Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 121153
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
753 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

VALID 00Z SUN JUL 13 2014 - 00Z SUN JUL 20 2014

THE MODELS FINALLY APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING ON THE HANDLING OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE, ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FAUSTO,
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE STATE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
THIS MOISTURE WILL REACH THE BIG ISLAND FIRST ON SUN AND CONTINUE
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA MON-TUE.  EXPECT PW VALUES TO REACH AS
HIGH AS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 2 INCHES AT SOME LOCATIONS
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING MODESTLY HIGHER VALUES THAN 00Z/06Z GFS
RUNS.  THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW
MODERATELY HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT SO COVERAGE OF HEAVY ACTIVITY MAY BE
LESS THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE THE CASE.  A STRENGTHENING EASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
TRADES FROM MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND... WHILE THE MAJORITY OF
WINDWARD SHOWERS SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AS PW VALUES DECREASE.  SOME
PERSISTENCE OF MOISTURE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AS WELL AS A WEAKNESS
ALOFT CROSSING THE STATE FROM EAST TO WEST COULD PROVIDE MODEST
ENHANCEMENT TO RAINFALL AT TIMES THOUGH.

RAUSCH

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