Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 281141
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
740 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

VALID 00Z FRI APR 29 2016 - 00Z FRI MAY 06 2016

THE 28/00Z ECENS/GEFS AND THEIR DETERMINISTIC RUNS WERE IN
EXTREMELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 6 (5/00Z) ACROSS MUCH --- IF
NOT ALL THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE FROM THE DATELINE EASTWARD TO THE
EASTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE MODELS AGREE WITH THE
AMPLIFIED --- BUT STABLE MID-LATITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN --- WHICH
ALLOWS A STRONG RIDGE ALONG CANADA`S WEST COAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD
AND LOWER PRESSURE (TROUGHING) TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALASKA AND THE
GULF OF ALASKA.

IN TURN, THIS ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN BASIN TO
MAINTAIN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ---DURING THIS PARTICULAR
7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

CURRENT HAWAI`I FORECASTS LOOKED `ON-TARGET` --- WITH BOTH
DETERMINISTIC PIECES OF GUIDANCE (THE ECMWF/GFS) LIKELY TO ADD
SOME VALUE --- EVEN OUT INTO THE DAY6-7 PERIOD.

VOJTESAK



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