Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXHW01 KWNH 301149
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
748 AM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

VALID 00Z FRI MAR 31 2017 - 00Z FRI APR 07 2017

THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT IN AND NEAR THE 50TH STATE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER HAWAI`I FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK FEATURES LARGE-SCALE RIDGING IN THE HORSE LATITUDES
INITIALLY.  MODEL ISSUES APPEAR FROM TUESDAY ONWARD, AS THE 06Z
GFS HOLDS UP THE PROGRESSION OF A SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN
PACIFIC ON MONDAY, WHICH IMPACTS FRONTAL PROGRESSION INTO THE
OUTLYING ISLANDS OF THE ARCHIPELAGO.  FOR NOW, THE 06Z GFS IS
CONSIDERED A SLOW OUTLIER, AND PREFER A MORE 00Z ECMWF/00Z
CANADIAN SOLUTION FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

HAWAII SHOULD SEE A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT INTRUSION TODAY/FRIDAY
AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITHIN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT WHICH THEN DEGENERATE INTO SHEAR LINES,
WHICH WILL BRING SOME INCREASED SHOWER ON THOSE DAYS THERE BUT
OTHERWISE NOT SEEM TO IMPACT THE TRADES ACROSS THE MAIN ISLANDS.
EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO WEAKEN FROM MONDAY ONWARD AS ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF DEEP CYCLONES TO THE NORTH ERODES THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK A TOUCH LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD,
1-1.25".  PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND CONFINED TO MAINLY
WINDWARD/MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

ROTH
$$




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