Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS02 KWBC 301600
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1159 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

VALID 12Z TUE AUG 02 2016 - 12Z SAT AUG 06 2016

...OVERVIEW...

THE PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN RATHER STABLE THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINING
WESTERLIES ALONG/NORTH OF THE US/CANADA BORDER AND KEEPING AN
UPPER RIDGE GENERALLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
IN THE TROPICS...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO
MONITOR A TROPICAL WAVE POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PLEASE REFER TO
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.


...GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT...

DESPITE THE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...SPREAD
IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND WITH THE DETAILS OF A SECOND
POTENT UPPER LOW POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA
LATE NEXT WEEK.  THE WPC DAY 3-7 FORECAST STARTED WITH A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND...WITH MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE 06Z GFS/GEFS
MEAN...RATHER THAN THE 00Z GFS/GEFS...SINCE THE 06Z PACKAGE
ALIGNED BETTER WITH CONTINUITY AND THE LATEST CONSENSUS BETWEEN
THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/CMC/CMC ENSEMBLE MEAN.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

AREAS OF CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WITHIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO FEED INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND AHEAD/ALONG
CONSECUTIVE COLD FRONTS PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST NEXT WEEK.  HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE IT
SURGES NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY.  FLORIDA AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE
GULF COAST COULD POTENTIALLY SEE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY BEING
MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BENEATH AN UPPER HIGH
CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S....WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES SPREADING NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
PRESSING FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS
MULTIPLE CLOSED LOWS MOVE THROUGH ALOFT...AND CONTINUED MONSOONAL
ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.


GERHARDT

$$





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