Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 281046
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
645 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM AUG
28/06UTC: TROPICAL STORM ERICA IS MOVING SOUTH OF ISLA DE MONA. AS
IT PULLS AWAY...MOIST INFLOW ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI
RAPIDLY WANES. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WITH THIS STORM CLUSTERED
ACROSS SAINT CROIX-VIEQUES-SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH CONVECTION SPREADING WEST ALONG THE
CORDILLERA AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO
COULD AFFECT SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THROUGH MID
MORNING...BUT MOST ACTIVE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN FAR TO THE SOUTH.

ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO MEANDER ACROSS FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH TUTT PATTERN TO REGENERATE ONCE AGAIN
LATER DURING THE WEEKEND. AT MID LEVELS...STRONG CELL OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE IS TO DOMINATE FLOW OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC/NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES...WITH AXIS TO QUICKLY BUILD
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TS ERIKA PULLS AWAY. A FAIRLY
STRONG CAP INVERSION IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING. AT LOW LEVELS...NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECTING STRONG RIDGE PATTERN
TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

DURING MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD MODELS SHOWING A STRONG WAVE ENTERING
THE BASIN. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR STRONG/ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.

SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

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