Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 211229
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
828 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VALID 00Z WED OCT 22 2014 - 00Z WED OCT 29 2014

...TROPICAL STORM ANA SLOWLY MOVING AWAY...

MOISTURE, RAINFALL AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANA CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AS SHE TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE STATE. FOR
ADDITIONAL AND UPDATED INFORMATION/FORECASTS ON `ANA`, PLEASE
REFER TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AND YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WORKS OVER
THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF ANA LEADING INTO A PATTERN WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY VEERED TRADES.  THIS COULD ALLOW SOME LAND/SEA
BREEZE BASED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS FUELED BY
POOLED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD AND WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT
SETTLING INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH.

LATER, STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NNE OF THE ISLANDS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND SHOULD ALLOW A RETURN OF MODERATE ISLAND
TRADES IN A PATTERN WITH PERIODIC WINDWARD TERRAIN FAVORING
SHOWERS. THESE TRADES MAY GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
PRESSURE GRADIENTS EASE. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH RECENT GFS RUNS
AND ENSEMBLES VERSUS RECENT OUTLIER ECMWF SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE BEEN
OFFERING LESS CONSISTENT MID-UPPER LATITUDE FLOW TRANSITIONS AND
STREAM/SYSTEM ENERGY PHASINGS.

SCHICHTEL

$$




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