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS OF NEAR 6 FT.

LOOKING AHEAD...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE BROAD LOW PRESSURE
MOVING UP FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE SE GULF WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI...THEN LOW TO MEDIUM.

DRIER AIR ALOFT IS MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING AND LIFTING OFF TO THE NE
TAKING THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION NOW TO THE N ACROSS THE SW N ATLC
REGION. A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TRADES IN THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 4-6 FT IN THE AREA OF
STRONGEST WINDS WITH 3-5 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE E OF 75W...AND MAINLY
2-4 FT SEAS W OF 75W. THE PRESSURE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY TIGHTEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS CENTRAL ATLC
RIDGING NE OF THE BASIN REBUILDS AND AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA DEEPENS. AS A RESULT...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN COMMENCING LATE WED NIGHT
INTO EARLY THU...EXPANDING WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN INDICATING BROAD LOW PRESSURE MOVING
FROM THE S CENTRAL OR SW CARIBBEAN TO THE NW INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
LATE FRI THROUGH SAT...POTENTIALLY DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST INCREASES THIS COMING
WEEKEND DUE TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS BROAD LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN NE-E
SWELL WILL BUILD TO 7-9 FT MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WED...PERSISTING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPSTREAM TRADES
REMAIN AT FRESH LEVELS ACROSS AN IMPRESSIVE FETCH AREA.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN DECREASING.

WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE REMNANT LOW OF BONNIE
EXTENDS INTO THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE BASIN INTO THE NE
FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THIS FEATURE.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED TO THE E ANALYZED ALONG 73W.
THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS OFF TO THE SE ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS RIDING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE BASIN W OF 65W. THIS SURFACE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
LINGER ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...OCCASIONALLY WEAKENING AND THEN REDEVELOPING WHILE CENTRAL
ATLC RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO STRETCH ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N AT THE
SAME TIME. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...RELATIVELY BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. EASTERLY SWELLS
WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE SE PORTION LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

LOOKING AHEAD...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP WEAK
LOW PRESSURE E OF 70W LATE SAT INTO SUN BEFORE MOVING THE
POTENTIAL LOW NE-E OF 65W QUICKLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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