Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 291209
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
809 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

VALID 00Z TUE AUG 30 2016 - 00Z TUE SEP 06 2016

...HURRICANE MADELINE TO PASS VERY NEAR THE BIG ISLAND MIDWEEK...

...HURRICANE LESTER TO AFFECT THE AREA BY THIS WEEKEND...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTS A DUAL TROPICAL THREAT TO THE REGION
THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS BETWEEN HAWAI`I AND THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERLIES IN TACT ALONG 20N,
THOUGH SMALL PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW MAY STEER MADELINE JUST
SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND LESTER JUST NORTH; HOWEVER, THEIR
EFFECTS WILL BE FELT OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
BECOME A BIGGER THREAT FROM LESTER THAN MADELINE AS A TRACK NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS WOULD LIKELY BRING IN A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE REGION. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MADELINE AND THEN SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY FOR LESTER. PLEASE SEE THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION
REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK AND ALSO WFO HONOLULU.

FRACASSO

$$





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