Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 160722
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
222 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A ridge dominates most of the Gulf waters producing mainly
moderate to fresh E-SE winds, with the exception of fresh to
locally strong winds near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula,
due to local effects induced by a thermal trough, and across the
Straits of Florida. Fresh to locally strong winds are also
expected across the NW Gulf today between the ridge and a low
pressure system over NE Mexico. Some of the buoys located across
the NW Gulf are already reporting sustained SE winds of 25 kt.
Seas are generally between 4 and 7 ft. A ridge will continue to
be in place over the next several days.

Marine guidance suggests that the next cold front will reach the
coast of Texas by Tuesday night, then stall and lift north while
dissipating. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
ahead of the frontal boundary that could affect the far NW Gulf.
Another cold front will enter the NW Gulf by Thursday night.
Southerly return flow will dominate much of the Gulf waters ahead
of this front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N
BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

Strong high pressure north of the region combined with the
Colombian/Panamaniam low will continue to support fresh to
strong NE-E winds over the majority of the Caribbean Sea,
including through the Atlantic passages, and in the lee of Cuba.
Near gale force winds are expected to continue to pulse near the
coast of Colombia each night, particularly between 0600 UTC and
1200 UTC through Wednesday night. Seas are forecast to build to
11-12 ft with these winds. The ridge north of the region will
shift southeast, become elongated, and weaken later this week.
This will allow for trades across the Caribbean to decrease by
several knots beginning Thursday.

The swell event over the western Atlantic continues to propagate
through the Caribbean passages E of Hispaniola, and across the
Tropical N Atlantic zones. Seas are forecast to subside to 7-8 ft
today.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A cold front has reached the north waters followed by gentle to
moderate northerly winds. Farther south, fresh to strong NE-E
winds continues to blow across the forecast region south of 24N,
including the waters between the Bahamas and northern Cuba and
the Straits of Florida. Seas associated with the swell event that
has been affecting the southern zones the past few days are
subsiding, and currently a pair of altimeter passes and buoys
observations indicate seas in 8-9 ft range mainly S of 24N. The
strong high pressure that has been in part responsible for
supporting the strong winds and large seas will slide southeastward
through late Tuesday while weakening. Early on Wednesday, a
ridge axis will extend across the north waters. This will bring a
decrease in winds over the southern zones through the end of the
forecast period. By Wednesday night, a cold front is forecast by
global models to approach the northern zones. Fresh to strong
SW-W winds and building seas to 9 ft are expected ahead of the
front, and mainly across forecast zones AMZ113 and AMZ115. Then,
the front will move across the NE part of the forecast area on
Thursday. Winds are forecast to further increase to near gale
force ahead of the front by Thursday morning, with seas up to
10-11 ft. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected in the
wake of the front.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.



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