Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS02 KWBC 280444
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1244 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 12Z FRI JUL 31 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 04 2015


USED THE 12Z/27 ECENS MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE FOR THE FRONTS,
PRESSURES, TEMPERATURES, AND POPS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
12Z/27 ECMWF AND GDPS SUGGESTED THE BEGINNING OF A SLIGHT
RETROGRESSION OF THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE EAST TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL STATES BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THIS
RETROGRESSION WAS EVIDENT IN THE ECENS MEAN FROM THE SAME MODEL
CYCLE, THOUGH MORE DILUTED. AS A FAIRLY SHARP LONGWAVE DIGS OFF
THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD, THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE WEST
SHARPENS AS WELL, FOCUSING THE BROAD EASTERN TROUGH BACK TOWARD
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. SINCE THIS IS A NEW TREND TO THE
MEDIUM RANGE, FELT THE SOFTER EMPHASIS OF THE 12Z/27 ECENS MEAN
WAS A GOOD INTRODUCTION. MOST OF THE RAINFALL THIS PERIOD SHOULD
FOCUS ALONG THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST, FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


CISCO

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