Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 011225
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
724 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 00Z MON MAR 02 2015 - 00Z MON MAR 09 2015


...PROLIFICALLY WET PATTERN...


THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A FRONTAL ZONE AND UPPER
TROUGH WILL WAFFLE ACROSS THE HAWAI`IAN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING SOAKING SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. WITH TIME, THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM TO TRANSITION FROM MERIDIONAL
TO ZONAL, WITH AN IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE BEING THAT THE GFS LIFTS
DEEP-LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE NEXT WEEKEND VERSUS
THE SUPPRESSED ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS QPF FOR THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD
ENDING 00Z/07 SATURDAY IS 4-8" IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 5-10" IN THE TWO-DAY PERIOD
FROM 00Z/07-00Z/09. THE ECMWF IS MUCH LIGHTER--THOUGH THAT IS A
BIAS OF THE MODEL--IN THE FIRST FIVE-DAY PERIOD, AND DRAMATICALLY
DRIER FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST.


CISCO

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