Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS02 KWBC 260626
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
225 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

VALID 12Z SUN MAY 29 2016 - 12Z THU JUN 02 2016

...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES...

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADEQUATELY FORECAST THE SHIFT IN
THE UPPER PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TUE-THU. THE EAST WILL SEE A TREND TOWARD A BIT LOWER
HEIGHTS WHILE A SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY MEANDER OVER
THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A BLEND OF THE RECENT
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET RUNS OFFERED A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR THE CONUS
WHILE KEEPING SOME DETAIL NEAR THE SOUTHEAST.

BY ABOUT TUESDAY THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES DIVERGE ALONG THE NORTHERN
TIER -- THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES BECOME QUICKER THAN THE GEFS ENSEMBLES
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE BORDER. GFS WAS RATHER
CONSISTENT THROUGH ITS 18Z RUN WHILE THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING
QUICKER. COMPROMISE SOLUTION WAS STILL PREFERRED GIVEN SOME
CONFLICTING TRENDS. THIS TAKES THE SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
NEXT THURSDAY IN BETWEEN THE QUICKER 12Z ECMWF AND SLOWER 12Z GFS.

SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
IS WATCHING MAY APPROACH THE GA/SC COASTLINE AND EITHER SHEAR AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST OR SLOWLY DISSIPATE, BUT THE ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
SENSITIVE TO THE EXACT LOWER AND MID-LEVEL FLOW. CONSULT NHC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL TREND FROM COOLER AND WETTER THAN
AVERAGE TO WARMER AND DRIER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGING REPLACES THE INITIAL TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL
SWING FROM 5-10F BELOW AVERAGE TO 10-20F ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL TREND WARMER AS WELL EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS COASTAL CALIFORNIA WHERE THE MARINE LAYER WILL ATTEMPT TO
HOLD TIGHT.

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL STAY RATHER WET WITH
PERSISTENT/BROAD SW FLOW AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES, THOUGH A
WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY. TROUGHING TO THE NORTH SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER
FRONT INTO THE REGION NEXT WED-THU AND EXTEND THE PRECIP FOCUS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD/INTO THE GREAT LAKES. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PUSH INTO
NC/SC SUNDAY AND PROVIDE AT LEAST A TRIGGER FOR ESPECIALLY
AFTERNOON.


FRACASSO

$$





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