Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 160633
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
233 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS...NWPS NOT AVAILABLE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROUGH IS IN THE FAR NW AND W CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR
29N93W TO 23N97W MOVING W. ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE NEAR THE AXIS
WHILE BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA ONLY SHOW 5-10 KT WINDS AT BEST
NEAR THIS FEATURE. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH INLAND DURING THE NEXT
6-12 HOURS. WEAK HIGH PRES IN THE CENTRAL GULF 27N88W WILL DRIFT
TO THE S REACHING 25N87W THU AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT...
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE N GULF NEAR THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE SLOWLY SINKS S. THE HIGH WILL DISSIPATE IN THE SE GULF
THU NIGHT WHILE THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES THE FAR
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS BASIN-WIDE...AND PRIMARILY
1-3 FT SEAS...OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO 3-5 FT NEAR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WHEN WINDS INCREASE TO LOCALLY FRESH DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS...NWPS NOT AVAILABLE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MEETING A MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
TSTMS E OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS.

LITTLE VARIANCE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MAINLY MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED...EXCEPT GENTLE IN
THE LEE OF CUBA...AND LOCALLY FRESH IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 6 FT NEAR THE FRESH WINDS
AND MAINLY 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND
IN THE FAR E CARIBBEAN NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. NE SWELLS
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE NE
ATLC PASSAGES THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH SAT. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
TONIGHT AND WED...THEN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WED NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE WAVE PASSAGE...
OTHERWISE ONLY A BRIEF WIND-SHIFT IS EXPECTED. SEAS AT 4-7 FT ARE
PARTIALLY CONTRIBUTED BY LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE
EDOUARD. SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-7 FT THROUGH SAT IN MIXED NE AND SE
SWELL.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS...NWPS NOT AVAILABLE.
MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUASI-STATIONARY HIGH PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 29N76W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING TO THE NE TO ANOTHER HIGH CENTER JUST SW OF BERMUDA
NEAR 32N66W. SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY DATA SHOW GENTLE WINDS N OF
27N...WITH 1-3 FT SEAS W OF 71W...INCREASINGLY HIGHER SEAS FROM W
TO E...UP TO 10 FT ALONG 65W...DUE TO SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE EDOUARD. MAINLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS ARE S OF 27N EXCEPT
LOCALLY FRESH IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...ALONG WITH 3-6 FT SEAS W
OF 70W...AND 6-10 FT E OF 70W. THE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD
WILL SUBSIDE BY 24 HOURS.

THE RIDGING WILL SLOWLY SINK S-SE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS A COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DIP INTO THE NW WATERS.
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW
PORTION ON WED. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE E-SE EXTENDING FROM
BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI EVENING...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY
STALL AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT TROUGH WHICH WILL THEN DRIFT
BACK WESTWARD INTO SAT. WEAK LOW PRES MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT...
HOWEVER MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO THE N AND NOW KEEPS THE LOW
ALONG OR N OF 31N. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH N OF 27N
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS BACK UP TO 5-7 FT...
OTHERWISE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL BASIN-WIDE
THROUGH SAT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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