Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 180825
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
116 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal trough that extends from the extreme W Florida
Panhandle to near Vera Cruz, Mexico will move NW this morning
and onshore from Louisiana to Texas to NE Mexico by this
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible mainly N
of 28N within 90 nmi of either side of the trough. Mainly
moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft will prevail
east of the surface trough as high pressure becomes established
just east of the Florida peninsula tonight through Tuesday.
Light winds can be expected W of the trough before it moves
onshore.

A weak cold front is forecast to reach the NW Gulf Wednesday and
then reposition across the northern portion of the basin from
west to east as a stationary front on Thursday. No significant
increase in winds and seas are expected with this front. However,
this front will be the focus for shower and isolated
thunderstorms. The front will then lift north as a warm front
Friday morning. During this Wednesday through Thursday night
timeframe a ridge axis will extend from Atlantic high pressure
across the southern Gulf supporting light winds and seas of 1 to
3 ft.

In the mid to long range, forecast models are in good
agreement on a strong cold front reaching the NW gulf by Friday
afternoon accompanied by showers and thunderstorms and followed
by strong NE winds through Saturday as the front moves to the
central Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

High pressure to the N of the basin will remain sufficiently
strong to support a tight pressure gradient over the central
Caribbean through Tuesday night, capable of producing nocturnal
Gale force winds north of the NE coast of Colombia. Fresh to
strong E to NE winds are expected elsewhere over the central
Caribbean, including the Windward Passage through this time
frame. The high pressure will weaken through Wednesday and will
shift SE which will diminish winds by about 3 to 5 kt over the
central Caribbean, likely keeping winds just below gale force N
of NE Colombia Wednesday and Thursday nights. The stronger winds
early this week will be supporting seas to 14 ft during the
mornings through Tuesday morning, with a large area of 8 to 12
ft extending across the central and SW Caribbean during that
time.

Elsewhere over the Caribbean, mainly moderate to locally fresh E
to NE can be expected the next several days with generally dry
conditions. Late this week forecast models are indicating that
the high pressure will re-intensify, which may bring about
nocturnal gales north of the NE coast of Colombia once again
beginning Friday night.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A weakening cold front extending from 23N65W to the SE Bahamas
will dissipate today. High pressure is building in the wake of
the front and will become centered just east of central Florida
today through Tuesday night. This pattern will support gentle
winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft N of 26N, with moderate to fresh NE
winds S of 26N, and seas of 5 to 7 ft outside of the Bahamas. The
high will weaken and shift SE Wednesday, becoming centered east
of the Bahamas near 25N70W through Thursday. This will allow for
fairly benign marine conditions across the waters S of 31N and N
of 23N during this time frame. The only exception will be the
potential of a cold front to clip the waters N of 29N, with a
brief period of fresh to strong SW winds expected to develop out
ahead of the front late Wednesday through Thursday as it quickly
moves east across our waters from north Florida to 65W.
Meanwhile, S of 23N, the periphery of the high will support
moderate to fresh NE to E winds Wednesday through Thursday. On
Friday, high pressure will build from the north in the wake of
the cold front, supporting mainly moderate E to SE winds N of
25N and moderate to fresh E winds S of 25N.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     Gale Warning early today into tonight.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.



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